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Horse Racing Early, Early Bird Premier League Best Bets: Three Punts, Four Weeks To Go
Early, Early Bird Premier League Best Bets: 13th July
There will be a few fresh faces in the Premier League come August. Ange Postocoglue, Luton Town, and a new Manchester United goalkeeper being just three – all of which may prove quite important to the three selections below.
We may be four weeks away from the start of play, but that doesn’t mean we can get stuck into the meat and drink of the opening day’s Premier League schedule.
In this article:
- Brentford vs Tottenham Preview & Best Bet
- Man Utd vs Wolves Preview & Best Bet
- Brighton vs Luton Preview & Best Bet
Brentford vs Tottenham Preview
England, Premier League, Sunday, August 13th, 14:00 (UK)
This is the standout price of the Premier League’s opening weekend, in my opinion. Look, Ange Postocoglu’s Spurs may arrive and put Brentford to bed with ease. They might even prove to be a force with the Aussie in charge. However, The Bees are no pushovers, especially at home.
Brentford only lost two fixtures on home soil in 2022/23. Arsenal (0-3) in September and Newcastle (1-2) in April were the said double act capable of snatching all three points. Manchester City (1-0), Manchester United (4-0), Brighton (2-0), and Liverpool (3-1) all fell short.
So, when handed a +0.25 Asian Handicap in the host’s favour – something that returned profits in 17/19 Brentford home games – it’s enough to turn heads.
There’s no Ivan Toney. We have no idea if Brentford can continue such exploits for another season. It’s impossible to predict how good Spurs will be under Ange. But what we do know is there’s previous to go off in terms of Premier League robustness when playing in front of a home crowd.
Perhaps we shouldn’t rely on Spurs’ data too heavily, given the change on the sidelines. Yet, the core of the team will be largely similar. This is a side that won just six matches on the road in 2022/23.
Focusing on their opponents’ +0.25 Asian Handicap line over the course of last term, you’ll find it would have banked returns in 13/19 fixtures.
Brentford vs Tottenham Best Bet
Many reading this will be returning to the brief mention of Ivan Toney as a genuine concern. I get it. He’s a huge miss. However, the final three Brentford games of the season that he missed read as follows: WWW.
City, on the final day, had their mind on other things. Still, most of the playing staff hoped to muscle into Pep’s FA Cup and Champions League final plans. And even if that wasn’t on their agenda, you’d expect the embarrassment of riches in Guardiola’s rotated eleven to be more than a match for anyone in the Premier League.
West Ham’s 2-0 loss in Brentford and a 1-3 victory against, notably, Tottenham Hotspur ensured a hat-trick of Toney-less Ws as the season fizzled to a close.
Brentford at home shouldn’t be overlooked. I’d assume the bet365 price will gradually edge towards other bookmakers’ offerings (Pinnacle: 1.83) soon enough.
- Selection: Brentford +0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.95 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10 (1u)
More Brentford vs Tottenham Tips
Man Utd vs Wolves Preview
England, Premier League, Sunday, August 14th, 20:00 (UK)
The return of the Premier League is edging closer. First up, in Manchester, Old Trafford will host a weary-looking Wolverhampton Wanderers.
It’s safe to say this Wolves side doesn’t do their best work away from Wolverhampton. In 2022/23, they scored the second-fewest goals (12) away from home last campaign. Only Forest, who flattered to deceive on the road last term, scored less (11).
A 5-0 hammering from Arsenal (2.81xG vs 0.45xG) tells the whole story of Wolves’ final away game. Before that, Manchester United beat them 2-0 (3.20xG vs 0.33xG) after Brighton made a mockery of Julen Lopetegui’s men. The Seagulls dismantled Wolves to the tune of 6-0 and 3.34xG vs 0.75xG on the underlying metrics.
As you can see, not only were Wolves picked apart by their hosts in the final weeks, but they also offered very little going forward. If there’s any hangover from the last campaign, it may play out in the shape of Wolves’ bluntness when visiting the bigger teams.
Man Utd vs Wolves Best Bet
We’ve touched on their final three away games, which coincidentally fell against three of the big boys, but how did Wolves fair against the rest of the top six? Here’s what Wolves served up to those travelling fans in gold and black: Manchester City: 3-0, Liverpool 2-0, and Newcastle United 2-1.
That makes Wolves’ escapades against the top six away from home read as 20-1 on aggregate. Additionally, Wolves’ two away wins from 19 came against Everton and Southampton -a couple of sides struggling for air themselves for long periods.
Will Wolves start dictating matches against the top six in 2023/24? I doubt it. As we don’t have form, a full pre-season, or a completed transfer window to go off, I’m happy to take that 1.90 price for both teams to fail to score ahead of the opening day.
- Selection: Both Teams To Score – No
- Best Odds: 1.90 (bet365)
- Stakes: 5/10
Brighton vs Luton Preview
England, Premier League, Sunday, August 14th, 20:00 (UK)
This train of thought isn’t rocket science. If you were tasked to browse the Premier League’s opening day fixture for a mismatch in quality, this would be high on most people’s lists.
I don’t necessarily believe in the notion that Luton Town will be one of the worst sides the Premier League has seen in modern memory. They’ll make life tricky for several sides. However, I don’t see one of said teams being Brighton at The Amex.
Luton’s summer transfer activity fills me with little expectation for the Premier League season ahead. But why should it? The Hatters are operating with a budget a million miles away from the rest. The focus for them, away from ringfencing the club’s future off the pitch, is to ensure they’re financially stable and have a cohort of players capable and willing to be relegated and fight for an instant return.
You can see such an approach in their signings to date. Mads Andersen has anchored from League One outfit Barnsley, Birmingham’s Tahith Chong is on the cusp of a £4m move, and former Rotherham man Chiedozie Ogbene joined on a free transfer early in July.
The three once-EFL stars’ task is to join a team that was recently punching above its weight in the Championship and attempt to go one greater whilst negotiating through the best league in the world. It’s a monumental ask. And one I doubt will end in Premier League longevity.
Brighton vs Luton Best Bet
So, we can’t expect Luton to travel to the South Coast and nick something from their first Premier League game. The bookmaker’s odds reflect as much.
In terms of the proposed bet, the Seagulls should have enough to force multiple strikes at home to Luton, but at 1.44, it’s not something to tackle head-on. Additionally, combining a Brighton win and two or more goals for the home team gets us to 1.53. Again, something to avoid.
For the proposed selection, the -1.25 Asian Handicap, we’ll only lose half stakes if Brighton wins by one goal. And we’ll return full profits if they win by two or more.
The 1.77 on Unibet may be backed into around 1.70 soon enough, alongside bet365 and Pinnacle. If that happens before you see this and still want on, the Brighton -1.5 Asian Handicap on bet365 is a handy alternative at Evens (1u).
- Selection: Brighton -1.25 Asian Handicap
- Best Odds: 1.77 (Unibet)
- Stakes: 10/10
Odds via be365 and Unibet as at TIME MONTH DATE YEAR. Odds may now differ.
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