Mainz 05 vs. St. Pauli Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 22 February 2025 - bettingexpert
This coming Saturday at 14:30, Mainz 05 will host St. Pauli at the MEWA Arena in a crucial Bundesliga encounter. Mainz, sitting comfortably in 6th place with 35 points, will be aiming to solidify their European spot after an impressive run. Their last match saw them triumph 2-0 over FC Heidenheim, and with star striker Jonathan Burkardt back, Mainz should be confident. The top scorer has 13 goals so far and his return boosts their attacking options.
On the other side, St. Pauli finds themselves in 14th place with just 21 points. While they recently fell 1-0 to Freiburg, they are not to be underestimated, having shown flashes of brilliance against teams like Union Berlin.
With Mainz being the bookmaker favorites with odds of 1.79 to win, our prediction leans heavily towards a home victory. The home team’s defensive stability and strong form at MEWA Arena underscore our tip: Mainz 05 to win. This is bolstered by St. Pauli’s struggles on the road and significant injury woes.
Expect an interesting clash as Mainz eyes the three points to keep their European dreams alive, while St. Pauli fights for crucial points to distance themselves from the relegation zone.
Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Prediction & Betting tip
Our recommended betting tip for this clash is: Mainz 05 to win.
| Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Mainz 05 to win | 1.79 |
- Mainz 05’s Home Strength: The team has remained unbeaten in their last six home matches, showing strong form at the MEWA Arena.
- St. Pauli’s Away Struggles: St. Pauli has found it difficult to find form on the road and has key players out due to injuries.
- Defensive Stability: Mainz 05 has kept three clean sheets in their last five games, which provides a solid foundation for a home victory.
With Mainz 05 being the bookmakers’ favorites and their defensive stability combined with strong home form, this prediction aligns well with current trends and statistics.
Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli: Match Preview & Betting Tip
Match Context
Mainz 05 will be hosting St. Pauli at the MEWA Arena, a venue where Mainz has found significant success in recent weeks. They are unbeaten in their last six home matches, indicating a strong fortress mentality. For St. Pauli, the season has been a mixed bag, with particular struggles in away games.
Recent Form
- Mainz 05: The team is riding high on the back of their strong home performances. Their defense, in particular, has been rock-solid, conceding few goals and securing three clean sheets in their last five games.
- St. Pauli: The away form has been worrisome for them. Key injuries have impaired their squad, and they’ve struggled to find consistency on the road. Their defensive gaps and lack of clinical finishing have been exposed in previous games.
Key Factors in the Matchup
- Home Advantage: Mainz 05’s confidence at MEWA Arena is palpable. They’ve created a formidable atmosphere that visiting teams have found challenging to break.
- Defensive Stability: Mainz 05’s ability to keep clean sheets has been impressive. Their defensive setup will likely make it tough for St. Pauli’s attack, which has not been firing on all cylinders lately.
- Injuries for St. Pauli: Missing out on key players due to injuries has made their squad depth a concern. This could be a pivotal disadvantage going into such a challenging away fixture.
Betting Insight
Our recommended betting tip for this clash is: Mainz 05 to win.
| Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Mainz 05 to win | 1.79 |
| Given Mainz 05’s formidable home form, their defensive solidity, and St. Pauli’s struggles on the road, this prediction aligns well with current trends and statistics. |
Broader Narrative
For Mainz 05, this game is an opportunity to continue their upward trajectory and solidify their position in the league standings. For St. Pauli, it is a chance to defy the odds, overcome their away-day woes, and perhaps spark a revival in their season.
Both teams will undoubtedly have their sights set on the three points, albeit for different reasons. Mainz 05 is looking to bolster their stronghold at home, while St. Pauli seeks to turn their fortunes around. No matter the outcome, this clash is another chapter in the riveting narrative of their respective seasons.
Feel free to share your insights, and let’s enjoy the beautiful game!
Mainz 05 Team Analysis
Mainz 05 Recent Performance
| Mainz 05 | Away team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| FC Heidenheim | Mainz 05 | 0-2 (Win) |
| Mainz 05 | Augsburg | 0-0 (Draw) |
| Werder Bremen | Mainz 05 | 1-0 (Loss) |
| Mainz 05 | VfB Stuttgart | 2-0 (Win) |
| Union Berlin | Mainz 05 | 2-1 (Loss) |
Recent Form: WDLWL
Mainz 05 have shown commendable consistency, especially at home, where they’ve remained unbeaten in their last six encounters. Their recent performances indicate a solid defense, highlighted by three clean sheets in their last five matches. On average, Mainz 05 have been able to score 1 goal per match in these encounters. This defensive resilience has been a cornerstone of their strategy, making them a tough opponent to break down in the Bundesliga. Their tenacity at the MEWA Arena is a significant advantage going into the clash with St. Pauli.
Mainz 05 Key Players
Mainz 05 rely heavily on their star striker Jonathan Burkardt, who leads the team with 13 goals this season. Burkardt’s return to the lineup is a massive boost for Mainz, especially considering their need for an attacking edge.
In the midfield, Nadiem Amiri and Kaishu Sano are pivotal, controlling the tempo and serving as the link between defense and attack. Their vision and passing accuracy could be crucial in breaking down St. Pauli’s defense.
Defensively, Danny da Costa and Moritz Jenz are the key pillars, both of whom have contributed to Mainz’s three clean sheets in the last five games.
Expected lineup for Mainz 05:
- Goalkeeper: Robin Zentner (Doubtful)
- Defenders: Danny da Costa, Moritz Jenz, Dominik Kohr
- Midfielders: Anthony Caci, Kaishu Sano, Paul Nebel, Nadiem Amiri, Philipp Mwene
- Forwards: Jonathan Burkardt, Nelson Weiper
With Robin Zentner potentially out due to flu, the defense will need to step up even more to protect their goal. Key individual battles include Burkardt versus St. Pauli’s Eric Smith, which could determine the outcome of the match.
Mainz 05 Suspensions & Injuries
Mainz 05 are currently dealing with a few key injuries, which could impact their performance against St. Pauli. The absence of their first-choice goalkeeper, Robin Zentner, due to the flu is particularly significant. Furthermore, experienced defender Stefan Bell’s hamstring injury means the backline will need to adapt.
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Stefan Bell | Hamstring Injury | Early March 2025 |
| Robin Zentner | Flu | Doubtful |
These absences may necessitate some tactical adjustments from coach Bo Henriksen, with the onus on the defense to provide stability. Expect Anthony Caci and Moritz Jenz to step up to offset these losses.
Mainz 05 Tactics and Formation
Mainz 05 Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Jonathan Burkardt
- Midfield Duo: Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri
- Defensive Strength: Three clean sheets in the last five games.
- Notable Strategy: Strong attack during the 16-30 and 46-60-minute intervals.
Mainz 05 are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, with key midfielder Nadiem Amiri and playmaker Kaishu Sano controlling the central area. Their defensive line, led by Moritz Jenz, has shown resilience, amassing three clean sheets in the last five matches.
Returning striker Jonathan Burkardt is likely to be pivotal, aiming to add to his 13 goals this season. Mainz typically intensifies their offensive gameplay during the 16-30 and 46-60-minute marks, seeking to capitalize on periods when opponents are usually most vulnerable. With Robin Zentner’s likely absence, the rest of the defense will need to be particularly vigilant.
St. Pauli Team Analysis
St. Pauli Recent Performance
St. Pauli have shown mixed form recently, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five outings. Their recent performances indicate some defensive resilience but also inconsistencies, especially in away fixtures.
| Home team | Away team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli | Freiburg | 0-1 (Loss) |
| RB Leipzig | St. Pauli | 2-0 (Loss) |
| St. Pauli | Augsburg | 1-1 (Draw) |
| St. Pauli | Union Berlin | 3-0 (Win) |
| FC Heidenheim | St. Pauli | 0-2 (Win) |
St. Pauli have averaged 1.20 goals per game in their last five matches and managed to keep two clean sheets. However, their away form continues to be a concern, which may affect their performance against Mainz 05. Good luck to them in this challenging fixture!
St. Pauli Key Players
St. Pauli will look towards their top scorer Morgan Guilavogui, though he is sidelined with a broken ankle. This means more responsibility will fall on Johannes Eggestein and Noah Weißhaupt up front.
Expected lineup for St. Pauli:
- Goalkeeper: Nikola Vasilj
- Defenders: Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, David Nemeth
- Midfielders: Philipp Treu, Jackson Irvine, Carlo Boukhalfa, Siebe Van Der Heyden
- Attackers: Danel Sinani, Johannes Eggestein, Noah Weißhaupt
Key individual battles to watch include St. Pauli’s Jackson Irvine in midfield trying to outmatch Mainz 05’s Nadiem Amiri. Additionally, the defensive duo of Hauke Wahl and Eric Smith will aim to contain the threat posed by Mainz 05’s Jonathan Burkardt.
St. Pauli Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Simon Zoller | Calf Injury | Late February 2025 |
| Sascha Burchert | Groin Injury | Late February 2025 |
| Robert Wagner | Tendon Injury | Back in training |
| Karol Mets | Tendon Injury | About a week |
| Manolis Saliakas | Hip Injury | Early March 2025 |
| Morgan Guilavogui | Broken Ankle | Early April 2025 |
| James Sands | Broken Leg | Mid July 2025 |
| Elias Saad | Ankle Injury | Late March 2025 |
St. Pauli is facing significant injury challenges ahead of this match, with several key players sidelined. The absence of top scorer Morgan Guilavogui and the versatile James Sands will be felt particularly, as both play critical roles in attack and midfield, respectively. Moreover, the defensive unit will miss Karol Mets and Manolis Saliakas, adding more pressure on the remaining fit players to step up their game.
St. Pauli Tactics and Formation
St. Pauli’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: Expected to line up in a 3-4-3
- Key Forward: Johannes Eggestein
- Midfield Core: Jackson Irvine, Carlo Boukhalfa, Siebe Van Der Heyden
- Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games
- Notable Strategy: Focus on quick counter-attacks and maintaining a compact midfield to frustrate Mainz 05’s offensive play
With injuries impacting their squad, especially in the attacking sense with Morgan Guilavogui’s absence, expect St. Pauli to employ a pragmatic approach. They will likely prioritize defensive solidity, leveraging their versatile midfield to break up plays and transition swiftly into attack.
Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head Statistics
| Home | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli | Mainz 05 | 0 – 3 |
| Mainz 05 | St. Pauli | 2 – 1 |
| St. Pauli | Mainz 05 | 2 – 4 |
| St. Pauli | Mainz 05 | 1 – 1 |
| St. Pauli | Mainz 05 | 2 – 0 |
Looking at the last five meetings between these two sides, Mainz 05 has held the upper hand with three victories. Notably, Mainz secured an emphatic 3-0 win in their most recent encounter, dating back to October 2024. St. Pauli’s sole victory came in May 2009, emphasizing the uphill battle they face in this fixture.
Odds accurate as of 20th February 2025, 14:31, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
