Lazio vs Monza Prediction: Betting Preview
This Lazio vs Monza prediction betting preview comes at a time where bottom side Monza looks cut adrift at the foot of the Serie A table, eight points from safety with only 15 games remaining. The odds certainly agree with 1.16 the price to be playing in Serie B next season. Despite only winning twice all season, they did beat Fiorentina only four games ago to suggest they haven’t given up the fight yet. Marco Baroni’s Lazio have blown hot and cold all season with only three draws, but they remain 4th in the final Champions League spot with a number of big clubs chasing them. They’ll fancy their chances to rack up a big win against the league’s worst side.
Lazio vs Monza Prediction 1: Back goals, goals, goals
Italy, Serie A, Sunday, February 9th, 14:00 (UK)
Lazio have entertained all season under Marco Baroni. 17 of their 23 games have gone over 2.5 goals (74%) and at the Stadio Olimpico it’s been even more prolific with nine of their 11 home games seeing three or more goals (82%). There’s been 71 goals in their matches at an average of 3.09 per-game. It’s fun at both ends of the pitch when Lazio are involved.
The Biancocelesti are the 3rd highest scorers in Serie A this season with 40 goals (1.74 per-game) thanks to their ability to create high quality chances. They’re attempting the 4th most shots per-game (13.9), whilst generating the 3rd most expected goals (40.86). They could have scored even more goals if main striker ValentÃn Castellanos had his shooting boots on. From 13.08 expected goals, he’s only scored eight, an underachievement of -5.08. He’s missed 12 big chances this season though to his credit he hasn’t stopped him shooting. He’s having the joint most shots per-game with 3.9 and given 74% are coming inside the penalty area (2.9), he’s at least still getting himself into good positions.
Defensively Lazio only rank 10th in-terms of goals conceded with 31 against at an average of 1.35 per-game. Unfortunately for them it should come as no surprise with goalkeeper Ivan Provedel rated the 2nd worst keeper in the league based on Post Shot xG – Goals Allowed – a metric where positive numbers suggest an above average ability to stop shots. He’s posting a figure of -5.8 and given his career total since 2018 is -19.6, it suggests he will always give you a chance of scoring against him.
Monza perhaps haven’t been as bad as the league table suggests. Of the 14 games they’ve lost, only four have been by more than a goal (29%) with expected points suggesting they should have at least eight more points than they have – the 2nd biggest underachievers in the league. And recently there’s been a bigger goal output in their games with eight of their last 10 matches across all competitions seeing over 2.5 goals.
Lazio are more than capable of clearing the line by themselves, but with their vulnerable goalkeeper, coupled with Monza only failing to score twice in their last 11 Serie A games, the away side can cause Lazio problems as well. Monza’s top scorer in Portuguese international Dany Mota has already scored against both Inter Milan and Roma this season.
- Lazio vs Monza Prediction 1: Over 2.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)
Lazio vs Monza Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, February 5th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Lazio vs Monza Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Moves made by Monza
Lazio brought in Verona midfielder Reda Belahyane for €9.5M and Danish defender Oliver Provstgaard from Vejle for €4M on deadline day. In a bid to increase their chances of staying up, Monza made a number of moves during the transfer window. Out went experienced striker Milan Djuric (Parma), centre-back Pablo Mari (Fiorentina), attacker Daniel Maldini for €10M (Atalanta) and midfielder Warren Bondo for €10M (Milan). In came, amongst others, Akpa Akpro from opponents Lazio, defender Stefan Lekovic (Red Star Belgrade), midfielder Kacper Urbanski (Bologna), defender Tiago Tomas (Inter) and striker Silvere Ganvoula (Young Boys).
Injury wise, Lazio remain without left-back Nuno Tavares due to a thigh injury and midfielder Manuel Lazzari (knee). Monza have issues surrounding Akpa Akpro (muscle), striker Gianluca Caprari (muscle) and midfielder Matteo Pessina (thigh).
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Gigot, Gila, Romagnoli, Marusic; Guendouzi, Rovella; Isaksen, Dia, Zaccagni; Castellanos
Monza possible starting lineup:
Turati; Lekovic, Izzo, Palacios; Pereira, Sensi, Urbanski, Kyriakopoulos; Ciurria, Mota, Vignato
Match Stats: A recipe for goals
- Monza have failed to win 30 of their last 32 matches in Serie A
- 17 of Lazio’s 23 games have gone over 2.5 goals (74%)
- 9 of Lazio’s 11 home games have seen three or more goals (82%)
- 8 of Monza’s last 10 matches across all competitions have gone over 2.5 goals
- Monza only failed to score twice in their last 11 Serie A games
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