Mainz 05 vs. Freiburg Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 15 March 2025 - bettingexpert
Saturday’s Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Freiburg promises to be a riveting encounter at the MEWA Arena.
Mainz, currently third in the league with 44 points, have been in superb form, unbeaten in their last five matches. They’ve climbed the standings with crucial recent wins against Borussia Moenchengladbach and RB Leipzig. An impressive streak of three clean sheets in the last five games will boost their confidence further.
Meanwhile, Freiburg, positioned fifth with 41 points, have also showcased defensive resilience, having maintained four clean sheets in their previous five outings. Though they managed only a 0-0 draw against Leipzig last week, they remain strong contenders for a top-four finish under the stewardship of Julian Schuster.
Both teams have demonstrated stout defenses, hinting at a potentially tight and low-scoring game. Mainz’s Jonathan Burkardt and Freiburg’s Vincenzo Grifo will be key players to watch, being the top scorers for their respective sides.
Considering recent form and historic results, a draw seems a probable outcome, yet both teams possess the potential to clinch a win. This match is more than just another league game – it’s a critical battle in the race for Champions League spots.
Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tip
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| Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.75 |
- Both teams have strong defenses, with Mainz keeping three clean sheets and Freiburg four in their last five games.
- Historically, matches between these sides have been low-scoring, with less than 2.5 goals in 78% of their encounters over the past five seasons.
- Both teams are close on the league table, and a cautious approach is likely, making a low-scoring game probable.
Betting on under 2.5 goals appears to be the prudent choice given the current form and defensive capabilities of Mainz 05 and Freiburg. This tip is further bolstered by the historical tendency for low-scoring outcomes in their encounters.
Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Odds
The odds slightly favor Mainz 05 in this upcoming Bundesliga clash. Here’s how the bookmaker odds shape up:
| Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Mainz 05 | 1.99 |
| Draw | 3.38 |
| Freiburg | 3.83 |
Mainz 05, sitting in 3rd place, are on a solid run, making them the favorites. Freiburg, although strong defensively, face long odds to secure a victory away from home. With both teams exhibiting strong defensive records, the odds for a draw are also quite significant, reflecting the balanced nature of the matchup.
Mainz 05 Team Analysis
Mainz 05 Recent Performance
Mainz 05 are riding high, showcasing robust performance in their last five matches, securing four wins and one draw. This solid run has catapulted them to 3rd place in the Bundesliga standings.
| Home team | Away team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Moenchengladbach | Mainz 05 | 1-3 (Win) |
| RB Leipzig | Mainz 05 | 1-2 (Win) |
| Mainz 05 | St. Pauli | 2-0 (Win) |
| FC Heidenheim | Mainz 05 | 0-2 (Win) |
| Mainz 05 | Augsburg | 0-0 (Draw) |
Mainz 05 have maintained three clean sheets in their last five games, underscoring their solid defensive prowess. They have also demonstrated a respectable scoring rate with an average of 1.80 goals per match during the same period, hinting at a balanced and disciplined side under Bo Henriksen’s guidance.
Expect Mainz to deploy this mixture of robust defense and efficient attack against Freiburg.
Mainz 05 Key Players
Mainz 05 has several standout players who could make a significant impact in this match. Jonathan Burkardt, the team’s top scorer with 14 goals, will be a focal point in attack. He’ll be supported by Jae-Sung Lee and Paul Nebel, who offer creativity and pace on the flanks.
In midfield, Nadiem Amiri and Kaishu Sano will be pivotal in controlling the game’s tempo. At the back, Moritz Jenz and Dominik Kohr aim to maintain their strong defensive record.
Expected lineup for Mainz 05:
- Goalkeeper: Robin Zentner
- Defenders: Danny da Costa, Moritz Jenz, Dominik Kohr
- Midfielders: Anthony Caci, Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Philipp Mwene
- Attackers: Paul Nebel, Jonathan Burkardt, Jae-Sung Lee
Key battles will include Burkardt against Freiburg’s center-backs, Ginter and Lienhart, who have been solid recently.
Mainz 05 Suspensions & Injuries
Mainz 05 have only one injury concern heading into this match, with veteran defender Stefan Bell sidelined due to a hamstring injury. He is expected to return in late March 2025.
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Stefan Bell | Hamstring Injury | Late March 2025 |
Bell’s absence may impact Mainz’s defensive solidity, but their recent form suggests that their backline has been managing well without him.
The lack of suspensions allows Bo Henriksen to field a strong lineup, maintaining their defensive resilience and attacking depth. This continuity could be crucial as they aim to retain their spot in the upper echelons of the Bundesliga table.
Mainz 05 Tactics and Formation
Mainz 05 Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-3
- Key Forward: Jonathan Burkardt
- Midfield Duo: Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri
- Defensive Line: Maxim Leitsch, Moritz Jenz, Dominik Kohr
- Wing Play: Anthony Caci, Philipp Mwene
Defensive Strength:
- Mainz 05 boast three clean sheets in their last five games, showcasing their defensive resilience.
Attacking Strategy:
- With Jonathan Burkardt leading the line, Mainz aim to capitalize on his goal-scoring prowess (14 goals this season).
- Emphasis on wing play with Caci and Mwene providing width and crossing opportunities.
Game Plan:
- Control the midfield with Sano and Amiri, enabling quick transition plays.
- Focus on exploiting vulnerable periods for Freiburg, particularly during the 61-75 and 76-90-minute intervals, where they have conceded most goals.
Mainz 05’s tactical preparation and form make them formidable hosts.
Freiburg Team Analysis
Freiburg Recent Performance
Freiburg have shown solid form recently. Their last five games include three wins and two draws:
| Home team | Away team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | RB Leipzig | 0-0 (Draw) |
| Augsburg | Freiburg | 0-0 (Draw) |
| Freiburg | Werder Bremen | 5-0 (Win) |
| St. Pauli | Freiburg | 0-1 (Win) |
| Freiburg | FC Heidenheim | 1-0 (Win) |
Recent Form: DDWWW
Freiburg have kept clean sheets in four of their last five matches, demonstrating defensive solidity.
On average, they have scored 1.40 goals per game in these fixtures.
Their defense will be crucial in the upcoming match, especially against a high-flying Mainz side.
Freiburg Key Players
Expected lineup for Freiburg:
- Goalkeeper: Noah Atubolu
- Defenders: Kiliann Sildillia, Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart, Christian Günter
- Midfielders: Maximilian Eggestein, Patrick Osterhage, Ritsu Doan, Lucas Höler, Eren Dinkçi
- Forward: Junior Adamu
Freiburg’s key players include Vincenzo Grifo, their top scorer with 8 goals this season, and Ritsu Doan, who has been consistent on the wings. Their backline, led by experienced defenders like Matthias Ginter and Philipp Lienhart, will be crucial in keeping Mainz’s offensive threats at bay.
Key battles to watch include Junior Adamu against Maxim Leitsch, and the midfield tussle between Eggestein and Kaishu Sano. These matchups could be pivotal in determining the outcome.
Freiburg Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel-Kofi Kyereh | Knee surgery | Late March 2025 |
| Bruno Ogbus | Achilles tendon injury | Out for season |
| Merlin Röhl | Heel injury | Mid April 2025 |
Freiburg is handling a few crucial absences that may impact their form. Daniel-Kofi Kyereh, a notable midfield presence, is out until late March. Bruno Ogbus, who has been key in defense, won’t be back this season. Merlin Röhl will be out until mid-April, adding another gap in midfield.
These injuries could force Freiburg to reshuffle their starting XI, relying more on squad depth, especially in defense and midfield.
Freiburg Tactics and Formation
Freiburg’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Key Forward: Junior Adamu
Freiburg has relied on a robust 4-2-3-1 formation, emphasizing a solid defensive setup and swift counter-attacks. Julian Schuster’s squad tends to build play from the back, utilizing the skillful distribution of their midfield duo, Maximilian Eggestein and Patrick Osterhage.
- Wing Play: Ritsu Doan and Eren Dinkci provide width and pace on the flanks, aiming to create chances for Adamu, their center-forward.
- Defensive Strength: With five clean sheets in their last five games, their defensive unit, led by Matthias Ginter and Philipp Lienhart, has been formidable.
- Notable Strategy: Freiburg is particularly vulnerable in the final quarter of the match, often conceding goals between the 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes.
Expect Freiburg to focus on maintaining their defensive solidity while exploiting Mainz 05 on the counter.
Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Head-to-Head Statistics
| Home | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | Mainz 05 | 0-0 |
| Freiburg | Mainz 05 | 1-1 |
| Mainz 05 | Freiburg | 0-1 |
| Mainz 05 | Freiburg | 1-1 |
| Freiburg | Mainz 05 | 2-1 |
Recent encounters between Mainz 05 and Freiburg have predominantly been low-scoring affairs, with tight matches and multiple draws. Mainz’s last home encounter with Freiburg ended in a narrow 1-0 defeat.
Given the defensive strengths both teams have demonstrated recently, expect another close contest. Less than 2.5 goals have been scored in 78% of their matches over the past five seasons, pointing towards another potential low-scoring outcome.
Odds accurate as of 13th March 2025 at 14:33, and are subject to change.
Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
