RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction - Bundesliga
Scott Thornton brings you his RB Leipzig vs Dortmund prediction preview ahead of their Bundesliga encounter on Saturday evening.
RB Leipzig have dropped to 6th in the Bundesliga, which would not be enough to secure Champions League football regardless of whether or not Germany is awarded an additional place. Marco Rose knows his team need to turn things around quickly.
Dortmund are languishing in 10th after a poor first half of the campaign under Nuri Sahin. Niko Kovac has since been drafted in but he is having a hard time changing their fortunes in the league.
RB Leipzig vs Dortmund Prediction: Head-to-Head Data Suggests Goals
Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, March 15th, 17:30 (UK)
With Dortmund sitting seven points off the top four with nine games remaining, a win is of paramount importance. Niko Kovac knows his side need the victory if they are to keep their hopes of salvaging a place in the Champions League alive. This should lead to some frantic phases in this one so over 2.5 goals appeals.
Results have been mixed since Niko Kovac took the reins at Dortmund. However, the underlying data suggests they have been unlucky. They have won the xG battle in four of their five matches under the new boss. Those games have seen them average 1.51 more expected goals than their opponents per match. If BVB can find their clinical side here, they should make a healthy contribution to overall goal count.
RB Leipzig have managed just one win in their last nine league matches. Marco Rose, who joined the club in 2022, finds himself under pressure with the club at risk of finishing outside of the top four for the first time since 2018. Beating Dortmund would get them back on track so expect to see a positive display.
The Red Bulls’ five league home matches in 2025 have seen an average of 3.8 goals per game. They have been scoring plenty but have struggled to keep the opposition out. RB Leipzig even managed to concede twice when they hosted Heidenheim, the Bundesliga’s bottom side, last month. Rose’s men will face a much tougher opponent here.
The head-to-head record between these sides also suggests we should see goals. Over 2.5 goals has won in 10 of the last 11 and those matches have seen an average of 3.91 goals. The only meeting that didn’t see at least three goals was Leipzig’s 2-0 win in the DFB Pokal back in April 2023. Dortmund won the last meeting 2-1 and the underlying data suggests their respective goal tallies were fair. As a result, backing goals looks to the way to go in this one.
- RB Leipzig vs Dortmund Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.61
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)
RB Leipzig vs Dortmund Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:24, March 14th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
RB Leipzig vs Dortmund Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Teaser
Marco Rose may choose to rotate after a poor run but he does have some options unavailable to him. Benjamin Henrichs will miss the remainder of the season with an ACL injury. Addas Ouedraogo has been ruled out thanks to a thigh injury. Xaver Schlager and Antonio Nusa will also miss the game.
Dortmund could also be forced to rotate after a difficult win over Lille in the Champions League. Carney Chukwuemeka could be in line to start if he has recovered from a thigh injury. Felix Mnecha and Daniel Svensson are definitely out injured.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Orban, Geertruida, Lukeba; Bkau, Vermeeren, Kampl, Raum; Simons, Openda, Sesko
Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Ryerson, Schlotterbeck, Can, Bensebaini; Groß, Beier, Sabitzer; Adeyemi, Gittens, Guirassy
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