The Expert’s Acca: Derbies, Goal-Crazed Duos, and Licking Lips

The Expert’s Acca: Expert Tips and Predictions From bettingexpert This Weekend

It’s that time again; The Expert’s Acca has rolled around for another Wednesday, meaning plenty of expert tips and predictions ahead of a bustling weekend docket of football.

Last week, we had three winners, a push and one loss. Matt Kirby’s Morecambe punt at 3.00 was the pick of the bunch, whilst Sam Ingram and Jack Wright, who both venture to the Bundesliga this week, also put up successful selections.

In what is a first for the Expert’s Acca, Tom Winch takes us to Switzerland’s Super League to graze upon unfamiliar, and hopefully goal-laden, luscious lands.

In this article:

• Sam’s Expert Tips: Darmstadt 2.75+ Goals
• Jack’s Expert Tips: Cologne: 2.75+ Goals
• Nathan’s Expert Tips: America MG: BTTS
• Scott’s Expert Tips: Everton 27.5+ Shots
• Tom’s Expert Tips: Lausanne: BTTS & 2.5+
• Daniele’s Expert Tips: Roma -0.75 AH
• Matt’s Expert Tips: Ipswich Win & U5 Goals

Expert Tips Acca Odds: 53.03

Expert Tips Acca Odds via bet365 as at Wednesday 1st November 10:00. Odds may now differ.

Darmstadt vs Bochum: Absentees, Licking Lips, and Goals at Both Ends

Germany, Bundesliga, Friday, November 3rd, 19:30 (UK)

Darmstadt lost 8-0 against Bayern on the weekend, with Harry Kane’s goal from inside his half the highlight. Beckham-esque.

Darmstadt also saw two starting CBs sent off, which will lead to suspension for both here – Maglica and Gjasula were sent for an early bath in the first half, and this was after Joshua Kimmich saw red four minutes into the game.

So, a peculiar game in Germany. But here, we’re looking at Bochum’s visit to Darmstadt next Friday under the lights. At home, scorelines of 1-3, 4-2, 3-3 & 1-4 have welcomed newly-promoted Darmstadt into the Bundesliga. Darmstadt have seen O2.5 Goals pay out in 8/9 matches this season.

With two key central defenders now absent for back-to-back home games against Bochum and Mainz, that leaky nature may be amplified. Bochum? They’ve seen O2.5 cash in 4/5 away fixtures (2-1, 0-0, 7-0, 2-2 & 5-0). This match-up will probably be a scrap for survival come next May. Bochum don’t necessarily score lots of goals – they’ve bagged just 8 in 9 – the second-fewest in the division. But that’s fine. That’s why you can get the goal line we’re looking at at a decent price.

I just really like the thought of two key defensive players being missing in that back five that Darmstadt set up with. Will they have to change to a back four or rely on players the manager would ideally rather not chuck into the deep end? We’ll see, but you can be sure that the Bochum management team will be licking their lips and thinking this is one away fixture where they may be able to capitalise – and they won’t be thinking that much this season, if at all, after Friday’s game.

The Bundesliga ranks second in the world in terms of leagues returning O2.5 goals. Only the Singaporean Premier League pips the German top flight in three or more goals landing in fixtures this campaign.

74.68% of matches have seen three or more goals in the Bundesliga this campaign – that’s 59/79 matches where our bet has paid out. So, to be getting quotes of O2.5 in this league at 1.72 when the market opened feels like value. I’m taking the O2.75 Asian line here, which means three goals scored returns half profits, and we’ll get full profits with four goals in the match.

The 19.00 on William Hill for both teams to score in each half may be something of interest to those who enjoy a bigger price.

• Expert: Sam Ingram
• Selection: Over 2.75 Asian Goal Line
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Cologne vs Augsburg: Continues to Augur well for goals in Fuggerstädter matches

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, November 4th, 14:30 (UK)

I’ve continued to tread a familiar path to the Bundesliga in recent weeks, and for good reason. The German top flight remains the place to go for goals, with the average per game continuing to climb, now up to a whopping 3.67.

Darmstadt, mainly for their concession rate and Bayern Munich, mainly for their scoring rate, lead the way with averages of 4.78 and 4.56 respectively. Helped by their head-to-head last weekend which yielded eight goals, all of which coming in the second half.

Augsburg are next in the list, with each of their games seeing the ball hit the back of the net on average 4.33 times. However, they are the only side in the league to have an average of at least two goals per game for goals scored AND conceded.

Eight (89%) of Fuggerstädter’s nine league games have seen over 2.5 goals cash, with five (56%) going on to see over 3.5 click. For Cologne, it is not quite such a high percentage, but it is still more than respectable.

It is six (67%) of their nine Bundesliga games seeing over 2.5 goals, although that includes three of their four outings at their RheinEnergieStadion. Two of which went on to see four goals scored.

The odds are a fraction short to put over 2.5 goals forward in this feature, but I am happy to play the next lineup on the Goal Line. Playing Over 2.75 means half our stake is on over 2.5 goals, with half on over 3. This guarantees us half a win if there are exactly three goals but a full win should the goals continue to pour in, and we see four or more.

• Expert: Jack Wright
• Selection: Over 2.75 Goal Line
• Best Odds: 1.98
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

America MG vs Atletico MG: Value in derby day goals

Brazil, Serie A, Saturday November 4th, 22:30 (UK)

America MG are all but relegated to Serie B, but they’ll do anything but simply roll over against their fierce rivals. Despite collecting just one point from their last five matches, they’ve finally shown some attacking intent by scoring nine goals.

In fact, they’ve found the back of the net in their last six matches, which includes Botafogo, Fortaleza and Athletico PR. They also managed to put three past Gremio at home last weekend.

Scoring isn’t an issue. It’s at the other end of the pitch where they continue to ship goals at an alarming rate. Conceding 13 in their last five is why they are bottom, and 64 in 30 matches only emphasises that point.

Atletico MG, on the other hand, are chasing a Libertadores spot. With key victories over Fluminense, Bragantino and Palmeiras, they’ll be confident of not getting caught up in the derby day atmosphere.

However, Atletico MG are unsurprisingly odds-on, and there’s far more juice than there should be with both teams to score. This has landed in seven of their last eight head-to-heads since 2022.

• Expert: Nathan Joyes
• Selection: BTTS – Yes
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Everton vs Brighton: Head-to-head data not to be ignored

England, Premier League, Saturday, November 4th, 15:00

Everton had been performing well in terms of xG since the start of the season, but results have picked up in recent weeks, and they’ve put some daylight between themselves and the Premier League’s bottom three.

In contrast, Brighton made a flying start to the season but have come unstuck in recent weeks. Four league matches without securing a win has left them 7th, but they are still within striking distance of the European places.

Recent matches between these sides have seen plenty of shots. There were 29 shots in this fixture last season, and our bet has landed in the last five head-to-heads. Over that period, the matches are averaging 30 shots per game. Everton’s watches at Goodison Park this season have seen 28.6 shots per game on average. Sean Dyche’s side’s last home match saw 36 shots.

Brighton matches have averaged 27.9 shots per game this season, just above the over 27.5 mark required to win here, but the head-to-head data with Everton cannot be ignored.

• Expert: Scott Thornton
• Selection: Over 27.5 Shots In The Match
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

Lausanne vs Lugano: Switzerland’s Goal-Crazy duo to produce entertaining affair

Switzerland, Super League, Saturday, November 4th, 15:00 (UK)

Lausanne and Lugano have been standouts in Switzerland this campaign. The pair sit 9th and 6th in the table, respectively, so far. The hosts have seen 19 goals in their six home matches, whilst the visitors have seen a whopping 24 in six away days.

Ludovic Magnin’s side have scored in five separate home matches, with ten arriving in total. They’ve shipped nine at the other end with just two clean sheets. The proposed selection has banked in half of their six matches.

Lugano have scored ten and conceded 14 on their travels. The proposed selection has cashed in all four of their previous away days.

Shkelqim (3), Cimignani (3), Celar (3), Dussenne (3), Sanches (4), and Mamadou Kaly Sene (5) have all started the season in strong scoring fashion.

The pair have kept just four clean sheets combined this campaign across 23 matches. Attack is certainly the best form of defence for these sides. They’ve scored in a combined 20 matches from 23, and I’m expecting an open end-to-end clash on Saturday evening.

• Expert: Tom Winch
• Selection: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

Roma vs Lecce: Paulo is back, Mou can re-Joy (a)

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, November 5th, 17:00 (UK)

Roma’s best player and talisman, Paulo Dybala, La Joya, is expected to be back from his muscular injury.

Without the Argentine, the Giallorossi lack spark and struggle to create chances, but Roma’s recent lacklustre performances in Serie A are probably not all Josè Mourinho’s fault. There’s no natural replacement for Dybala in the squad, and the Giallorossi travelled to San Siro missing other key players such as Smalling, Pellegrini and Spinazzola.

Yet they barely laid a glove on Inter Milan (xG 0.50 with the first shot on target after 65 minutes) and lost another match against a top side, as it has happened far too many times (18) in the last two years.

But, apart from last Sunday, Roma have always scored this season and have won their last five games at the Olimpico in all competitions without conceding.

Lecce are just a point behind Roma in the table, and after a strong start they’re slowly regressing to the mean: they’re winless in five, having scored only two goals during this period.

They’re not a pushover (Fiorentina and Juventus struggled to break them down), but looking at their expected points (-5.83) suggests they might have overachieved.

The visitors will host Parma on Wednesday in the second round of the Coppa Italia, so for once, Mourinho’s side will be more rested than the opposition at the weekend (no excuses this time, Josè…).

• Expert: Daniele Fisichella
• Selection: Roma -0.75 Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 1.75
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 15/10 – [1.5u] (TRACKED BET)

Birmingham vs Ipswich: Tractor Boys to plough on

England, Championship, Saturday, November 4th, 15:00 (UK)

Wayne Rooney has had a torrid start to life as Birmingham boss, losing all three of his games. Now, one of the last sides you want to see rocking up at St Andrew’s is high-flying Ipswich.

The Tractor Boys have won 11 of their 13 games back in the second tier, with their sole defeat coming in a 4-3 thriller against Leeds in August. Meanwhile, on their travels, Kieran McKenna’s side has been virtually unstoppable (W5 D1), only shipping two goals.

With four clean sheets in six on the road, those solid foundations give me confidence they can shut out a Birmingham side that has had its struggles in front of goal.

Ipswich have recorded four 1-0 away wins, as well as a 2-1 success at Sunderland on the opening weekend, so take the visitors to pile more misery on Rooney’s side in a low-scoring contest.

• Expert: Matt Kirby
• Selection: Ipswich to Win & Under 5 Goals
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)

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