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Horse Racing Sam Ingram’s Top Five Outright Best Bets 2023-24: Value In England
The season is nearing ever closer. And with that, let’s take a trip to the Championship for the majority, before dipping our toes into League One.
From Russel Martin’s new managerial appointment to Darren Moore out of the door in Sheffield – there’s plenty to discuss, propped up by five tracked outright bets.
In this article:
- Championship Relegation Outright
- Championship Top Six Finish Outright
- The Midlands Regional Winners Outright
- League One Top Six Finish Outright
- The Championship Top Goalscorer Outright
Championship Relegation Outright: From playoff euphoria to more questions than answers
England, The Championship, Championship Relegation Outright
I’m mindful that this pick is a bit premature. We’ve got more than a month of the transfer window remaining, but I can only go off what I see in front of me right now, coupled with the level of faith I have in the powers that be to make the right decisions ahead of the new campaign. To begin, let’s look at who The Owls may be competing against down there.
You’d expect Huddersfield, under Neil Warnock, to have somewhat of a relegation-repellant seeping out of every pore at the club. The Terriers’ man in the dugout knows the EFL – he’s familiar with life in the Championship. If you didn’t know, Warnock holds the record for the most promotions in English football, with eight from a five-decade-long stint in management.
The Premier League may not be on the agenda in Huddersfield, but you’re a braver bettor than me if locking horns with Neil Warnock at 4.00 in the relegation market is something you want to take on. So, with Huddersfield presumably safe, what about Sheffield Wednesday’s recently-promoted counterparts, Plymouth Argyle?
Forward-thinking Greens to defy the odds?
The Greens possess the capacity to surprise a few. Argyle head honcho Simon Hallet just sanctioned a £1m move for both Morgan Whittaker and Bali Mumba – two exciting returning loanees following a 101-point League One-winning season.
They need a striker, that’s for sure, plus a focus on bolstering the middle of the park. Get that right, and relegation may be far from the gaze of most in Devon. When thinking about Argyle next season, Callum Wright and Morgan Whittaker linking behind the frontman and creating chances in the second tier is at the forefront of my mind.
Unfortunately, Swansea recalling Whittaker on loan in League One meant we didn’t witness that link-up following Wright’s January switch. I expect we’ll be singing the praises of that pairing soon enough. The prospect of Aston Villa loanee Kaine Kesler-Hayden and Bali Mumba heading forward on either wing is a tantalising one, too.
The ambition of this progressive organisation is for all to see – that in itself should hold the club, which has a manager likely the envy of many a Championship supporter, in good stead moving forward.
A slog for the rest?
Next up, Rotherham. The Millers present as joint-favourites for the drop alongside Plymouth Argyle and will presumably be down there. Rotherham will again enter the campaign with one of the smallest budgets, with Plymouth Argyle for company. Although I’d love them to keep defying the odds season after season, it’s not outlandish to predict that another slog towards survival may occur.
I’m also apprehensive about QPR’s chances. The R’s stumbled across the line last season. The future under Gareth Ainsworth doesn’t scream growth and evolution in my eyes. We only have last season to go off, and that was a tough watch.
Cardiff, Birmingham, and Preston complete the betting up to 5.00. The latter two should be okay, especially The Blues, whose shrewd summer recruitment may take some by surprise.
Potential trouble at Chansiri’s door
So, Sheffield Wednesday. They may be in trouble. I’ve been harping on about their current situation since The Championship’s Early, Early Bird. The Owls need six or seven new faces at the time of writing – probably more. They may prove me wrong in the next month and get the 6/7/8+ players with quality they need through the door, but I don’t see that happening.
I don’t trust Chansiri at the decision-making level, and there are more question marks than answers around Muñoz coming in as head coach. He steered Watford to the Premier League the last time he was in England after taking the reins halfway through the season. Yet, I can’t help but think anything less than gaining a promotion was a drastic failure. The squad and the coaching were already in place for an immediate return to the Premier League.
A run of early, poor results in August/September and the feeling around the club following Darren Moore’s unexpected departure/worrying lack of new faces will snowball.
For me, it’s Rotherham (2.75), Plymouth Argyle(2.75), QPR(3.75), Cardiff City(4.00), and Sheffield Wednesday in a scrap to survive. At 5.00, I’ll take those odds compared to the rest. There’s a touch of value there.
I wouldn’t be overly surprised if The Owls stayed up, but I don’t think they’re much more likely compared to the likes of Rotherham/Argyle. Don’t write off the Championship’s four relegation spots taking another big fish next May.
- Selection: Sheffield Wednesday To Be Relegated (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 5.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10 (1u)
Championship Relegation Outright via bet365 as at 08:00, July 24th, 2023 Odds may now differ.
Championship Top Six Finish Outright: A squad to go all the way
England, The Championship, Championship Top Six Finish
In all honesty, this write-up started as a regional winner pick on bet365, similar to the Leicester City punt below. The Saints, at 2.75 on bet365, offers an intriguing alternative to a Southampton top-six finish at 2.00.
I wanted a few more substantial prices, given it’s an ante-post article. However, there was an niggling doubt of whether one of the regional winner’s pack could edge in front of a Saints outfit under new management (vs Watford, Norwich, Ipswich, Millwall and QPR).
Norwich and Watford should improve on disastrous seasons, but I can’t envisage either battling for the Championship crown like Southampton can. I like Ipswich’s chances. I’d be shocked if they don’t take points off the big boys and score a fair few goals in the process. But I assume they’ll fall short of the leading cohort in the division.
That being said, with the difference between the 2.75 regional winners price compared to the top six outright offerings, the proposed bet feels much safer at a price point not a million miles away.
If you fancy it, you can get behind Southampton at evens for a playoff spot at a minimum across various bookmakers. I think that might become something of a snatch-and-grab when looking back on the season next summer. Like Leicester City, the sheer quality in the Southampton squad is evident for all to see.
They may lose a few more. Tino Livramento links to Newcastle, the most recent word on the street, peddling the rumour mill. Elsewhere, Romeo Lavia is the hottest property in the Championship without ever playing a minute’s football in the division.
However, if they can keep hold of the majority, which looks like it’ll happen considering the eye-watering price tags slapped on their prized assets months ago, The Saints will have a squad ready to return to the Premier League.
For that reason alone, anything other than a top-six finish will disappoint Russel Martin and be a crushing blow to those above him. The former Swans gaffer had his team firing as the season ground to a halt last season. He will have some joy if he can get his new squad onside and continue impacting similarly from the dugout.
- Selection: Southampton – Championship Top Six Finish Outright (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: Paddy Power/Betfair/Boylesports/Betfred
- Stakes: 25/10 (2.5u)
Championship Top Six Finish Outright via bet365 as at 08:00, July 24th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
The Midlands Regional Winners Outright: Too strong in the Midlands
England, The Championship, The Midlands Regional Winners Outright
Without digging too deep, we only need to look at The Foxes’ recent pre-season friendly up against Northampton to assess the squad and the likelihood of them making a mockery of the Championship.
All of Ricardo, Faes, Coady, Doyle, Winks, Praet, Dewsbury-Hall, Castagne, and Jamie Vardy made up the team in Belgium. The departing Harvey Barnes sat out with a move to Newcastle now done, as did Soumare. Now imagine that team strutting its stuff in the Championship.
And, worryingly for the rest, that is without mentioning Harry Souttar, James Justin, Wilfried Ndidi, Marc Albrighton, Patson Daka and Iheanacho, whose roles centred around the bench.
Leicester to win the league at 5.00 is priced about right. Yet, if the season takes a course like I think it may, comparable to the Saints’ top-six finish price, it’s a price that hindsight may look back on with a tinge of annoyance.
The regional winner market opened around 2.10 for Leicester, which I posted in my Telegram group nearer the start of July. Regardless, at 1.90, it still presents a reasonable option. Trumping West Brom, Stoke, Coventry, and Birmingham shouldn’t be too much of an ask. That is, if you’re willing to sit it out for the season at an odds-against price.
- Selection: Leicester City – The Midlands Regional Winners Outright (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stakes: 30/10 (3u)
The Midlands Regional Winners Outright via bet365 as at 08:00, July 24th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
League One Top Six Finish Outright: Robust rearguard providing sound footing for repeat
England, League One, League One Top Six Finish Outright
Only Ipswich conceded fewer goals in League One than Bolton (36) last season. Both sides shipped a mirroring 13 strikes at home in 23 matches. Fifth spot in League One was the reward for that robust rearguard in Bolton, though Wanderers fans weren’t rewarded with a second Wembley visit in the playoffs.
The price of 2.00 immediately catches the eye, especially if Bolton can host League One opponents in a similar stingy fashion next term. They’ve just accomplished as much. Ian Evatt remains for another season. And there’s a sense that this is a Bolton outfit heading along a trajectory towards the Championship rather than whatever lies over their shoulder.
There’s no Argyle, Ipswich, or Sheffield Wednesday to contend with in 2023/24. And those coming down from the Championship shouldn’t offer the same standard of competition. If that’s the case, finishing as part of the top six again feels within Evatt’s grasp.
- Selection: Bolton – League One Top Six Finish Outright (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: Boylesports/Unibet
- Stakes: 15/10 (1.5u)
League One Top Six Finish Outright via bet365 as at 08:00, July 24th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Championship Top Goalscorer Outright: Back in the Championship with a point to prove
England, The Championship, The Championship Top Goalscorer Outright
You may think Adam Armstrong is a touch left field and somewhat ambitious, but hear me out. He boasts a pedigree at this level. The 28 goals for Blackburn Rovers in his last season in the division showcased his ability as a Championship striker and convinced Southampton to take a punt on him.
It’s a punt that hasn’t worked out to date. Armstrong rarely threatened Premier League defences (4G in 53 apps), and I can’t see him doing so any time soon. Yet, in the second tier, well, that’s a different story.
Armstrong has a role to play in the campaign ahead by the looks of preseason under Russel Martin. He looks sharp, and he took his goal really well against Reading – the kind of finish reminiscent of his time in blue and white – snatching at a first-time shot with urgent precision, arrowing the ball towards the corner.
Couple his finishing ability with the prospect of featuring as one of the leading strikers in a stacked Premier League-level squad, and we may be onto something at 20/1. Play 40+ fixtures at the top end of the pitch in this team, and you’ll do well. The Geordie racked up a goal every 165 minutes last time he was here.
Russel Martin spoke on how versatile his new forward is, “I think he [Adam Armstrong] can play wide for us. I think he can play nine and ten, so we want him comfortable in as many positions as we can.”
Although being shoved out onto the wing all season wouldn’t be great, the above lowdown on where Armstrong may fit puts my mind at ease. Martin likes him. It sounds like he’ll shoehorn him in the side if needs be, and he’ll more than do the job.
He will get chances. Whether he takes enough of them will determine just how daft this each-way (top four places) position will look come Christmas.
It’s a touch left-field. We’ll need Armstrong to muster something he hasn’t done as a Saint. But I don’t think it’s a million miles away from happening.
- Selection: Adam Armstrong – Championship Top Goalscorer Outright [Each Way] (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 21.00
- Bookmaker: Skybet
- Stakes: 5/10 (0.5u [0.25u EW])
The Championship Top Goalscorer Outright via bet365 as at 08:00, July 24th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Odds via bet365, Skybet, and Boylesports as at 08:00, July 24th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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