St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction - Bundesliga Fixtures
Scott Thornton provides his St. Pauli vs Dortmund predictions preview as the visitors aim to salvage their season by climbing towards the European places in the Bundesliga.
This is St. Pauli’s first season in the German top flight since 2011 so remaining there is the priority. Alexander Blessin will be reasonably happy with the way the first half of the season has gone, but they still need to finish the season in a positive manner.
Dortmund face an uphill battle to make it back into the Champions League. They reached the final of the competition last season but are well off the pace in their domestic league. The fans will be hoping Niko Kovac can breathe life into their season.
Dortmund’s Underlying Data Points to Improvement
Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, March 1st, 14:30 (UK)
Borussia Dortmund have struggled in the Bundesliga this season. They are languishing in 10th place, six points behind the guaranteed European places. The poor first half of the season meant that Nuri Sahin was sacked as boss but there have been some encouraging signs in the early stages of Niko Kovac’s tenure, despite the team managing just two wins in their five competitive matches thus far.
Kovac likes his teams to remain compact and press, forcing the opposition into wide areas. Dortmund have energetic players who are capable of carrying out these instructions. Niko’s attacking approach is more varied but he should be able to make the most of the pace within the squad with quick transitions and vertical passing, traits that we have seen at previous clubs.
It’s been a mixed bag of results under the new manager but the underlying data shows far more promise. Dortmund have won the xG battle in four of their five matches. Over that period, they are averaging 2.48 expected goals per game while their opponents average 0.9. In fact, Bochum are the only team whose xG exceeded one against Kovac’s Dortmund to date. Last weekend’s 6-0 win over Union Berlin illustrated just how effective Die Borussen can be and they should carry that momentum into this weekend.
St. Pauli are four points clear of the relegation playoff place coming into matchday 24. They have lost their last three matches and failed to score in all of them, which doesn’t bode well ahead of the clash with Dortmund. Alexander Blessin’s side have won just two of their 11 home matches this season, scoring an average of 0.64 goals over that period. No other team in the Bundesliga has scored fewer in front of their own fans.
The head-to-head data also paints a grim picture for the home side. St. Pauli were beaten 2-1 in the reverse fixture. They also lost both games against Dortmund in their last season in the German top flight. All signs point to an away win on Saturday.
- St. Pauli vs Dortmund Prediction: Dortmund To Win (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.85
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)
St. Pauli vs Dortmund Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:32, February 28th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Kovac has Plenty of Options
St. Pauli have a lengthy injury list to contend with. Soren Ahlers, Sascha Burchert, Simon Zoller and Morgan Guilavogui will all miss Saturday’s games. James Sands injured his ankle and is now set to miss the remainder of the season. Manolis Saliakas is nearing a comeback but this game is thought to be too soon for Robert Wagner. Karol Mets is also unlikely to feature.
Niko Kovac can name an unchanged eleven if he so chooses, but with the Champions League coming up, he may choose to rest a couple of players. Felix Nmecha is their only player who is certain to be sidelined. Julian Brandt has been out injured but could recover shortly.
St. Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Treu, Wahl, Smith, Nemeth, Ritzka; Boukhalfa, Irvine; Saad, Eggestein, Afolayan
Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Ryerson, Schlotterbeck, Can, Bensebaini; Groß, Beier, Sabitzer; Adeyemi, Gittens, Guirassy
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