The Expert Acca: Tips and Predictions for This Weekend

The Expert Acca tips and predictions best bets preview returns after a winning outing last week to the tune of 14.57 from four selections.

Both Steve Wyss and Sam Ingram join the line-up this week as we look to make it two consecutive winners on the bounce with picks from Serie A, Bundesliga, League One, and the National League North.

The Expert Acca Tips and Predictions

• Sam Ingram’s Tip: Cheltenham 0.0 Asian Handicap
• Nathan Joyes’ Tip: Peterborough Sports Double Chance
• Scott Thornton’s Tip: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals
• Tom Winch’s Tip: Frosinone – Over 2.75 Goals
• Daniele Fisichella’s Tip: Napoli Bet Builder
• Steve Wyss’ Tip: Leverkusen BTTS-No

Expert Tips Acca Odds: 37.26

Expert Tips and Predictions Acca Odds via bet365 as at Wednesday 1st February 09:00. Odds may now differ.

Cheltenham vs Wycombe: Home Underdogs? Not Convinced

England, League One, February 3rd,, 15:00 (UK)

If you told me I’d be backing Cheltenham in February with so much expectancy after they broke records and went ten games without scoring a goal in the early stages of the season, I’d have thought you were crazy.

But, this is a standout fixture for me. The bookmakers have priced Wycombe as favourites for the League One clash, which I’m not sure about. In fact, by the time kick-off comes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cheltenham as favourites with the smart money coming in for them near Saturday afternoon and altering the bookmaker’s lines.

Wycombe are in trouble. Matt Bloomfield has won one game in his last 17. He’s the most under-fire manager in the division right now – he probably had some competition from Exeter’s Gary Caldwell, but the Grecians have been picking up some results recently.

There’s a toxic atmosphere at the club. The fans want Bloomfield out, the owners are reluctant to begin a managerial search, likely due to finances involved, and the performances are matching the drab results – supporters are rightly concerned. Their club are four points off the relegation spots going into this weekend.

Last Saturday, Wycombe trailed a very poor Fleetwood side at home. Charlie Adam, Fleetwood manager, had lost all four games before heading to Wycombe at the weekend. They’re one of our relegation favourites to drop down a division come the end of the season. So, to see them come to Wycombe and look like prime 80s Brazil paints a thousand words – it shows the level Wycombe are operating at right now.

Luckily for Wycombe, Fleetwood received a red card and it was downhill for them ever since.
The game ended 2-2, but acts as a glowing indictment at just how bad Wycombe are performing. I struggle seeing them take anything off Cheltenham with the way they’re playing.

Cheltenham

This bet, though, despite Wycombe’s woes, is more focused on the home side, Cheltenham. They’re experiencing a different trajectory right now despite being three places below their Saturday opponents.

From being easily one of the worst teams in the EFL – Darrell Clarke has come in as manager and really turned a corner with this side. They might have lost two games on the bounce coming into this, but the Robins went to Bolton and Derby and caused them headaches.

Cheltenham have lost 2/9 home matches under Darrell Clarke, one of them being against Fleetwood, which was the fixture only a few days after Clarke’s appointment. They’ve beaten Pompey, Oxford, Cambridge and Shrewsbury on home soil and held Derby, Reading and Wigan to draws.

This is a plucky side playing like they’re targeting the playoffs now under new management, not one in the doldrums alongside the likes of Wycombe and Fleetwood. I’m shocked that they’re the supposed 2.87 underdogs in the 1X2 at bet365.

Win against Wycombe, and you catch right up to one of your relegation rivals – a team that has a genuine shot at going down this season.

Against Derby on the weekend, Cheltenham went 1-0 up away from home and were denied a blatant penalty to make it two before the home side flexed their promotion credentials and found a way to win the game – no disgrace. If anything, it made me want to back them even more this weekend.

They performed really well against Bolton but weren’t as clinical as they could have been. The Robins beat Portsmouth in the game before the Bolton and Derby fixtures. They’ve had a really testing few weeks, but they’ve come out of it with their stock now way above a side competing for survival. They should be fine in terms of survival if this level of performance continues.

If you’re a more conservative bettor, the Cheltenham 0.0 Asian Handicap, which returns full stakes in the event of a draw at 2.02, but I wouldn’t put anyone off the 2.87 for the straight win.

Interestingly, just looking at our BETSiE projections for this game, she has Wycombe only just edging it on the 0.0 Asian Handicap with a 51.55% likelihood they’ll get the job done. Man vs Machine it is.

• Expert: Sam Ingram
• Selection: Cheltenham 0.0 Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 1.92
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/15 (TRACKED BET)

Spennymoor vs Peterborough Sports: Visitors missed in the market

England, National League North, February 3rd, 15:00 (UK)

Tamworth swept Spennymoor to one side last weekend to land my selection, and I’m going against the out-of-form team once again.

Their 2-0 defeat was their 11th match without a win, having last secured all three points away to relegation-threatened Kings Lynn.

Peterborough Sports are looking to skip away from the relegation zone, and if they win their couple of games in hand over other sides, they’ll be looking for an ambitious play-off charge.

With just three defeats in their last ten, two of which came against Tamworth and Scunthorpe, they’ve appeared to have turned a corner – and are heading in the opposite direction to Spennymoor.

On the road, it’s just one defeat in five for the visitors, who win at South Shields and point away to Scarborough. Both catch the eye.

The hosts have recently lost their Head of Recruitment, and with a few jumping ship, it’s worrying times for the club. If they concede first, it could be another rough afternoon for them.

• Expert: Nathan Joyes
• Selection: Peterborough Sports Double Chance
• Best Odds: 1.60
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

Wolfsburg vs Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim’s Defence Continue to Struggle

Germany, Bundesliga, February 4th, 14:30 (UK)

Wolfsburg have the chance to draw level with Hoffenheim on Sunday. Niko Kovac’s side have drawn all three of their matches since the winter break, but there is still a 10-point gap between themselves and the relegation playoff spot.

Hoffenheim made a fine start to the season and looked to be competing for a European place. Things have soured in recent months. A poor run of results since the start of November has sent them hurtling down the table. They have won just once in their last 11 visits to Wolfsburg and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those clashes.

Kovac’s men have scored in eight of their nine home matches in the Bundesliga this season. They recorded a 2-1 victory in this fixture last season. In fact, both teams have scored in four of the last five head-to-heads, and there were at least three goals in four of those.

Hoffenheim’s matches have seen the 3rd most goals in the Bundesliga this season, with an average of 3.79 per game. Both teams have scored in nine of their ten away matches. The exception was their 3-0 defeat to Bayern Munich.

• Expert: Scott Thornton
• Selection: Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals In The Match
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

Frosinone vs Milan: Saturday Evening Entertainment

Italy, Serie A, February 3rd, 17:00 (UK)

These two sides have provided plenty of entertainment this campaign, goals have been scored at a frequent rate, and I’m expecting another thrilling affair at Stadio Benito Stirpe on Saturday evening.

Frosinone have scored 20 times in their 11 home matches here. Only Torino have prevented Eusebio Di Francesco’s men from finding the back of the net. The 0-0 draw with Torino was the only time the hosts have kept a clean sheet. An impressive 3.27 goals are scored at this venue on average this season.

A whopping 41 goals have arrived in Milan’s away days, that’s 3.73 on average. Stefano Piolo’s side has bagged on 23 occasions whilst shipping 18 at the other end. Milan have scored in each of their 11 away days, scoring multiple times on nine occasions. Only five sides have conceded more times away from home, and Milan have kept just three shutouts away from the San Siro.

I expect both sides to have plenty of joy here in what should be one of the more entertaining matches of the weekend in Serie A. Milan won the reverse fixture 3-1 in December, a similar scoreline is well on the cards.

All of Milan’s previous six away days have seen three or more goals scored. (4, 4, 5, 4, 3, 5)

Six of Frosinone’s recent seven have seen at least three strikes. The two games in 2024 have ended 2-3 and 3-1.

There should be plenty of attacking action between these fun sides; therefore, backing goals is certainly the way to attack this encounter.

• Expert: Tom Winch
• Selection: Over 2.75 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Napoli vs Verona: goals-shy champions could profit from Verona’s mini revolution

Italy, Serie A, February 4th, 14:00 (UK)

Napoli are going through an extraordinarily painful goal drought having failed to score in seven of their last 10 games. It’s less than six months since they were crowned champions but it looks like an eternity.

Last Sunday they did not register a single shot on target against Lazio but equally they haven’t conceded many opportunities to Maurizio Sarri’s team.

Two months after the change on the bench Napoli’s metamorphosis into a typical Walter Mazzarri’s team is almost complete. By switching to a back three, which has helped them to keep two clean sheets in the last three games, they have become more defensively minded and rediscovered their fighting spirit.

However, based just on their home form last year’s champions would almost be relegation material (four defeats and a goal difference of 0 at the Maradona).

But on Sunday they’re welcoming back Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Giovanni Simeone (they were both suspended last weekend), plus January signings Cyril Ngonge (weirdly the former Verona man who, to this day, is still the season’s top scorer for the visitors) and Leander Dendonker would have had a full week to train with their new teammates.

Verona are almost heroic: they’ve sold pretty much all their best players this month but keep fighting. They’ve only lost four of their last 10 matches but avoiding relegation, after such drastic changes mid-season, would be a real miracle.

Marco Baroni’s team have been very competitive in their recent away defeats against top teams, in fact they’ve always lost by one goal against Roma, Inter, Fiorentina, Juve and Milan.

On the other hand Napoli have got the biggest negative xG difference (+8.02): they’ve missed 29 big chances, 10 of which with their Georgian winger, who’s also seventh in Serie A for shots on target (20 in total in 19 games).

• Expert: Daniele Fisichella
• Selection: Napoli Win, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia over 0.5 Shots on Target and Over 1 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 20/10 (TRACKED BET)

Darmstadt vs Leverkusen: Leverkusen to beat toothless Darmstadt to nil

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday 4th February, 14:30 (UK)

All eyes have been on a resurgent Leverkusen this season. They remain the only unbeaten side in all of the main top-flight European leagues. There has been even more attention on them this week thanks to the Xavi Alonso Liverpool links. He is the bookmaker’s favourite to replace Jurgen Klopp at the end of the season, and speculation is rife.

The words’ unsettling’ and ‘distraction’ have been floated about this week as a reason for Leverkusen drawing 0-0 vs Gladbach last Saturday. The simple fact is that they just struggled to break down a team that sat with a low block and was extremely difficult to penetrate. Leverkusen still racked up a high xG, well over 2.0 and on another day probably would have found a way to win 1-0 or 2-0.

In many ways, that was the perfect dress rehearsal for this clash away to Darmstadt. They might be the worst team in the Bundesliga, and their underlying metrics are awful. Darmstadt have the worst overall xG of any team (21.00) and have failed to score in five of their last nine league games. If we ignore their surprising comeback vs Frankfurt recently (2-2), which at the time showed no signs of occurring, they have previously failed to net in four straight home games. Leverkusen have the best defensive record in the Bundesliga and will welcome back Jonathan Tah from suspension here, in addition to possibly Edmond Tapsoba.

The obvious pick is to take Leverkusen on a handicap, but they only beat Augsburg 1-0 away with the last kick and have only covered a -1.5 Asian line in three away games this season. Darmstadt will be feeding off scraps here and parking as many buses as they can.

Whilst something like 0-2 or 0-3 is the most likely outcome, I think it makes sense to cover the 0-1 scoreline or even the 0-0 again. Taking BTTS no at 1.95 looks like a decent option and is effectively the same as backing Leverkusen to win to nil.

• Expert: Steve Wyss
• Selection: BTTS – No
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)

SAFER GAMBLING

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