Transfer Betting Odds: Transfer Specials in January

The transfer betting odds plastered across most bookmakers in January and the summer months represents an increasingly influential facet of the modern game. Recruitment can make or break the chances of a club harnessing success while inadvertently killing or propelling a manager’s reputation in the game simultaneously.

Here, Sam Ingram delves into the transfer betting odds behind some of the biggest names in the sport. Will Jadon Sancho rid United’s shackles and waltz into new pastures? Or will Pedro Neto swap the Midlands/Premier League for something more exotic now that he’s back and fighting fit?

Transfer betting Odds: Transfer Specials in January

• The bookmaker’s transfer betting odds
• Go and guarantee a spot on the plane Kalvin Phillips
• Form an orderly queue for Victor Osimhen
• Homegrown Dominic Solanke on the move
• Pedro Neto: Back from injury at the right time?
• Safer Gambling

The Bookmaker’s transfer betting odds: Kalvin Phillips the remaining standout option after potential Sancho loan switch

Go and guarantee a spot on the plane Kalvin Phillips

Despite the Manchester City man’s lacking minutes, Gareth Southgate continues to pick Kalvin Phillips in his England qualifying squads. Considering Southgate has recently come out and suggested Aaron Ramsdale, who is struggling for minutes himself at Arsenal, needs to be playing more to warrant inclusion in future set-ups, does that mean the likes of Phillips and Maguire should be seeking a move away from Manchester?

Juventus (4.50) reportedly leads the way in terms of interest for the holding midfielder, according to The Athletic and bookmaker’s transfer odds. Interestingly, the 2.75 on BetVictor’s Transfer Odds for Phillips to join any Italian club could be the way to go if a switch to Serie A appeals. 

If not, and it’s the Old Lady you fancy Phillips to make the switch to given Massimiliano Allegri is a fan, the 4.50 at Betfair and Paddy Power is one that dwarfs the rest. Bet365 (2.00), Skybet (2.10) and Coral (2.10) are nowhere near the transfer odds that Paddy and Betfair are offering punters.

Elsewhere, recent media reports also indicate that Kalvin Phillips may not need to move too far from the Etihad, with him being included on Eddie Howe’s shopping list at Old Trafford. With Sandro Tonali banned, there’s a hole in that Newcastle midfield. Howe’s Magpies have experienced absentee troubles more than most in this campaign, so the emergence of links to Kalvin Phillips is not a surprise. 

Newcastle is the even-money favourite across the board (Sky, Paddy, Betfair, and Coral), though it’s bet365 that stands out price-wise above the rest if you think the deal can get done. At 2.40, there’s juice at that price compared to the rest.

Homegrown Dom Solanke on the move? Arsenal’s Transfer Odds have them as favourites 

Dominic Solanke entered the opening of the January Transfer window with 12 goals in 19 Premier League matches this term. The arrival of Andoni Iraola has, after a patchy start, breathed new life into the South Coast club and, in turn, their English goal-getter in Solanke.

There’s a substantial argument to be made that the 26-year-old should be firmly in the frame for a call-up to the England squad for the Euros. In his current form, it’s hard to disagree. It’s not only Gareth Southgate whose head has been on a swivel when Dom repeatedly finds the net in the Premier League. 

According to Skybet, Arsenal (9.00), Tottenham (11.00), Newcastle (17.00), and Brighton (17.00), the only four sides priced in the race for his signature, signal there could be interest from sides expected to finish nearer the summit of the division. 

Rule Newcastle out of the race. Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak are enough in forward areas right now, especially with the Toon’s priorities to reinforce being elsewhere in midfield. Brighton? Potentially. Although there’s likely no world where Evan Ferguson and Solanke fit into the same side. It’s the two North London clubs that would benefit from a proper goalscoring number nine. Harry Kane leaving Spurs has left a void, and there’s clearly room for one at The Emirates.

Homegrown and bagging

Goalscoring number nines, especially of the homegrown English variety, are extremely rare right now. If he were to move, they’d need to pay a premium, but it could be a steal in the correct set-up. For me, though, it feels like something that might materialise for Dom in the summer. 

However, don’t be overly surprised if The Gunners do make a move for a striker in January. They need one if a Premier League crown is what they’re after in 2023/24.

Ivan Toney has been heavily linked to an Arsenal move in January. It’ll cost upwards of £80m, with Brentford playing hardball on their valuation. If The Gunners get to a sticking point where they’re unwilling to meet the necessary price tag for someone of Toney’s quality, Solanke could be next in line.

Pedro Neto Transfer Betting Odds: Back from injury at the right time? 

The Wolves man was finding form once again in the Premier League – so direct, willing to beat a man, and blessed with the capabilities to do so with ease. He’s not only a full-back’s worst nightmare, but he’s also at the top of many shopping lists.

Unfortunately for Pedro Neto, but maybe not for Wolves fans, injury befell the 23-year-old once more this season. He’s back now and should make losing Hwang Hee-Chan much more palatable for those in the Midlands. They can’t lose the South Korean to the Asia Cup and Pedro Neto to a rival Premier League club, could they? Stranger things have happened. 

Neto laid on seven assists and scored one goal in his first ten games of the season before picking up an injury. Gary O’Neil will be acutely aware that Neto is not only his game-changer – the Joker in the deck – but also that clubs will be sniffing around his services. 

Under Contract

The Wolves man has a contract to 2027 and is valued in excess of £50m, as you’d expect for someone of Neto’s quality. They don’t need to sell. They’ll be in no rush to get rid of one of their prized assets. Yet, there aren’t many Premier League proven wingers at 23 years old who can come in and make a difference right now. Pedro Neto is one of them. You’d think he would interest a whole host of clubs.

Again, like Dom Solanke, Arsenal are 7.00 favourites with BetVictor, whilst Unibet has them at 8.00. Skybet prices Liverpool at the front of their transfer odds at 6.00 for Neto to follow the same path as compatriot and now Reds forward Diogo Jota. 

David Ornstein at The Athletic has said that any deal for Neto is likely to be done in the summer, so keep that in mind when approaching the January transfer betting odds. He also mentioned that Manchester City (21.00 – BetVictor) likes Pedro Neto. Could they move in earlier than expected?

Avoid January’s Transfer betting Odds and form an orderly queue in the summer for Victor Osimhen

Napoli’s fortunes have taken a tumble since the Serie A-winning season last term. A new manager came in, performed poorly, and was replaced in Naples by Walter Mazzarri whilst those at the right end of the division threatened to pull away.

Their leading striker, Victor Osimhen, is like gold dust in the current market. He’s a number nine that will come in and transform your attacking unit. He’ll cost an arm, leg and maybe a vital organ, but you can be sure he’d arrive with a thirst and penchant to score a shed-load of goals. Last season, 26 goals in 30 league starts from 21.6xG has put the Nigerian firmly in the upper echelon of striking talent. 

It’s why we’re discussing him right now, and it’s why so many are sniffing around his services. Don’t be shocked if there’s a bid in January, though the summer window will always be the more likely time for a move as substantial as this to be ushered through.

Chelsea is at the front of the queue at 6.00 on Skybet and William Hill and 10.00 on Unibet. That looks like a match made in heaven, given the question marks surrounding Nicholas Jackson’s ability to spearhead a Premier League attack.

Napoli’s owner, Aurelio De Laurentiis, is notoriously hard to deal with. The fact that he would be in charge of any deal makes a January move challenging to negotiate, as does Victor Osimhen, who is now 100% focused on Nigeria’s chances at AFCON for the whole of January. I’d recommend swerving anything to do with the Napoli striker until the summer window when his transfer odds should be a little skinnier.

When does the January transfer window open?

The January transfer window in England, Germany and France opened on Monday, January 1st, 2024.

In Spain and Italy, the window opened a little later on Tuesday, January 2nd, 2024.

When does the January transfer window close?

France, Spain, and Italy’s transfer windows will close before the rest on January 31st, 2024. 

Serie A sides will have until 18:00, with La Liga’s window shutting at 23:00 (UK) on January 31st, 2024.

Next, the Bundesliga transfer window ends at 17:00 on February 1st, 2024.

Lastly, the transfer window will close for English teams at 23:00 (UK) on Thursday, February 1st, 2024 – a day later than France, Spain and Italy.

Betting On The January Transfer Window Odds

Bookmakers provide an extensive selection of transfer odds for each year’s January transfer window. The leading players are usually bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair.

January is a notoriously tricky time to get transfers over the line. But that doesn’t stop clubs from trying. There are case studies for some really impressive January transfers in recent years; think Nemanja Vidic in 2006 for £7m from Dinamo Moscow or Virgil van Dijk’s switch from Southampton to Liverpool for £75m – what a central defensive duo that would be by the way. 

At the top end of the pitch, Luis Suarez signed for Liverpool a day after Fernando Torres went to Chelsea in January. And that came a year before Phillipe Coutinho washed up on Mersey shores and performed excellently for the red side of the city.

But, of course, not all January signings work. There’s an Andy Carroll (signed for Liverpool on the same day – we all remember the Suarez/Carroll images) for every Luis Suarez. 

The current 2024 January transfer window is an intriguing one, as always. This winter, players will be eyeing moves away from their current clubs in a bid to put a foot forward for their respective nations ahead of Euro 2024 and Copa America. No one wants to be languishing on a cold subs bench if they can help it, especially if it will downgrade any chance of performing in national team colours.

As always, bettingexpert is on hand to prove all the transfer betting odds surrounding players who may be getting itchy feet at their current clubs.

Transfer Betting Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

How do I win a transfer bet?

It’s simple – if the team of your choice signs the player before the deadline has passed in that country, your transfer bet will be a winner and you’ll be paid out at said odds.

Do loan deals count?

It might vary for each bookmaker, so make sure you check, but loans will largely count towards any bets.

Here is bet365’s stance: “The club of the player refers to the club that the player will be eligible to play for on the date specified. Loan deals count for this purpose.”

And here’s Skybet’s: “Loan deals WILL count unless otherwise stated.”

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.