The Editor’s Early Bird: Agility, A Half Century, and European Know-How

We’re over the hill of the international break here at bettingexpert, looking ahead to the weekend’s football schedule with a number of Early Bird articles for you to peruse. If you’re looking for more content like what you’ll read below, I’d recommend a personal favourite: a weekly piece of content in the EFL by Jack Wright – something which you can find every Tuesday on bettingexpert.

But here, this is the Editor’s Early Bird, covered by our expert and football editor, Sam Ingram. It sounds fancy, but it’s far from it. Just look at those destinations this week: Stoke in the Championship, League Two’s Crawley Town and Royal Antwerp in the Champions League – three sides that may never crop in the same sentence ever again.

• Stoke vs Sunderland: Sunderland +0.25 Asian Handicap
• Crawley vs Crewe: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals
• Royal Antwerp vs Porto: Porto -0.25 Asian Handicap

Acca odds: 6.10

Odds via bet365 as at 10:53, October 17th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Stoke vs Sunderland: Black Cats agile enough to avoid a misstep

England, Championship, Saturday, October 21st, 15:00 (UK)

Sunderland were just taught a lesson (0-4) at home to Middlesbrough.

It’s the type of scoreline I look for from a weekend or midweek schedule in an attempt to get the losers onside somehow in a pro-Sunderland selection. This is not something that will work all the time for obvious reasons, so you need to be careful who you pick and choose in this approach to locating value prices.

Now, a convincing home defeat is not ideal. However, the red card at 0-0 for Dan Neil just before half-time was enough to open the floodgates in what was a tight fixture where Sunderland could’ve taken the lead through Patrick Roberts not long before the sending-off. If that red card doesn’t come after some questionable officiating from Jared Gillette, then there’s no way Boro run out such big victors.

I’m not overly surprised they’re down as underdogs after last weekend, but the prices of 2.30 vs 3.10 in Stoke’s favour in the 1X2 market are questionable for me.

Overlooking their opening two losses to the campaign, Sunderland have recorded (W6/D1/L2), and that includes the ten-man loss vs Boro. Stoke? They’re struggling. Alex Neil’s job is in question, losing 6/8 of their recent 90s.

Regardless, you’d have to say that a draw would be a decent result for Alex Neil here, considering the lay of the land + injury issues. Stoke have many first-team players out, around double digits, and played with a back four consisting of a RB – CM – CB – CM before the international break.

Couple the severity of their injury issues in the squad with Stoke’s form, and they could be in trouble here. Since September, Stoke have lost six games, drawn 2-2 away in Huddersfield, who aren’t pulling up trees themselves, and picked up one away win in Bristol (2-3).

I spoke to Matt Kirby about a week ago for his opinion on the prices here – he’s a writer of the Cards Column on bettingexpert, which is published every Friday if you’ve not come across it yet – he’s also a season ticket holder at Stoke City, the poor soul – and his exact words were: “I would take the Stoke line. They won’t lose. We’re shocking at home.” – No pressure, Matt.

The line feels a bit off here for me. In simple terms, we have one team in crap form and one team playing well, and the bookies are handing us a quarter of a goal headstart on the latter. So I don’t mind if I do. Sunderland +0.25 Asian Handicap.

• Selection: Sunderland +0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.81
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 12.5/10 (1.25u)

Crawley vs Crewe: Just the fifty goals between them this season

England, League Two, Saturday, October 21st, 15:00 (UK)

Despite the 0-1 scoreline in their last home game against Wrexham, a match-up I’d have taken a pro-goals angle in if the prices hadn’t been too skinny, Crawley Town still recorded 25 shots to Wrexham’s ten. An early Wrexham red card around the hour mark no doubt massaged Crawley’s shot count favourably, though they still hit double digits in attempts before the half-time whistle came.

This is a team that plays on the front foot under Scott Lindsey as they continue to rewrite the pre-season clamour for them to trudge towards relegation to the National League. Few would have doubted Lindsey’s capabilities before a ball was kicked in August, and you’d have to say that he’s gone above and beyond in terms of expectations, considering the ingoings and outgoings we saw through the summer. Couple that with questionable decision-making at boardroom level and the concern emanating from the fanbase, and Crawley’s start to the season soon prompts the case for being League Two’s a minor miracle as we head into the latter stages of October.

Elsewhere, Crewe’s early foray into the season has also been nothing short of superb, especially in front of goal. Tranmere were on the end of another Crewe home victory on Saturday – a comfortable one at that, where the hosts should’ve been at least a couple of goals to the good after half an hour. That’s 30 goals scored now for Lee Bell’s Crewe. No League Two side has scored more this season, with the team sitting in 4th behind Stockport, Notts County, and Mansfield. So, it’s no surprise I’m pursuing an opportunity to get Crewe in my corner again next weekend.

Saturday’s away team also tops the charts for ‘BTTS and O2.5 Goals’ paying out the most in 2023/23, with 10/13 (77%) of games paying out for punters. The 42% of Crawley fixtures returning profits in this market is nowhere near as eye-catching, but you feel Crewe are the perfect opposition to get another on the board.

For me, the writing is on the wall here for this to be a shootout. We’ve got two forward-thinking League Two teams in a division averaging 3.06 per game who possess the players capable of finding the scoresheet regularly.

• Selection: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 10/10

Royal Antwerp vs Porto: Hosts are nothing to shout home about at this level

Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, October 25th, 19:45 (UK)

I had Shakhtar down as value (4.46) in their MD2 win over 1.88 faves, Royal Antwerp.

You can’t be overly convinced with the Ukrainians right now, but it was interesting to see how the market viewed each side. Shakhtar won in Belgium and outmuscled the hosts in terms of underlying numbers: 1.84xG vs 2.26xG. However, despite each side’s underlying process, the home side will be a bit miffed as to how they ended up losing that game.

Those prices led me to believe we may get a half-decent price on Porto here, and we have. It may not be the Porto we know from a few years back, with Otavio heading to Saudi for a pretty penny and leaving a void in the squad. Still, in terms of Champions League know-how and quality, they’re certainly more reliable than the Shakhtar ensemble that rocked up in Belgium.

Diogo Costa in net is probably one of the best players in his position in Europe at present, whilst the likes of Mehdi Taremi will pose problems all game – a real handful at times.

Despite playing away, I’d have Porto shorter here, probably around the 1.80 mark (2.05 currently), as their quality and experience should be enough to cause the hosts trouble. The humbling 5-0 Barça defeat in Spain can be excused, given the mismatch in talent, though it goes some way to indicating what level the Belgians are operating at.

In Porto vs Barca (MD2), Porto were unlucky. The stats won’t show it, but they could’ve won the contest on another day. Taremi’s overhead kick that was rightly ruled out for offside, coupled with the controversial overruling of their penalty, shows just how well-matched the two teams were in Porto. And that’s a Barca eleven, which turned Antwerp over 5-0 in Spain.

If Royal Antwerp manages a draw, something not beyond the realms of possibility for a Champions League team at home, then we’ll only lose half of our stake.

• Selection: Porto -0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.84
• Bookmaker: bet364
• Stakes: 10/10 (1u)

SAFER GAMBLING

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