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Boxing Early, Early Bird Championship Best Bets: Three Selections And A Premature Glance Towards The Second Tier
Early, Early Bird EFL Best Bets: Friday 4th August – Sunday 6th August
We’ve got a stacked Championship card to sink our teeth into on the opening weekend. Not only that, but we’ll be blessed with four games on our television screens. From Friday night to the 15:00 kick-offs on Saturday, before a televised trio welcomes the first action-packed Sunday of an EFL campaign that promises so much. What more could you want?
The ‘Early Bird’ was one of my favourite pieces of weekly content last season. It seems only right that it’s back once again and ahead of schedule. This time, it’s here a bit earlier than usual. Anyway, enough of the waffle – let’s get into it.
In this article:
- Sheffield Wednesday vs Southampton Preview & Best Bet
- Watford vs QPR Preview & Best Bet
- Sunderland vs Ipswich Preview & Best Bet
Sheffield Wednesday vs Southampton Preview
England, Championship, Friday, August 4th, 20:00 (UK)
It’s feasible that all three of the Premier League’s relegated sides oversee a swift top-flight return. The evident quality in each current crop and the accompanying finances threaten to overshadow the rest before someone punts a second-tier ball in anger.
On that note, you won’t be surprised to see one of said three feature in my opening Championship bet of the season.
Russel Martin finds himself in the dugout after a spell in Swansea. His opposite number, Xisco Muñoz, also faces a first competitive game for his new club in the opening fixture.
A previous spell in Watford ended in promotion to the Premier League for Muñoz. The Spaniard has winning experience at this level. However, his Hornets side, one bursting with Premier League quality and expectations to sample the dizzy heights of the division, is a stark contrast to the position he occupies at present.
The Owls may have had enough to swat League One aside, but this is a different beast. Muñoz will now oversee a team potentially looking over their shoulder for periods this campaign instead of a stacked squad which had just navigated five Premier League seasons on the spin.
Muñoz is a risky appointment by Sheffield Wednesday owner Dejphon Chansiri no matter how you dress it up. The ten months in North London following a December arrival isn’t enough to convince. Yet, the adage “you can only beat what’s in front of you” rings true here – Muñoz couldn’t have done much more than successfully build on Vladimir Ivic’s work at Watford before him.
Filling Darren Moore’s boots will be tough. He was a likeable character, and you’ll struggle to find many in the Sheffield Wednesday dressing room not gutted by his departure.
After recently masterminding perhaps the most memorable couple of weeks in most of the player’s career and the club’s history, it feels bonkers to enter the upcoming season without Darren Moore. But here we are. One would assume that the current circumstances will make Muñoz’s task even more of an uphill battle.
Make a poor start to the campaign and any doubts will intensify. Fail to perform how the fans see fit and damning questions will follow sooner than they usually would do for a managerial replacement of someone underperforming or poached by a different club.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Southampton Best Bet
We don’t have the usual lines of information to go off in this Early, Early Bird. There’s no form, analysis of recent head-to-heads, or even a pre-match press conference to whet the appetite. And that makes any potential punt tricky to approach.
What we do have, evidently, is the gulf in class between the two clubs right now. Southampton will likely lose a few key components. Yet, with the financial muscle on the South Coast, Premier League talent should replace any outgoing Premier League talent.
In the blue corner, Sheffield Wednesday will have their say in terms of players through the door at Hillsborough. Chansiri has explained how Muñoz will have a ‘flexible’ budget to work with, plus he’ll be the one to make the final call on any acquisitions.
Speaking of Hillsborough, the opening day will be a sellout. Sheffield Wednesday are back in the Championship. The atmosphere will be raucous. However, it’s the away side that provides an Asian Handicap intriguing enough to get behind.
The 0.0 Asian Handicap, for those unsure, is effectively a ‘Draw No Bet’ selection. The majority involved with the home side, from the new gaffer to those decking out Hillsborough in blue and white, would likely take a draw if offered a share of the spoils now.
We’ll need Russel Martin to avoid losing the battle of the two new managers first and foremost. In my mind, the likelihood of a stacked starting eleven at his disposal as we approach the opening day should affect Southampton’s odds offering as the televised Friday evening fixture hurtles towards kick-off.
The powers that be at St Mary’s have reportedly set eye-watering price tags for their most prized possessions. If they can keep hold of the likes of James Ward-Prowse, whilst convincing Carlos Alcaraz, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Nathan Tella and Co that this is a project worthy of their services for another year, then they will clinch a top six spot at a minimum.
And as mentioned previously, line up with such quality on the opening night of the Championship, and we may witness money come for the away side. That 1.83 price for the 0.0 Asian Handicap may not be as healthy as we see now.
- Selection: Southampton 0.0 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.83 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10
More Sheffield Wednesday vs Southampton Tips
Watford vs QPR Preview
England, Championship, Saturday, August 5th, 15:00 (UK)
This one falls into the category of potentially beating the market come August 5th. Watford can be backed at bet365 to win the game at 1.83. On Pinnacle, the Hornets are 2.08 shots in the 1X2 market (and 1.79 for the -0.25 Asian Handicap). So, it feels like a goer to get a handicap on our side where a draw returns half your stake at a price point between the two.
Watford -0.25 Asian Handicap opened on William Hill at 1.95, meaning we’re not quite ahead of the curve. However, that’s often expected with these ante-post-type articles released weeks after a bookmaker’s market has gone live.
Backing a team in the first game of the season that flattered to deceive last term and finished 11th – far away from pre-season expectations- isn’t in the usual playbook. Yet, their opponents endured an even worse stretch in 2022/23, one that flirted with League One football.
Gareth Ainsworth came in and somehow halted the slide. Whether that was up to him is another question entirely, though he remains as QPR boss and now has a first full pre-season under his belt. Like Xisco Muñoz, a sticky patch nearer the start of the upcoming campaign is the last thing Ainsworth needs. Unfortunately for him, Watford away from home isn’t the most leisurely start to 2023/24.
Watford’s new head honcho, Valerien Ismael, joins Ainsworth, Muñoz, and Russel Martin as the fourth of four new-ish faces in this article’s dugout so far. Formerly of Barnsley and West Brom, Ismael’s brave foray onto the Watford managerial carousel comes after Chris Wilder’s brief stint north of the capital last season.
Ismael isn’t the only new face at Vicarage Road. Rhys Healey arrives in Watford from Toulouse. The forward impressed in Ligue 2 in 2021/22, scoring 20 goals in 32 appearances. Unfortunately for the Englishman, an injury derailed any chances of featuring consistently in France’s top division. He did, however, find the net twice from four substitute appearances.
Tom Ince also makes his way to The Hornets as Reading crash and burn towards the perils of League One. He might be advancing in years, but he showed glimpses last season that he’s still capable of performing at this level at 31 years old. It may not have been a signing I’d have opted for in Ismael’s shoes, but at £50,000, there can be few complaints.
All of Craig Cathcart, Britt Assombolonga, Leandro Bacuna, Domingos Quina, and Joao Pedro head in the other direction. That’s a fair bit of experience and quality moving to new pastures, so Watford’s recruitment will need to be on the money between now and the 5th of August.
Watford vs QPR Best Bet
I’m not sold on QPR at present. It’s hard to be convinced after 2022/23, right? Gareth Ainsworth may be out of his depth, but I also feel it’s a little unfair to judge him on the back end of last season. When he took over, the club was in freefall in the Championship, and I’m convinced most managers would have struggled.
Nevertheless, looking at the odds, I can’t see many better EFL opportunities on the opening day. If QPR makes their short journey a fruitful one with three points, it’ll be viewed as a sizable victory – even at this early stage.
I’m confident in Watford avoiding defeat with the early information we have to go off. And with the handicap in question, that would ring-fence at least half of our stake.
- Selection: Watford -0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.88 (William Hill)
- Stakes: 12.5/10
Sunderland vs Ipswich Preview
England, Championship, Sunday, August 6th, 17:00 (UK)
The Tractor Boys have ridden the wave of automatic promotion straight to Sunderland. They didn’t do it via a laborious, steady ascent, as the nickname suggests. It was much more exhilarating than that, especially if you’re of an Ipswich Town persuasion.
Ninety-eight points, 101 goals, and some scintillating football to boot – Town deserve their Championship status. But now the plan is to kick on. And with Kieran Mckenna at the helm, anything is possible for the upcoming campaign. Ipswich (3.25 – bet365) are eighth favourite to go from League One to a top-six Championship playoff spot.
I’m not sure whether they’ll have enough to upset the apple cart in England’s second tier, but they’re certainly equipped with the playing staff to disrupt those who call it home. The newly-promoted Championship outfit scored two or more goals in 67% of matches (31/46) in 2022/23. No other team in the EFL managed more. Bring that front-footedness up with you, accompanied by signings to flourish at this level, and we may be in for a few spectacles next season.
Sunderland vs Ipswich Best Bet
The above makes the 1.95 price for over 2.5 goals at the Stadium of Light an enticing one. The hosts won plaudits for their young, exuberant, attacking components as they raced towards playoff football last term. Jack Clarke, Amad Diallo, and Patrick Roberts, to name just three, are enough to give defenders nightmares in tandem.
With Ross Stewart working his way back to fitness and players such as Tom Cannon reportedly linked with a move, it’s enough to get excited over Sunderland’s chances once again. Tony Mowbray has plenty in his arsenal to pose a threat to every single Championship backline. I’m banking on the same being said in Ipswich following the summer transfer window – one that I back Mckenna and his recruitment team to navigate well.
Let’s hope that Ipswich shows up as fearless as Sunderland did following their promotion in 2021/22 – Sky Sports will be. Perhaps they’ll prove precisely why this match-up was one of the first pencilled in to be televised on The EFL’s opening weekend.
- Selection: Over 2.5 Goals
- Best Odds: 1.95 (bet365)
- Stakes: 5/10
Odds via bet365 and William Hill as at 15:00, 10th July, 2023. Odds may now differ.
More Sunderland vs Ipswich Tips
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