The Expert’s Acca Tips and Predictions: Goals, Goals, Goals

Five members of the bettingexpert team put their heads together to provide five tips and predictions for this week’s instalment of the Expert’s Acca.

Goals are firmly on the agenda. Tom sides with the Green Army in Devon. It’s a trip up north for Jack Wright. As usual, Danielle settles on a pick in Serie A, whilst Steve and Matt like the look of goals and a lack of them in Ligue 1 and League One.

The Expert’s Acca Tips and Predictions

• Jack Wright’s Tip: Dunfermline – Over 2.5 Goals
• Tom Winch’s Tip: Plymouth and Over 1.5 Goals
• Daniele Fisichella’s Tip: Udinese – Over 1.5 SH Goals
• Steve Wyss’ Tip: Le Havre Under 2.0 Asian Goals
• Matt Kirby’s Tip: Cambridge – Over 2.5 Goals

Expert Tips Acca Odds: 26.84

Expert Tips and Predictions Acca Odds via bet365 as at Wednesday 13th December 12:00. Odds may now differ.

Dunfermline vs Partick Thistle: Goals backers look to be a thorn in the side of bookies at East End Park

Scotland, Championship, Saturday, December 16th, 15:00 (UK)

Goals have generally been rife throughout much of Europe this season. But as the bookies tighten the screw on the goal lines, we are having to dig a little deeper to find value in a game that looks goal-laden. However, I don’t need my passport for this week’s pick as it is right here in the UK.

The Scottish Championship is producing an average of 2.96 goals per match, with a hearty 63% of fixtures cashing for Over 2.5 goals backers. As a guide, that percentage matches identically with that of the English Premier League.

The chief contributor to both those stats is third-placed Partick Thistle, who are top scorers in the Scottish second tier, hitting the back of the net 31 times to date. Their opening 15 fixtures have seen a league-high 46 goals, with an incredible 14 (93%) seeing three or more strikes.

I believe we are getting a slightly inflated price here due to hosts Dunfermline only seeing over 2.5 goals land in half their Championship games so far. However, this bet would have landed in five of their last six fixtures across all competitions. Partick ran out 3-0 winners when the two sides met in the reverse fixture in September.

• Expert: Jack Wright
• Selection: Over 2.5 Goal Line
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Plymouth vs Rotherham: The Championship’s Worst Travellers

England, Championship, Saturday December 16th, 15:00 (UK)

I’m heading to the English Championship this weekend. Steven Schumacher’s Plymouth hosts a Rotherham side that doesn’t travel well in the slightest. The home team has fought well since gaining promotion from League 1 and has impressed in the majority of games at Home Park.

Rotherham have been atrocious on the road. They’ve earned just two points from a possible 30 this term. Only four goals have been scored by The Millers, whilst 25 have gone in at the other end. All eight of their losses away from home have seen them concede multiple times, and with Plymouth having the second-most goals at home in the division, I’d be shocked if they didn’t concede at least a couple on Saturday.

The Pilgrims have claimed maximum points in six home games from ten, scored 24 times and conceded ten. The proposed selection has cashed in every single win here, and with two sides with contrasting stats, I feel like this clash should end in only one outcome.

Plymouth occupy midtable when it comes to xG, and Rotherham, as you’d expect, are rock bottom. These sides sit first and second at the wrong end of the table for xGA, Rotherham being the worst once again.

With this bet landing in a combined 14 games from 20, the price appeals. I expect goals to be scored with the hosts coming out on top.

• Expert: Tom Winch
• Selection: Plymouth & Over 1.5 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

Udinese vs Sassuolo: an unlikely relegation six-pointer

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, December 17th, 14:00 (UK)

Since the end of September, both Udinese and Sassuolo have won just a game apiece and such poor form has dragged them into the relegation zone.

The visitors have got Serie A’s second-worst defence (28 conceded) and, alongside Salernitana, are the only side who haven’t kept a clean sheet.

Sassuolo have never been a defensively sound team. They conceded 61 last season and 66 the year before, but they’re currently struggling more than ever to keep it tight.
In fact they’re the team, alongside Empoli, who conceded the most second-half goals: 16, six of them in the last quarter of an hour.

The good news for Sassuolo is represented by the return of Domenico Berardi from suspension. His seven goals and three assists this season represent a guarantee for the Neroverdi.

In 2023, Udinese won only four Serie A games, twice against AC Milan and against Sampdoria and Cremonese, who were both relegated in May.

The departure of Beto and the long absence due to the injury of Deulofeu have deprived them of the main sources of goals; they’ve only scored 12 times (although their xG are +9.35) and failed to find the net in six games during this campaign.

Worryingly, they’ve got the worst home record in Series A, with no wins, five draws, and two defeats.

• Expert: Daniele Fisichella
• Selection: Over 1.5 Goals In The Second Half
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Le Havre vs Nice: Low scoring affair expected on the coast of Normandy

France, Ligue 1, Saturday December 16th, 16:00 (UK)

Le Havre welcomes Nice to Le Stade Oceane for this Saturday afternoon’s Ligue 1 showdown in Normandy. The home side have only won 1 of their last nine games and conceded a late goal last week away to Strasbourg (1-2). They are down to 11th position in the table, which is still a very acceptable spot for a newly promoted club. They face a formidable Nice side who have been extremely difficult to penetrate this season. The visitors have only conceded six goals in Ligue 1 and are the current closest challengers to PSG in the table.

This is one of the lowest goal lines to appear in Ligue 1 this season. Under 2.5 goals is as short as 1.53 with some bookies, and for good reason. Le Havre’s home games only average 1.90 goals per match, and Les Ciel et Marine have been involved in four 0-0 draws in their last seven Ligue 1 affairs. They are a team who regularly underachieve offensively but overachieve defensively. Goalkeeper Arthur Desmas has enjoyed a decent season. A massive 13 out of 15 Nice fixtures in Ligue 1 have ended with under 2.5 goals, and their defensive discipline is well-known under manager Francesco Farioli.

Both sides were unusually involved in respective 2-1 score lines last week. It was the first time in 10 fixtures that a Nice game went over 2.5 goals and just the second time in 13 matches that both teams scored. For Le Havre, it was just the second time in nine league games where BTTS – yes has landed, but I expect both sides to revert back to the norm this weekend. Under 2 Asian goals can be backed at 2.05, and there is every chance this ends in 0-0 or a 1-0 victory for either side. A push is not a terrible outcome for exactly two goals, and it’s difficult to see this match going over 2.5.

• Expert: Steve Wyss
• Selection: Under 2.00 Asian Goals
• Best Odds: 2.05
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 9/10 (TRACKED BET)

Cambridge vs Blackpool: Goals with Tangerines at a juicy price

England, League One, Saturday, December 16th, 15:00 (UK)

Neil Harris saw his Cambridge side battle from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 at Charlton last Saturday. Two late goals from Gassan Yahyai earned The U’s a vital point.

Despite the managerial change, that’s each of the last seven Cambridge games in all competitions that have seen at least three goals. And that trend can continue when free-scoring Blackpool visit Abbey Stadium.

Neil Critchley’s side have climbed to eighth in League One and have scored 12 goals in their last four league games. A pair of 4-0 wins over Shrewsbury and now table-toppers Portsmouth shows their ruthlessness in front of goal.

That’s been led by veteran forward Jordan Rhodes, who netted his 12th and 13th goals of the season in Saturday’s 3-0 home win over Carlisle. While others can pop up after four different scorers notched in that 4-0 win at Fratton Park. One of those was Jake Beesley, who has scored six in six in all comps, so he could be one for the home defence to watch.

Blackpool has seen 3+ goals in 13 of their last 16 games in all competitions, including in seven of their last eight in the league. Plus, the Tangerines have scored 36 goals – only Barnsley and Bolton (both 37) and Portsmouth (40) have scored more.

Cambridge have already lost 4-0 to seventh-place Barnsley and 3-0 to ninth-place Lincoln here at Abbey Stadium. That makes me wonder how they’ll cope with Blackpool, who are sandwiched between those two sides in the table.

Given those recent numbers for Blackpool, especially the number of times they’ve scored, and the fact they rank fifth for shots, follow that trend at Cambridge.

• Expert: Matt Kirby
• Selection: Over 2.5 Goal Line
• Best Odds: 2.05
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

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