Borussia Dortmund vs. Mainz 05 Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips - bettingexpert
As we head into the 27th round of the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund will host Mainz 05 at the iconic Signal Iduna Park. Scheduled to kick off at 18:30, this match promises to be an intriguing encounter.
Dortmund, sitting 11th in the league with 35 points, are the bookmakers’ favorites despite an inconsistent run. They are juggling Champions League responsibilities and facing some key injuries, notably to Felix Nmecha. On the other hand, Mainz 05 are in splendid form, unbeaten in their last six league matches, and hold an impressive 3rd spot with 45 points.
This clash may further define Dortmund’s season under Niko Kovač and give Bo Henriksen’s Mainz a shot at closing in on the top positions. With Jonathan Burkardt in splendid form, scoring 16 goals this season, Mainz are strong contenders.
Considering the current form and circumstances, our match prediction leans towards Mainz 05 winning or drawing. Don’t miss the live action on Novasports 3HD or Bet365 Live for streaming options.
Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Prediction & Betting tip
Considering the current form of both teams, our match prediction leans towards Mainz 05 winning or drawing. Let’s break this down for you:
| Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Mainz 05 to win or draw | 1.80 |
- Mainz 05 have been in impressive form, going unbeaten in their last six Bundesliga matches.
- Dortmund have been inconsistent, with more losses than wins recently, and several key players injured.
- Mainz 05 are strong contenders, sitting third in the league and having scored in 73% of their matches this season.
Based on the current dynamics and team performances, Mainz 05’s resilience might shine through against Dortmund, who are looking to balance multiple competitions.
Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Odds
With the match approaching, here’s a quick look at the betting odds for this exciting Bundesliga clash:
| Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.66 |
| Draw | 4.04 |
| Mainz 05 | 4.76 |
Borussia Dortmund are the bookmakers’ favorites at odds of 1.66, while a draw is priced at 4.04. If you fancy an upset, putting your money on Mainz 05 will give you odds of 4.76.
Given Dortmund’s recent inconsistency and Mainz’s impressive form, backing Mainz to win or draw could provide good value for punters.
Borussia Dortmund Team Analysis
Borussia Dortmund Recent Performance
- Recent Form: Wins, Draws, Losses: WDLLW
- Home team average goals scored: 1.00
- Home team clean sheets in last 5 games: 1
Here’s a look at Borussia Dortmund’s results from their last five matches:
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund | 2025-03-15 | Bundesliga | 2-0 (Loss) |
| Lille | Borussia Dortmund | 2025-03-12 | Champions League | 1-2 (Win) |
| Borussia Dortmund | Augsburg | 2025-03-08 | Bundesliga | 0-1 (Loss) |
| Borussia Dortmund | Lille | 2025-03-04 | Champions League | 1-1 (Draw) |
| St. Pauli | Borussia Dortmund | 2025-03-01 | Bundesliga | 0-2 (Win) |
Dortmund has experienced a mixed bag of results recently, with 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw. They’ve had difficulty maintaining consistent form, struggling particularly in the Bundesliga. However, their Champions League victory against Lille shows they are still a formidable opponent on their day.
Despite their ups and downs, Dortmund has only managed to score an average of one goal per game in their last five matches and maintained just one clean sheet. This inconsistency could pose a challenge against a high-flying Mainz side.
Borussia Dortmund Key Players
Borussia Dortmund will look to their top scorer, Serhou Guirassy, to lead the charge against Mainz 05. Guirassy has been in fine form, netting 14 goals this season. He will be supported by Julian Brandt in the attacking midfield role, who is known for his creativity and vision.
The expected lineup for Dortmund is:
- Goalkeeper: Gregor Kobel
- Defenders: Julian Ryerson, Emre Can, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini
- Midfielders: Waldemar Anton, Pascal Groß, Karim Adeyemi, Julian Brandt, Maximilian Beier
- Forward: Serhou Guirassy
Key individual battles to watch include Guirassy against Mainz’s solid central defender Moritz Jenz and how Julian Brandt fares against Mainz’s midfield pivot of Kaishu Sano and Nadiem Amiri. These matchups could be crucial in determining the outcome of the game.
Borussia Dortmund Suspensions & Injuries
Borussia Dortmund have a few injury concerns heading into this clash. Key midfielders Felix Nmecha and Marcel Sabitzer are sidelined, with Sabitzer out until mid-May due to a Medial Collateral Ligament injury. Cole Campbell is also nursing a knock and is expected to return in a few days.
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Nmecha | Knee injury | About a week |
| Marcel Sabitzer | Medial Collateral Ligament injury | Mid-May 2025 |
| Cole Campbell | Knock injury | A few days |
The absence of Sabitzer, a pivotal figure in the midfield, may affect Dortmund’s creativity and depth. Nmecha’s absence will also reduce their options in midfield. These injuries place additional pressure on available players to step up, particularly in such a crucial fixture.
Borussia Dortmund Tactics and Formation
Borussia Dortmund Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Key Forward: Serhou Guirassy
Dortmund’s formation focuses on solidifying the midfield while allowing for creative freedom up front. The strategy places Guirassy at the helm as the primary attacking threat, supported by a dynamic midfield trio.
- Midfield Trio: Julian Brandt (Attacking Midfielder), Karim Adeyemi (Right Wing), Maximilian Beier (Left Wing)
- Defensive Midfielders: Waldemar Anton, Pascal Groß
Defensive Setup:
- Right Back: Julian Ryerson
- Center Backs: Emre Can, Nico Schlotterbeck
- Left Back: Ramy Bensebaini
- Goalkeeper: Gregor Kobel
Defensive Observations: Only one clean sheet in the last five games, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
Attacking Strategy:
- Key Playmaker: Julian Brandt controls the tempo and orchestrates play
- High Press: Adeyemi and Beier press high and wide to stretch opposition defenses
This combination aims to balance defensive depth with attacking innovation, though recent form suggests challenges in execution.
Mainz 05 Team Analysis
Mainz 05 Recent Performance
Mainz 05 have been in stunning form recently, notching up an impressive undefeated streak in their last five Bundesliga matches. The team has averaged 2.20 goals per game and has managed to secure two clean sheets in this period, showcasing both offensive firepower and defensive solidity.
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | Freiburg | 2025-03-15 | Bundesliga | 2-2 (Draw) |
| Borussia M’gladbach | Mainz 05 | 2025-03-07 | Bundesliga | 1-3 (Win) |
| RB Leipzig | Mainz 05 | 2025-03-01 | Bundesliga | 1-2 (Win) |
| Mainz 05 | St. Pauli | 2025-02-22 | Bundesliga | 2-0 (Win) |
| FC Heidenheim | Mainz 05 | 2025-02-16 | Bundesliga | 0-2 (Win) |
Key highlights from this streak include a strong 3-1 away win against Borussia Mönchengladbach and a solid 2-0 home victory over St. Pauli. This consistency has played a significant role in Mainz’s impressive 3rd place standing in the Bundesliga up to this point.
Mainz’s ability to perform under pressure, combined with their tactical discipline, makes them a formidable opponent for any team in the league.
Mainz 05 Key Players
Mainz 05 have been led brilliantly by their top scorer, Jonathan Burkardt, who has found the back of the net 15 times this season. His attacking prowess will be crucial against Borussia Dortmund’s defence. Additionally, the midfield maestro Nadiem Amiri has been pulling strings from the centre of the park, contributing to Mainz’s solid form.
Expected lineup for Mainz 05:
- Goalkeeper: Robin Zentner
- Defenders: Danny da Costa, Moritz Jenz, Andreas Hanche-Olsen
- Midfielders: Silvan Widmer, Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Anthony Caci
- Attackers: Paul Nebel, Jae-Sung Lee, Jonathan Burkardt
Key individual battles to watch out for include Burkardt up against Dortmund’s centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck, which could be decisive in the outcome of the match.
Mainz 05 Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Stefan Bell | Hamstring Injury | Early April 2025 |
| Lennard Maloney | Flu | Doubtful |
| Player | Suspension | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Dominik Kohr | Red card | 2 matches left |
| Phillipp Mwene | Yellow cards | 1 match left |
Mainz 05 are set to miss key players due to suspensions and injuries. Dominik Kohr’s red card suspension means they will lack his defensive prowess for the next two matches, while Phillipp Mwene will also sit out due to yellow card accumulation.
Meanwhile, the impending return of Stefan Bell from a hamstring injury is encouraging, but he won’t be available against Dortmund. Lennard Maloney’s flu also adds uncertainty to their squad depth. These absences could significantly impact their defensive stability and overall performance.
Mainz 05 Tactics and Formation
Mainz 05’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Jonathan Burkardt
- Midfield Strength: Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Paul Nebel, Jae-Sung Lee
- Defensive Robustness: Two clean sheets in the last five games
Mainz 05 prefers a 3-4-2-1 formation under the guidance of Bo Henriksen. With Jonathan Burkardt leading the line, they rely heavily on his goal-scoring prowess (15 goals this season). The midfield is bolstered by the likes of Kaishu Sano and Nadiem Amiri, who provide stability and creativity.
Their defensive setup, despite the absences, remains solid, having kept two clean sheets in their last five matches. The wing-backs, Silvan Widmer and Anthony Caci, are vital in transitioning from defense to attack.
Notable Strategy: Mainz 05 is known for their strong attacking phases between the 61st and 75th minutes, often using high pressing to capitalize on opposition fatigue.
Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head Statistics
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | Borussia Dortmund | 2024-11-09 | Bundesliga | 3-1 (Win) |
| Mainz 05 | Borussia Dortmund | 2024-05-11 | Bundesliga | 3-0 (Win) |
| Borussia Dortmund | Mainz 05 | 2023-12-19 | Bundesliga | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Borussia Dortmund | Mainz 05 | 2023-05-27 | Bundesliga | 2-2 (Draw) |
| Mainz 05 | Borussia Dortmund | 2023-01-25 | Bundesliga | 1-2 (Loss) |
Borussia Dortmund and Mainz 05 have faced each other five times in the last two seasons. Mainz 05 has dominated recent encounters, winning two out of the last three matches and drawing the other two.
Dortmund’s sole victory came in early 2023, highlighting a shift in the balance between the teams. Despite playing at home, Dortmund will be wary of Mainz’s strong away form.
Odds accurate as of 28.03.2025 15:31, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any {bookmaker}.
