Lazio vs Roma Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

As we approach the thrilling 201st edition of the Derby della Capitale, Lazio and Roma, separated by just two points in the standings, gear up for a crucial clash in the Eternal City. This fixture is part of the 32nd round of Serie A, and both teams are in good form, making it a must win game for the race for Champions League qualification. Here’s our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, preview and analysis for Lazio vs Roma. 

Lazio vs Roma Prediction: Champions League’s six pointer might be a cagey affair

Serie A, Italy, Matchday 32, Sunday April 13th, 19:45 (UK)

With just seven matches left in the season and six teams separated by just six points, both sides can’t afford a slip up in the derby. Despite Lazio’s slight advantage in the betting odds, they are underdogs in this fixture, given Ranieri’s flawless record (five wins in five games) in previous clashes. 

The Biancocelesti, sitting sixth in the table with 55 points, recently secured an important victory over Atalanta. However, they have drawn their last three home games and haven’t won a league derby since March 2023. The Giallorossi, meanwhile, are in the mix for Champions League positions after an unbeaten run of 15 league matches, including a 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture and a 1-1 draw, last Sunday, against Juventus. 

Defensively, Lazio have conceded 42 goals compared to Roma’s 31 and have only recorded 1.57 xG (expected goals) more. 

Lazio’s home form has seen them allow goals in their last ten matches, with their attack only exceeding one goal against Napoli and Monza.

Roma’s attack has been less potent away from home, scoring just 14 goals on the road this season, almost half of last campaign’s total tally (27).  However they’ve managed to find the net in nine of their last ten away games, despite averaging just five goals in the same span.

‘Sir’ Claudio Ranieri holds a great record

In 161 Serie A meetings, Roma lead with 58 victories compared to Lazio’s 42. In recent encounters, however, Lazio have fared better, with five wins to Roma’s four in the last ten derbies, and a lone draw in November 2023.

At home, Lazio have won six of their last ten games against Roma. Ranieri’s side on the other hand, has not claimed victory as a visitor since 2016, suffering four defeats and one draw. 

Recent matches have been low-scoring affairs, with the under 2.5 goals option prevailing in seven of the last ten derbies where Lazio were the home side. With substantial stakes on the line, a tactical and cautious encounter is likely. Our prediction points towards a draw or for both teams to find the back of the net. 

BETSiE Projections		HGF	AGF	GD	GT	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
Lazio vs Roma		1.22	1.23	-0.01	2.46	36.8%	25.9%	37.3%

• Lazio vs Roma Prediction: Both Teams To Score – Yes
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Lazio vs Roma Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:45, April 10th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Lazio vs Roma Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Two key returns in midfield

The return of Mattéo Guendouzi in midfield is a significant boost for Lazio. However, manager Baroni faces a potential setback with Tavares doubtful for the derby. The availability of Dia and Isaksen remains uncertain, with Pedro ready to make an impact from the bench, if needed.

Ranieri welcomes Saelemaekers back into the midfield after serving his suspension but may have to do without Celik. Up front, Pellegrini is likely to support Soulé and Dovbyk.

Lazio possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Provstgaard, Pellegrini; Guendouzi, Rovella; Dele – Bashiru, Tchaouna, Zaccagni; Castellanos.

Roma possible starting lineup:
Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Rensch; Angelino, Konè, Paredes, Saelemaekers; Soule, Pellegrini; Dovbyk.

Match Stats: Late goals’ kings might defy past records

• Roma have kept a clean sheet in their last three Serie A derbies against Lazio. The Giallorossi have only achieved four consecutive clean sheets against the Biancocelesti on two occasions in Serie A history: between 1943 and 1947 and from 1959 to 1960
• Following their 2-0 victory on 5 January, Roma could win both of this season’s Serie A derbies against Lazio for the first time since the 2015/16 season.
• In the last 10 derby encounters between Lazio and Roma across all competitions, both sides have scored in the same match only once. This occurred when Lazio secured a 3-2 league victory on 26 September 2021.
• Lazio (25) and Roma (21) are among the top four teams in this season’s league for goals scored in the last 30 minutes of play, alongside AC Milan and Bologna, who have 22 each.

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