Mainz 05 vs. Holstein Kiel Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 5 April 2025 - bettingexpert
An intriguing Bundesliga clash awaits at the MEWA Arena as Mainz 05 host Holstein Kiel in the 28th round of the season. Mainz, sitting 4th in the table with 45 points, are eyeing a Champions League spot and have a solid home record, unbeaten in their last nine games.
Their recent form boasts wins against Moenchengladbach and Leipzig. However, they suffered a narrow 3-1 defeat to Dortmund. Key players, including top scorer Jonathan Burkardt, will be pivotal as they face the league’s bottom side.
On the other hand, Holstein Kiel, languishing in 18th place with 17 points, struggle defensively, conceding 2.4 goals on average this season. They’ve shown resilience with a recent away win against Union Berlin but are under pressure to avoid relegation.
Considering Mainz’s home strength and Holstein Kiel’s defensive frailties, our recommended bet is a win for Mainz 05, continuing their push for European qualification.
Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel Prediction & Betting Tip
With Mainz 05 hosting Holstein Kiel at the MEWA Arena, a win for Mainz 05 looks promising for punters.
Mainz 05 have shown solid form at home, remaining unbeaten in their last nine matches. Additionally, their recent 3-0 win against Holstein Kiel earlier this season adds weight to our prediction.
On the flip side, Holstein Kiel have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game this season.
| Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Mainz 05 to win | 1.45 |
- Mainz 05 has a formidable home record, unbeaten in their last nine home fixtures.
- Holstein Kiel finds themselves at the bottom of the table and fighting relegation.
- Historically, Mainz 05 defeated Holstein Kiel 3-0 in their previous encounter this season.
Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel Odds
With Mainz 05 hosting Holstein Kiel at the MEWA Arena, the betting odds certainly show a clear preference for the home side.
| Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Mainz 05 | 1.45 |
| Draw | 4.58 |
| Holstein Kiel | 6.50 |
Mainz 05, currently in fourth place, are the bookmakers’ favorites given their impressive home record and solid form this season. On the other hand, Holstein Kiel sits at the bottom of the table and is struggling defensively, which is likely reflected in their longer odds. This disparity is largely due to the teams’ contrasting positions and performances in the league thus far.
Mainz 05 Team Analysis
Mainz 05 Recent Performance
- Always include the last 5 matches
- Recent Form: LDWWW
- Write a relevant text about the recent performances
- Include information like {Home team average goals scored}, {Home team clean sheets} and other relevant information from "Match details"
- Use a table showing Mainz 05’s last 5 results in the provided order
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund | Mainz 05 | 2025-03-30 | Bundesliga | 3-1 (Loss) |
| Mainz 05 | Freiburg | 2025-03-15 | Bundesliga | 2-2 (Draw) |
| M’gladbach | Mainz 05 | 2025-03-07 | Bundesliga | 1-3 (Win) |
| RB Leipzig | Mainz 05 | 2025-03-01 | Bundesliga | 1-2 (Win) |
| Mainz 05 | St. Pauli | 2025-02-22 | Bundesliga | 2-0 (Win) |
Mainz 05 has demonstrated solid form in recent matches, with a record of three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five games. They have managed an average of 2.00 goals per game and have kept 1 clean sheet in this span. Their offensive prowess is highlighted by Jonathan Burkardt, who has netted 15 goals this season. Overall, Mainz’s recent performances show a team capable of scoring goals consistently and maintaining a strong home record.
Mainz 05 Key Players
Mainz 05’s strong form can be attributed to their key players who consistently make an impact on the pitch. Jonathan Burkardt stands out as the top scorer with 15 goals, providing a significant offensive threat. Paul Nebel, who recently scored against Borussia Dortmund, has been crucial in midfield with his creativity and precise passing. The defensive lineup, including Moritz Jenz and Andreas Hanche-Olsen, is tasked with keeping Kiel’s attack at bay. Key individual battles to watch will be Jonathan Burkardt against Kiel’s defenders, particularly David Zec.
Expected lineup for Mainz 05:
- Goalkeeper: Robin Zentner
- Defenders: Danny da Costa, Moritz Jenz, Andreas Hanche-Olsen
- Midfielders: Anthony Caci, Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Phillipp Mwene, Paul Nebel, Jae-Sung Lee
- Forward: Jonathan Burkardt
Mainz 05 Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Stefan Bell | Hamstring Injury | Mid April 2025 |
| Player | Suspension | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Dominik Kohr | Red card | 2 matches left |
The absence of Stefan Bell due to a hamstring injury might affect the defensive stability of Mainz, considering his experience and leadership at the back.
Dominik Kohr’s suspension leaves a gap in midfield depth, and coach Bo Henriksen will need to adjust his strategy accordingly for the upcoming match.
Mainz 05 Tactics and Formation
Mainz 05 Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Jonathan Burkardt (15 goals)
- Midfield Engine: Nadiem Amiri and Kaishu Sano
- Defensive Strength: One clean sheet in the last five games
- Notable Strategy: Strong performances at home, unbeaten in the last nine home matches
Mainz typically lines up in a 3-4-2-1 formation that emphasizes midfield dynamism and solid defensive structure. Bo Henriksen prefers a back three anchored by Moritz Jenz, with Danny da Costa and Andreas Hanche-Olsen flanking him. The midfield is fortified by wingbacks Anthony Caci and Phillipp Mwene, who contribute both defensively and offensively. Nadiem Amiri and Kaishu Sano bring creativity and control in the center, while Jonathan Burkardt leads the attack, supported by attacking midfielders Paul Nebel and Jae-Sung Lee.
With injury issues affecting Stefan Bell and Dominik Kohr suspended, Mainz may need to rely more on their depth. However, their home form and recent high-scoring games suggest a solid offensive approach against Holstein Kiel.
Holstein Kiel Team Analysis
Holstein Kiel Recent Performance
Holstein Kiel’s recent form in the Bundesliga has been less than stellar, with just one win in their last five matches. They’ve drawn twice and lost twice, which shows their struggle to find consistency. Here’s how their last five games went:
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | Werder Bremen | 2025-03-29 | Bundesliga | 0-3 (Loss) |
| Holstein Kiel | Eintracht Braunschweig | 2025-03-20 | Club Friendlies | 2-2 (Draw) |
| FC Heidenheim | Holstein Kiel | 2025-03-16 | Bundesliga | 3-1 (Loss) |
| Holstein Kiel | VfB Stuttgart | 2025-03-08 | Bundesliga | 2-2 (Draw) |
| Union Berlin | Holstein Kiel | 2025-03-02 | Bundesliga | 0-1 (Win) |
Holstein Kiel averages 1.20 goals scored in their last five matches and has only managed to keep one clean sheet during this period. They concede an average of 2.4 goals per game this season, with a notable tendency to allow goals primarily between the 31st and 45th minutes.
Their defensive frailties have been apparent, conceding nine goals in their last five matches. They need to shore up their backline if they want to avoid relegation and climb out of the 18th position.
Holstein Kiel Key Players
Holstein Kiel’s key players to watch include their top scorer, Phil Harres, who has netted 8 goals this season. Harres will lead the attacking line alongside Steven Skrzybski, aiming to exploit any defensive lapses from Mainz 05.
Magnus Knudsen and Nicolai Remberg are essential in the midfield, providing both defensive coverage and creative spark. Alexander Bernhardsson adds a dynamic presence as an attacking midfielder.
Expected lineup for Holstein Kiel:
- Goalkeeper: Thomas Dähne
- Defenders: Marko Ivezic, David Zec, Marco Komenda
- Midfielders: Lasse Rosenboom, Magnus Knudsen, Nicolai Remberg, Finn Porath
- Attacking Midfielder: Alexander Bernhardsson
- Forwards: Steven Skrzybski, Phil Harres
Individual battles to watch include Harres versus Mainz’s centre-back Moritz Jenz, which could be pivotal in deciding the game’s outcome.
Holstein Kiel Suspensions & Injuries
Holstein Kiel is grappling with a slew of injuries, which could significantly undermine their performance against Mainz 05. Here’s the rundown:
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Erras | Head injury | Mid April 2025 |
| Ivan Nekic | Muscle injury | Mid April 2025 |
| Andu Kelati | Knee injury | Late May 2025 |
| Colin Kleine-Bekel | Cruciate ligament injury | Late April 2025 |
| Benedikt Pichler | Muscle injury | Late April 2025 |
With five key players sidelined, the team is stretched thin, particularly in midfield. The absence of Patrick Erras and Ivan Nekic robs the team of defensive stability, while Andu Kelati’s prolonged recovery leaves a gap in depth.
Holstein Kiel’s defense could be particularly vulnerable, considering Colin Kleine-Bekel’s injury, making their task of holding back Mainz 05 even more challenging. The team will need to rely heavily on their fit players to step up and fill these voids.
Away team Tactics and Formation
Holstein Kiel’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-1-2
- Key Forwards: Steven Skrzybski, Phil Harres
- Midfield Setup: Lasse Rosenboom, Magnus Knudsen, Nicolai Remberg, Finn Porath with Alexander Bernhardsson as attacking midfielder
- Defensive Structure:
- Backline of three: Marko Ivezic, David Zec, Marco Komenda
- Goalkeeper: Thomas Dähne
- Defensive and Offensive Insights:
- Although they’ve only managed one clean sheet in the last five games, Kiel’s formation suggests a balanced approach with defensive solidity intended from a three-man backline.
- On average, they concede 2.4 goals per match this season, highlighting a defensive vulnerability.
- Their strategy to push through the wings with Porath and Rosenboom will be pivotal, aiming to provide ample service to forwards Harres and Skrzybski.
- Kiel’s key playmaker, Alexander Bernhardsson, will be essential in creating goal-scoring opportunities from his central position.
Despite a struggling defense, the combination of this formation and reliance on their key forwards might present some challenge to Mainz 05.
Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head Statistics
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | Mainz 05 | 2024-11-24 | Bundesliga | 0-3 (Win) |
| Mainz 05 | Holstein Kiel | 2017-10-24 | DFB Pokal | 2-2 (Extra time: 1-0) |
| Holstein Kiel | Mainz 05 | 2011-12-21 | DFB Pokal | 2-0 (Loss) |
In their last five encounters:
- Mainz 05 dominated the latest match, securing a 3-0 victory.
- An intense DFB Pokal match in October 2017 ended in extra time, with Mainz 05 emerging victorious.
- Holstein Kiel surprised with a 2-0 win in their 2011 face-off.
This historical context suggests Mainz 05 has had the upper hand recently, but previous fixtures have shown Kiel can’t be underestimated.
Odds accurate as of 04.03.2025 14:32, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
