Genoa vs. Lecce Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 14 March 2025 - bettingexpert

As we gear up for the 29th round of Serie A, Genoa will host Lecce at Stadio Luigi Ferraris on Friday, 14 March 2025, with kickoff set for 19:45. The match is not just another fixture; it has significant implications for both teams. Genoa, sitting in 12th place with 32 points, will aim to secure a crucial win to climb higher in the standings, while Lecce, currently 16th with 25 points, desperately needs a victory to steer clear of the relegation zone.

Genoa, managed by Patrick Vieira, come into this match having shown resilience at home with three wins in their last four Serie A home games. However, they haven’t won their last two matches. Vieira also faces injury woes with up to eight players sidelined, including key figures like Junior Messias, Vitinha, and Mario Balotelli.

Lecce, under the guidance of Marco Giampaolo, are struggling with form, not having won in their last five matches and losing the last three, including a recent defeat to Milan. With Filip Marchwinski out for the season, the team will be looking to their top scorer Nikola Krstovic to make an impact.

Given Lecce’s inconsistent form, a bet on Genoa to win with a narrow margin holds promise. Expect Genoa to capitalize on their home advantage and Lecce’s defensive vulnerabilities.

This match is more than just a battle for points; it’s a fight for survival and a chance to steer the course of the season for both teams. Don’t miss it on ESPN 2 and Disney+.

Genoa vs Lecce Prediction & Betting Tip

Based on current form and match statistics, our betting tip for this game is a narrow win for Genoa.

Genoa vs Lecce Prediction
Betting tip	Odds
Genoa to win	2.04

• Genoa has shown resilience at home with three victories in their last four home matches, indicating solid home form.
• Lecce, on the other hand, has been struggling with form, failing to win any of their last five matches and losing the last three.
• Genoa also has a clear edge in head-to-head encounters at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, boasting three wins over Lecce.

Genoa vs Lecce Odds

Here’s how the odds stack up for this crucial Serie A encounter:

Genoa vs Lecce Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Genoa to win	2.04
Draw	3.00
Lecce to win	4.24

Genoa enters this match as the bookmaker’s favourite, carrying decent odds of 2.04. A draw is priced at 3.00, reflecting the competitive nature of Serie A fixtures.
If you fancy Lecce to pull off an upset, the odds are 4.24, showcasing the challenge they face in breaking their winless streak.

Genoa Team Analysis

Genoa Recent Performance

Genoa have had a mixed bag of results in their last five matches. Their recent form hints at a team that is resilient but struggling to turn draws into wins. Here’s a look at their last five games:

Home team	Away team	Result
Cagliari	Genoa	1-1 (Draw)
Genoa	Empoli	1-1 (Draw)
Inter	Genoa	1-0 (Loss)
Genoa	Venezia	2-0 (Win)
Torino	Genoa	1-1 (Draw)

Despite these ups and downs, Genoa have managed to keep one clean sheet in their last five games, and they have scored an average of 1.00 goals per match.
Their defensive capabilities, spearheaded by Morten Frendrup and Milan Badelj, have been a cornerstone for the team’s structure. However, they need to improve their offensive play to climb higher on the table.

Genoa Key Players

For Genoa, the key players include their top scorer, Andrea Pinamonti, who has netted 8 goals this season. His prowess in front of goal will be crucial, especially against a Lecce side that tends to concede between the 31st and 45th minutes. Midfielders Milan Badelj and Morten Frendrup are vital in maintaining the team’s defensive structure. Frendrup’s impressive ball recoveries and tackles have been a highlight this season.

Expected lineup for Genoa:

• Goalkeeper: Nicola Leali
• Defenders: Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Koni De Winter, Johan Vásquez, Aaron Martin
• Midfielders: Milan Badelj, Morten Frendrup, Alessandro Zanoli, Jeff Ekhator, Fabio Miretti
• Forward: Andrea Pinamonti

Key individual battles to watch include Pinamonti against Lecce’s Frederic Guilbert, and Frendrup in the midfield tussle with Lecce’s Lassana Coulibaly.

Genoa Suspensions & Injuries

Genoa are facing a significant injury crisis, with up to eight players unavailable for selection. Patrick Vieira will need to navigate these challenges, which may force him to rely on squad depth to secure vital points.

Player	Injury	Expected return
Honest Ahanor	Meniscus injury	Doubtful
Morten Thorsby	Calf injury	Late March 2025
Vitinha	Muscle injury	Doubtful
Mario Balotelli	Broken hand	Early April 2025
Mattia Bani	Muscle injury	Late March 2025
Junior Messias	Muscle injury	Late March 2025
Maxwel Cornet	Muscle injury	Late March 2025
Caleb Ekuban	Back injury	Late March 2025

These absences could disrupt Genoa’s tactical cohesion and place additional pressure on fringe players to step up. This array of injuries particularly affects their attacking options, potentially limiting their offensive output against Lecce.

Genoa Tactics and Formation

Genoa Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Andrea Pinamonti
• Midfield Trio: Alessandro Zanoli, Jeff Ekhator, Fabio Miretti
• Defensive Strength: One clean sheet in the last five games

Patrick Vieira’s Genoa will likely continue their disciplined 4-2-3-1 setup, aiming to maximize efficiency both in defense and attack. With Andrea Pinamonti leading the line, expect the midfield trio of Zanoli, Ekhator, and Miretti to play crucial roles in linking up play and supporting the attack. Defensively, the pair of Badelj and Frendrup in the midfield will offer protection, while the back line remains steady with Norton-Cuffy, De Winter, Vásquez, and Martin. Given their defensive proficiency and form at home, this setup aims to control possession and create scoring opportunities.

Lecce Team Analysis

Lecce Recent Performance

Lecce have hit a rough patch in their recent fixtures, unable to secure a win in their last five league matches. The team has managed to grab only two points out of a possible 15, highlighting their struggles.

Home team	Away team	Result
Lecce	AC Milan	2-3 (Loss)
Fiorentina	Lecce	1-0 (Loss)
Lecce	Udinese	0-1 (Loss)
Monza	Lecce	0-0 (Draw)
Lecce	Bologna	0-0 (Draw)

Lecce’s offensive output has been quite limited, with an average of just 0.40 goals scored per game in their last five fixtures. Defensively, they have managed to keep two clean sheets, showing some resilience at the back but consistently failing to finish opportunities up front. Their form needs to improve dramatically if they hope to get back to winning ways.

Lecce Key Players

Nikola Krstovic stands out as Lecce’s top scorer with nine goals this season. His ability to find the net has been crucial for the team, and he’ll look to exploit Genoa’s defense. He’ll likely face a tough battle against Johan Vásquez and Koni De Winter, Genoa’s center-back pairing.

Midfielder Lassana Coulibaly will also play a pivotal role in maintaining control in the midfield against the likes of Milan Badelj and Morten Frendrup.

Expected lineup for Lecce:

• Goalkeeper: Wladimiro Falcone
• Defenders: Frédéric Guilbert, Federico Baschirotto, Gaby Jean, Antonino Gallo
• Midfielders: Lassana Coulibaly, Thórir Jóhann Helgason, Santiago Pierotti, Medon Berisha, Tete Morente
• Forward: Nikola Krstovic

The defensive contributions of Federico Baschirotto and the creativity of Medon Berisha will also be crucial for Lecce’s performance.

Lecce Suspensions & Injuries

Player	Injury	Expected return
Filip Marchwinski	Cruciate ligament injury	Out for season

Lecce faces a significant challenge with Filip Marchwinski out for the rest of the season due to a cruciate ligament injury. His absence leaves a notable gap in their midfield, affecting both their defensive and offensive capabilities.

The team will have to rely on their remaining squad depth to fill this void. Maintaining their structure and finding a suitable replacement will be crucial as they aim to reverse their recent poor form.

In this pivotal match against Genoa, Lecce’s ability to adapt to these injuries could be the deciding factor in securing much-needed points.

Lecce Tactics and Formation

Lecce Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Nikola Krstovic
• Defensive Midfielders: Lassana Coulibaly, Thórir Jóhann Helgason
• Strength: Two clean sheets in their last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Focus on maintaining a compact defensive shape to counteract Genoa’s home advantage.

Lecce’s approach centers on a disciplined 4-2-3-1 formation aiming to absorb pressure and hit on the counter. With Krstovic leading the line, they rely on his clinical finishing to convert limited chances.
The double pivot of Coulibaly and Helgason offers protection for the back four, while the wide players, Santiago Pierotti and Tete Morente, look to exploit space on the wings. Given Genoa’s solid home form, Lecce may focus on transitioning quickly from defense to attack to capitalize on any openings they can create.

Genoa vs Lecce Head-to-Head Statistics

Home	Away	Result
Lecce	Genoa	0-0
Genoa	Lecce	2-1
Lecce	Genoa	1-0
Genoa	Lecce	2-1
Lecce	Genoa	2-2

Genoa and Lecce have faced off five times recently, with Genoa winning twice and Lecce once. Both teams have also shared the spoils with two draws.

Genoa’s home advantage is evident as they secured victories in their last two home meetings against Lecce. This historical edge provides Genoa with a psychological boost ahead of the upcoming clash.

Odds accurate as of {12.03.2025 19:46}, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.