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With two goals in the Champions League against Galatasaray backing up his back-to-back Bundesliga hattricks, the question must be asked: Will Harry Kane break the Bundesliga record set by Robert Lewandowski? The record-breaking gluttonous goals haul for a single German top flight season stands at 41 goals in 2020/21. Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, looks at the data and projects whether Harry Kane will break another Bundesliga record after his busy start.
In this article:
- BETSiE Predicts Harry Kane’s Bundesliga Season
- Will Harry Kane Break The Bundesliga Record set by Robert Lewandowski?
- Harry Kane: The Serial Overperformer
- Frequently Asked questions
- Safer Gambling
BETSiE Predicts Harry Kane’s Bundesliga Season
Harry Kane (10.6xG) has currently contributed 34.6% of Bayern Munich’s xG in the Bundesliga this season.
Using that as a guide, BETSIE has applied it to the remainder of Harry Kane’s season, predicting he is on course to edge into the thirties in terms of Bundesliga goals scored in a Bayern Munich shirt in 2023/24.
| GOALS | Probability |
|---|---|
| 41 or more | 2.0% |
| 40 or more | 6.9% |
| 39 or more | 14.7% |
| 38 or more | 22.6% |
| 37 or more | 36.0% |
| 36 or more | 50.3% |
| 35 or more | 64.3% |
| 34 or more | 75.9% |
| 33 or more | 84.1% |
Will Harry Kane Break The Bundesliga Record set by Robert Lewandowski? Well, that record needs to wait its turn
As you’ll see in the table above, BETSIE predicts that Harry Kane will fall short of the 41-goal total required to match Lewandowski’s record, with only a 2% probability attached to Kane mustering 41 goals or more. However, if Kane outperforms the underlying data to the same standard as he did in the Premier League, Robert Lewandowski will have a sweat on – check out the table below.
Harry Kane is undoubtedly well on the way. This is the England captain’s best-ever start to a campaign in terms of goals scored. Not only that, but Kane’s 20 Bundesliga goal involvements is also his highest-ever return after ten matches.
Bayern’s new sharpshooter is in good company – only Gerd Muller (365), who has scored the most goals in Bundesliga history, can match Kane’s 15 goals in the opening ten matches of a season – that’s another Bundesliga record.
Looking back through the history books, only seven players have scored 30+ goals in a Bundesliga season. And Harry Kane is now halfway there with 28 matches remaining. In a Spurs shirt, Kane’s best-ever Premier League goalscoring season was 30, which he amassed on two separate occasions.
Harry Kane is averaging 1.56 goals per90 in the league at present, with that total looking much healthier after his hattrick in his first Klassiker outing. No player had ever scored three goals in their first Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich meeting – enter Harry Kane.
In a world where there was no Harry Kane on German soil, both Niklas Fullkrug and Christopher Nkunku ended as the Bundesliga top scorers in 2022/23. They both finished with 16 goals. Harry Kane needs one more goal to equal last season’s leading Bundesliga haul.
Harry Kane: The Serial Overperformer
Harry Kane, over his career, has outperformed his xG by an average of 16.8%. Suppose we’re working on the assumption that this kind of overperformance is the England captain’s norm, thanks to his finishing capabilities.
In that case, BETSiE predicts that Harry Kane has a 64.3% of matching Robert Lewandowski’s Bundesliga goal record in a single season.
| GOALS | Probability |
|---|---|
| 48 or more | 3.4% |
| 47 or more | 6.9% |
| 46 or more | 14.7% |
| 45 or more | 20.7% |
| 44 or more | 26.7% |
| 43 or more | 40.8% |
| 42 or more | 55.2% |
| 41 or more | 64.3% |
| 40 or more | 75.9% |
| 39 or more | 81.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions
How many goals has Harry Kane scored for Bayern?
Harry Kane has scored 19 goals for Bayern Munich in 14 games. This return included four goals in four games in the Champions League, and 15 goals in ten Bundesliga matches.
Who has scored the most goals in Bundesliga history?
Gerd Muller, of Bayern Munich fame, leads the Bundesliga all-time goalscorer rankings with 365 goals. Not too far from him is Robert Lewandowski, the Polish marksman who recently vacated Bavaria for Barcelona.
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