Early Bird Tips for the Champions League and the Championship: Swift Mauling for The Lions?

It’s been a while, but Sam Ingram is back on Early Bird duties for the first time this season, with his Early Bird Tips for the Champions League and the Championship covering multiple positions that look worth inspecting before the masses do.

Considering the quick turnaround in the EFL fixture schedule this week, expect to find both midweek and weekend selections below.

Let’s get to it.

• Early Bird Tips for Plymouth Argyle vs Millwall: Plymouth 0.0 First Half Asian Handicap
• Early Bird Tips for Newcastle vs PSG: PSG +0.25 Asian Handicap
• Early Bird Tips for Sheffield Wednesday vs Huddersfield: Huddersfield Draw No Bet

Acca odds: 6.82

Odds via bet365 as at 13:00, September 30th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Plymouth Argyle vs Millwall: If we see Millwall a little hungover…

England, Championship, Tuesday, October 3rd, 19:45 (UK)

It’s a selection that hasn’t lost this season. More specifically, the 0.0 First Half Asian Handicap has landed in five out of six of Argyle’s home matches, with the 0-0 opening 45 scoreline against Southampton providing a push for any Green Army-backers.

Getting the Asian Handicap on our side after a 6-2 victory (4-0 at half-time) over Norwich in Devon last time out, at a 1.85 price, is a wise avenue into the game. The original punt for this Early Bird article was the 0.0 AH covering the 90 minutes, though that has since shortened from 2.02 to 1.78 after Millwall endured a Welsh hiding in front of home support on Saturday.

The 0-3 loss to the travelling Swans, who haven’t exactly pulled up trees under new manager Michael Duff, caps off a bang average first nine games of the campaign for Millwall. Only Sheffield Wednesday (5) have scored fewer goals than Gary Rowett’s side from the capital (7).

The Lions have been behind at the break in 2/4 of away outings this term, with a Push coming in the two other half-time scores. So, not only has the first-half selection not lost in Plymouth colours in the opening stages of 2023/24, but it also hasn’t fallen short for Tuesday’s visitors.

If we see Millwall a little hungover from their weekend loss and an Argyle team doing what they so often do in Devon, the Greens may just edge in front come the halfway mark. You’d have to say that Millwall are the better team on the whole, but Argyle has plenty of outlets that can hurt opposition in Whittaker, Azaz, Hardie, Mumba, etc – and they regularly do so at Home Park.

Contrastingly, Millwall have found goals hard to come by away from home in 2023/24. They managed just three goals [from 3.3xG] in four games – Rotherham being the one Championship side to stump up fewer (2) on the road.

Argyle, who won 20/23 home fixtures in their League One-winning season last campaign, scored 44 goals before the break, with a first-goal average time of 37.60. It’s obviously challenging to decipher how that’ll translate in a more demanding division where Argyle are the small fish in a big pond. Still, we’ve already seen them take no prisoners in August and September.

• Selection: Plymouth Argyle 0.0 First Half Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Newcastle vs PSG: Familiar with the big occasion

Europe, Champions League, Tuesday, October 3rd, 19:45 (UK)

The Champions League returns to St. James’ Park for the first time in twenty years on Wednesday. The atmosphere will be unrelenting and the home side will likely feed off it for spells and make life uncomfortable for PSG.

A draw would have to be seen as a superb result for Newcastle given the stature of the club visiting Tyneside, whilst a point on the road is still a favourable outcome for PSG – a result that pays out half profits here. Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembele, & Randal Kolo Muani will accompany Kylian Mbappé, who will feature this weekend/against Toon post-injury scare.

I’d assume PSG finds the net here after seeing off Dortmund 2-0 (2.46xG vs 0.66xG) on Matchday 1, and hitting Marseille for four last weekend. The 0-0 draw to bottom-placed Clermont in Ligue 1 on Saturday night is far from ideal preparation, though I’d still expect a more focused, cutthroat version of PSG during their trip to England.

If they do nick a goal in Newcastle, the hosts will obviously need to score 2+ against a seasoned Champions League outfit that is familiar with the big occasion to scupper the bet – not a straightforward task.

I feel like the bookmakers underestimate just how transformative the arrival of Luis Enrique could be in Paris, coupled with their new arrivals more than capable of causing a splash in Europe. It’s why you could back the Parisians as group winners at 2.38 to win their group before the tournament kicked off, and it goes some way to explaining why PSG have a quarter goal head start at a decent price here in the North of England.

• Selection: PSG +0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (1u)

Sheffield Wednesday vs Huddersfield: The Darren Moore derby

England, Championship, Saturday, October 7th, 15:00 (UK)

The Darren Moore derby. And how he’d like to get one over on under-fire Xisco Munoz and, more specifically, Dejphon Chansiri.

The new Huddersfield gaffer has overseen an uplift in performance in his first two games in charge. That is, whilst Sheffield Wednesday and their in-game performances look as if they’re dwindling, compounded by an owner who seemingly can’t resist being amongst the headlines.

A 95th-minute Michal Helik equaliser against Coventry and going a goal ahead to an Ipswich Town side that looks largely unstoppable have laid the foundations for Moore’s tenure. Both ended 1-1, but there were signs in both that’ll go some way to easing fears regarding the departing Neil Warnock in that part of England.

Chansiri’s recent statement to fans outlined how he’ll no longer invest in the club after regular unpleasant interactions with the fanbase. The timing of said statement was mind-boggling, coming on the morning of the Friday night Sunderland fixture where they were duly taught a lesson that only Championship promotion-chasers could’ve kept up with.

Of course, The Terriers won’t pose the type of test that Sunderland did, but you can be sure Darren Moore will have his team fired up. And by the looks of things, after the buy-in displayed in his opening two fixtures, that squad will want to run through a brick wall for their new man. Put simply, we shouldn’t forget that this is a very winnable Championship away fixture for Huddersfield Town – they won’t get many of them this season.

The question has to be asked: Why are Sheffield Wednesday such heavy favourites (2.30 vs 3.10) next weekend?

A word of warning – keep an eye out for the release of the Asian Handicap lines. You may be able to pick up a better position than this on their arrival.

• Selection: Huddersfield Draw No Bet
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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