The Expert’s Acca: Doubters, Believers, and a Leading Marksman

he Expert’s Acca: Expert Tips and Predictions From bettingexpert This Weekend

Five selections make up the Expert’s Acca this week. What is the aim of this piece of content? Well, it’s simply to hand our writers the platform to put up their very best selection from anywhere in the world for the upcoming weekend.

Each selection will be tracked and included in the Expert’s Acca P&L records, which will rear its head on social media throughout the season. Without further ado, let’s get to it. The Bundesliga, League Two, the Serie A in Brazil, and the other Serie A in Italy all feature this week.

In this article:

• Sam Ingram’s Best Expert Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
• Jack Wright’s Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
• Nathan Joyes’ Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
• Scott Thornton’s Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
• Daniele Fisichella’s Best Free Tip and Prediction For This Weekend
• Responsible Gambling

Crawley vs Sutton: From Doubters to Believers

England, League Two, Saturday, September 30th, 15:00 (UK)

Like many, Crawley Town were my pick to slump towards National League football come the end of 2023/24. A mixture of bad feelings around the club surrounding ownership concerns, outgoing players they should’ve been aiming to build a team around, and an influx of non-league replacements made the summer a questionable one in Crawley. But what do I know?

Here they are, 4th in the league after nine matches and about to play a side who may have taken the mantle as one of the likeliest sides for the drop. Sutton United have conceded 14 strikes in their four away trips in League Two, losing all four matches. Zooming out, United have only mustered one point from their previous eight games, with the 5-1 opening day (Notts County Red Card: 15th minute) victory over Notts County feeling more and more like a hefty outlier as the weeks progress.

So, to get Crawley on our side with a handicap that offers security in case of a draw for a team that has scored 17 in nine matches, including two last-ditch winners in recent weeks, presents an interesting option in England’s fourth tier. Crawley’s defensive frailties are there for all to see. At times, they look as susceptible at the back as they are clinical in front of goal. With that in mind, the handicap offers a level of reassurance. But, equally, it’s difficult to see Sutton outmuscling the hosts if Crawley were to notch multiple goals, something that has occurred in each of Crawley’s last five matches (3+ strikes in 5/5, including vs Charlton in the cup).

The price for Crawley on the nose can be taken at odds-against with most bookmakers at present. That may change as kick-off approaches.

• Expert: Sam Ingram
• Selection: Crawley -0.25 Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 12.5/10 (1.25u) (TRACKED BET)

Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen: Bayer to spoil the party at the Karnevalsverein

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, September 30th, 14:30 (UK)

The report in Radio Marca outlining how Real Madrid have chosen Xabi Alonso to be their manager from next season simply shows what a fantastic job the 41-year-old is doing in Germany. Quickly gaining a reputation as one of the most exciting young managers, having taken over at Leverkusen last October with the club second from bottom of the Bundesliga.

A 6th placed finish in the German top flight and elimination at the semi-final stage of the Europa League was an impressive debut campaign in his first senior coaching job. Alonso has masterminded a flying start to this season. Seeing his side win six of their seven matches across all competitions, with only the draw away at Bayern Munich spoiling the 100% record.

Die Werkself have plundered 29 goals across those seven fixtures, scoring at least twice in all of them whilst only conceding six times. Despite a 4-1 win at the weekend, they have dropped to 2nd place in the league on goal difference as a result of Munich’s 7-0 win.

However, they take on a Mainz side here who are rock bottom with just a solitary point to show from their opening five fixtures. The 2-1 loss at Augsburg on Saturday made it three consecutive defeats.

A span of games in which they have shipped nine times. At the same time, no side has scored fewer Bundesliga goals than the four Bo Svensson’s men have to their name.

Leverkusen have won eight of the last 11 meetings between the two sides, including a 3-0 win in this fixture last term, and I expect a very similar outcome here. The outright price reflects that. However, we can get the visitors on board on the -1.00 Asian Handicap. Meaning we need a win by two or more goals, but if they only manage a one-goal victory, we get a refund on our stake.

• Expert: Jack Wright
• Selection: Bayer Leverkusen -1.00 Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 2.02
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Santos vs Vasco: Goals at both ends as stadium ban postponed

Brazil, Serie A, Sunday October 1st, 20:00 (UK)

Vasco climbed out of the relegation place for the first time since round seven after a 1-0 win over America MG. Having now collected 17 points from 24 matches, they are showing they can perform on the road as well as at home.

Speaking of home matches, Santos are fortunate to have their stadium ban postponed, as they were expected to play behind closed doors for the next two matches after inappropriate fan behaviour vs Gremio.

Last time out, a surprise 2-1 win away against relegation candidates Bahia gave Santos a valuable lifeline as they fight to keep their Serie A status – and once again, it was Marcos Leonardo who bailed them out.

The 20-year-old striker has nine league goals to his name and has often found the back of the net in front of his own supporters more often than not.

Santos are stronger at home. They’ve scored 18 of their 23 goals in front of their own supporters. However, they’ve also conceded 18, and it’s worth pointing out that both teams to score have landed comfortably in four of their last five home matches.

Vasco are the second most in-form team in the league at present, and with so much on the line, expect drama, big moments, but above all, goals.

• Expert: Nathan Joyes
• Selection: BTTS – Yes
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

Koln vs Stuttgart: Europe’s Leading Marksman on Target

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, September 30th, 14:30 (UK)

It’s been a concerning start for Koln. They are still awaiting their first win and have a goal difference of -5 after five matches. They are currently in 16th and will be fearing the worst as they gear up to take on a side that is full of confidence.

Stuttgart’s fairytale start to the season continued last weekend by coasting past Darmstadt 3-1. The side that battled against relegation are a point off the top of the Bundesliga, having scored a whopping 17 goal in their opening five league matches.

Serhou Guirassy has spearheaded the Stuttgart attack that has an xG of 12.38; only table toppers Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen have a better xG. Guirassy became the first player in Europe’s top five leagues to reach the 10-goal mark last weekend.

The Guinea international has outperformed his xG by 5.7, highlighting his proficiency at hitting the target. He is averaging 4.4 shots per Bundesliga match, and 2.4 of those have found the target. This price looks a little long, considering how Koln have struggled so far.

• Expert: Scott Thornton
• Selection: Over 1.5 Shots On Target For Guirassy
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

Atalanta vs Juventus: is Gewiss Stadium a fortress?

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, October 1st, 17:00 (UK)

Three home games, no goals conceded. Have Atalanta (last season’s fifth worst domestic defence) become, surprisingly, solid at home?

Will find out this Sunday when they host Juventus, a match that represents the first, real, top-of-the-table clash for both sides.

The Orobici have had to deal with some serious injuries that deprived them of two of their strikers (Gianluca Scamacca and record signing El Bilál Toure), but have shown good flexibility in their style of play. The partnership between Ademola Lookman and Charles De Ketelaere is improving game by game, and Atalanta has scored with eight different players so far.

Juventus seem to take one step forward and two backwards, so after the horror show in Sassuolo (4-2 defeat) on Tuesday against Lecce, we saw glimpses of the ‘old’ Juve: focused, largely un-spectacular, yet capable of getting the job done without conceding the visitors a single shot on target.

Despite the poor performances against Bologna and Sassuolo, Juventus have achieved their best start to a Serie A campaign since 2019/2020, when they eventually won the Scudetto under Maurizio Sarri.

The visitors are unbeaten in the last three games at the Gewiss Stadium, with the previous two matches producing only four goals (2-0 win for Juve last year and 1-1 the season before).

Juventus have had an extra day to rest as Atalanta travelled to Verona on Wednesday. This will be the fifth game in 14 days for the Bergamaschi, whereas the Bianconeri, who are not featuring in Europe, will be less tired.

• Expert: Daniele Fisichella
• Selection: Juventus Asian Handicap +0.25
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.