Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction - Serie A Fixtures

Following last weekend’s 1-1 draw against league leaders Inter Milan, Antonio Conte’s side are eager to break their five-game winless streak.

Napoli will face Fiorentina on Sunday afternoon, taking on a La Viola side that has managed just 13 points in 10 Serie A matches in 2025.

As with every major Serie A clash, our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, is on hand to provide a comprehensive preview of Napoli vs Fiorentina.

Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction: Conte to get back to winning ways

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, March 9th, 15:00 (UK)

Napoli’s clash with Inter was billed as a potential title-decider, but the draw left the Serie A table largely unchanged. 

Despite the tie, Napoli sent an encouraging signal of intent under Conte, showcasing a hunger and a physical condition that appeared to be lacking in the past couple of months. 

Last Saturday the Partenopei displayed relentless intensity preventing Inter from establishing their usual rhythm. 

Even when Federico Dimarco scored a sublime free-kick to put the Nerazzurri ahead, Conte’s men remained composed and dominated the second half, ending the match with 19 shots to the visitors’ six. 

Despite Inter remaining a point ahead in the standings the draw arguably favoured Conte’s side more than Inzaghi’s. 

Napoli still find themselves with a limited squad, compared to the other title contenders and, as was evident against Juventus, need to raise their tempo to compensate for a lack of quality in their attacking players. 

For Conte, who for the first time in his career has gone without a win in five consecutive matches, the real challenge will be maintaining this same physical and mental intensity in every match going forward.

Why Fiorentina seem to have lost their way

After a strong start, the visitors have struggled since December 2024, partially due to the absence of a key player like midfielder Edoardo Bove. 

La Viola’s once solid 4-4-1-1 formation, which allowed them to play effectively along the left flank, has been less stable without Bove, resulting in a shift to more direct, albeit less controlled, play. 

Statistics back this up: David De Gea ranks fifth in Serie A for long balls per 90 minutes (8.07) and seventh for average pass length (41.68 metres). Even at Manchester United, De Gea preferred not to play short, but the Fiorentina system doesn’t facilitate this style.

Fiorentina’s form fluctuated in February as they lost against Inter, Como, and Verona, fuelling speculation over Palladino’s future. 

Ultimately, Fiorentina appear more comfortable sitting deep in defence without possession. Their victories against Lazio, Genoa, and Inter were characterised by an early lead followed by relinquished possession, squeezing the midfield onto the defence.

With BETSiE assigning Napoli a 46.2% chance of victory but a projected goal total of only 1.86, backing the hosts with -0.75 Asian Handicap, which means if they win by just one goal margin you’ll win only half your stake, seems a good idea. 

• Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction: Napoli Asian Handicap -0.75 (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:10, March 6th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Napoli vs Fiorentina Team News: An important comeback on each side

Napoli’s back three will be led, once again, by Rrahmani. In midfield with Anguissa returning from suspension, Gilmour and Billing are in contention to start from the first minute. Oliveira might play on the left flank instead of Spinazzola. Up front, Raspadori will support Lukaku. 

Moise Kean is back from injury and will lead La Viola’s attack alongside Beltran. 

Due to the suspension of both Zaniolo and Mandragora, Adli might return in midfield alongside Cataldi and Ndour. Dodò and Gosens will play on the flanks. 

Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno; Politano, Anguissa, Lobotka, McTominay, Oliveira; Lukaku, Raspadori.

Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
De Gea; Pongracic, Marì, Ranieri; Dodò, Ndour, Cataldi, Adli Gosens; Beltran, Kean.

Match Stats: Fiorentina’s post Conference League matches tend to be a goalfest

• Napoli are unbeaten in the last three matches, in all competition, against Fiorentina (2W, 1D). 
• La Viola have won three of the last four games played at the ‘Stadio Diego Armando Maradona’ against Napoli. These games have produced 17 goals in total, for an average of 4.25 goals per match. 
• Following a Conference League game this season Fiorentina have won just three out of eight games. Six of those matches have ended with both teams on the scoresheet and at least three goals in total.
• Napoli have shared the points in their past two home games. The Partenopei could draw three consecutive home matches for the first time since January and February 2020 (four).

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