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The Premier League relegation odds; the type of content you’d like to scroll through and see your side absolutely nowhere near it. Not even a mention. Unfortunately for some (we’re looking at you, Blades and Hatters fans), that’s not a reality that washes around these parts.
So, please, read on, but don’t get too comfortable. There’s a relegation spot or three with someone’s name on it. Our expert, Sam Ingram, provides an overview.
In This Premier League Relegation Odds Article:
- Premier League Relegation Odds
- Luton Town Relegation Odds: The Favourites
- Sheffield United Relegation Odds: Blades Not So Sharp
- Start of the Season Favourites In The PL Relegation Betting
- Newly-Promoted Team Analysis
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Safer Gambling
Premier League Relegation Odds
For the rest of you not involved in the Premier League relegation odds betting landscape, please feel free to grab a coffee, put your feet up, and indulge in a stress-free jaunt down and around the perilous streets of the infamous drop to the Championship slog.
Be wary, though, this is a race, a scrap, a dogfight – whatever you wish to call it – which has suckered in even the most established clubs in England’s leading division over the years. Who would have thought that 2015/16 Premier League champions Leicester City would be slogging it out in the division below less than a decade later?
| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Man City | 1000.00 | 0.10% |
| Arsenal | 1000.00 | 0.10% |
| Liverpool | 1000.00 | 0.10% |
| Tottenham | 1001.00 | 0.10% |
| Newcastle | 1001.00 | 0.10% |
| Brighton | 501.00 | 0.20% |
| Aston Villa | 501.00 | 0.20% |
| Man Utd | 151.00 | 0.70% |
| Chelsea | 151.00 | 0.70% |
| Brentford | 100.00 | 1.00% |
| West Ham | 51.00 | 2.00% |
| Crystal Palace | 34.00 | 2.90% |
| Nottingham Forest | 10.00 | 10.00% |
| Fulham | 9.00 | 11.11% |
| Wolverhampton | 8.00 | 12.50% |
| Everton | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Bournemouth | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Burnley | 1.73 | 57.9% |
| Luton | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| Sheffield United | 1.17 | 85.7% |
PL Relegation Odds via bet365 as at 00:00, September 30th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Burnley Relegation Odds: Is it time to oppose the Clarets?
There was a sense of optimism in Burnley at the end of last season. That wasn’t solely because of the dominant display in the Championship. No, there was a portion of emotion shelved specifically for those who got on board with the thought process of Burnley returning to the top flight and playing a similar brand of football under Vincent Kompany – one that was front-footed, inventive, and ultimately, successful.
Well, this unforgiving division is one that chews up the most promising managers and players and spits them out without a second glance. Burnley arrived in August, and it has been anything but plain sailing. Those that have come into the club have struggled to leave their mark on the pitch, whilst Kompany and his backroom staff are currently failing in terms of getting a response from their players and the consequent results that are so desperately needed in that part of England.
Heading into the festive period with roughly 4.0xG fewer than Luton Town, below them in the table is the last place Kompany will have wanted to be at this stage of the season. The goal-laden Championship campaign is a mere afterthought now, with their second-lowest Premier League xG total accompanied by an xGA sum which pits them in 16th. The two combined, with their one win after reaching double figures in terms of matches played, make this grim reading for anyone of a Claret persuasion.
Can they turn things around? Stranger things have happened. However, the Premier League relegation odds dwindle each week when a positive result fails to rear its head. Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, projects Burnley to earn 29.6 points this season. By BETSiE’s calculations, and with Burnley attributed a 64% chance of relegation, it would mean the Clarets go down in the final relegation spot.
Luton Town Relegation Odds: The Second Favourites
It took six Premier League games for Luton Town to get their first victory on the board – seven days after they seized a first point against ten-man Wolves. Rob Edwards’ side was up and running following their trip to Goodison Park, which, in all honesty, not many people saw them coming away with something. The fixture came at a time when The Toffees’ form had picked up, and those injured were returning, so for Rob Edwards’ side to snatch all three points certainly goes some way to fostering a sense of hope in that part of the country.
Rewinding back to the summer, Luton Town presented as 1.36 favourites in the PL relegation odds betting. And it’s no wonder. This is a Hatters side that punched above their weight in the Championship – a second-tier squad with a talented Championship manager recently cast off by one of their rivals for not being up to the job. In short and on the face of things, they had no chance in the bookmakers’ eyes, with many firms offering prices on Luton to ‘outperform’ that feeble Derby squad, which managed the lowest-ever Premier League points tally.
They went about their business in the summer recruiting the likes of Thomas Kaminski (Blackburn), Jacob Brown (Stoke), Tahith Chong (Birmingham), Mads Andersen (Barnsley) and Chiedozie Ogbene (Rotherham). Luton were assembling a Championship squad to be capable of flexing their muscles in the division they had just clamoured out of. Were they building a team equipped to bounce straight back up to the Premier League in 2025/26?
After clinching their first win of the season against Everton, the Hatters occupied a position (17th) in the table ever so slightly away from the relegation places. Have they acquired a taste for the finer things? We shall see – the bookmakers suggest they haven’t got any chance, but at least now they’re viewed to outperform the Blades after 38 games. At the end of September, it was still Luton who were labelled the most likely team for the drop in the Premie League relegation odds. But this is a funny old game.
Sheffield United Relegation Odds: The Blades Not So Sharp
Sheffield United’s worst defeat in 134 years at the hands of Newcastle has gone a long way to confirming what most of us knew as soon as Premier League football was locked in last campaign. They are going to struggle.
The 0-8 mauling on their home patch in front of their own support suggests things could get worse than many feared. It’s a loss that briefly moved them into being the favourites for the drop in the PL relegation odds betting, coming in the same week where Luton picked up three points away from home.
Although Cameron Archer came through the door nearer the end of the transfer window, it would always be an uphill task. This is a club which allowed Iliman Ndiaye and Sander Berge to vacate Sheffield so close to the deadline – their two most significant players. With them, they possessed a much better chance of remaining a top-flight club, albeit still a slim one.
Without them, it’s a squad that looks light on bodies and on Premier League quality. How many of the current Sheffield United cohort would make it into the starting lineup for another Premier League team? Right now, maybe only Gustavo Hamer, Cameron Archer, and Anel Ahmedhodžić.
Start of Season favourites in the Premier League Relegation Odds Betting?
We’ve detailed the promoted pair that took the unwanted crown in the Premier League relegation odds rankings before a ball was kicked in anger in the summer. But which teams were involved in the not-so-plucky cohort to grab 18th place and end their marathon of a season in despair for the world to see?
Let’s have a look at how bet365 viewed the 2023/24 ante-post Premier League relegation odds landscape in August:
| Team | Ante-Post PL Relegation Odds |
|---|---|
| Man City | 1001.00 |
| Arsenal | 751.00 |
| Man Utd | 501.00 |
| Liverpool | 501.00 |
| Chelsea | 501.00 |
| Newcastle | 501.00 |
| Tottenham | 101.00 |
| Aston Villa | 81.00 |
| Brighton | 67.00 |
| Brentford | 11.00 |
| West Ham | 10.00 |
| Crystal Palace | 9.00 |
| Burnley | 5.50 |
| Fulham | 4.50 |
| Everton | 4.00 |
| Bournemouth | 3.75 |
| Wolverhampton | 3.75 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3.50 |
| Sheffield Utd | 1.67 |
| Luton | 1.36 |
PL Relegation Odds via bet365 were pulled from the bookmaker’s website August 10th, 2023. Odds now differ.
There was nothing between Nottingham Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth and Everton for that last relegation spot. With Everton already falling short at home against Luton Town, could they be dragged into the Championship? Sean Dyche has more than enough in his squad to avoid the drop. Beto and Calvert-Lewin are fit and available and vying for a Premier League start alongside each other. If the Toffees can keep those two healthy for the duration of the season, there are goals and chance-creation in equal measure in that striking duo.
Elsewhere, Forest fans will be hopeful that shipping Brennan Johnson off to Spurs for a pretty penny and recruiting Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, and Ibrahim Sangare for a similar fee prevails. With a top-flight season under his belt, I’d say the smart money is on Forest to avoid the drop. They may not kick on, but they should have more about them than three other teams, considering their penchant for an impressive home performance.
Wolves’ most significant problem is scoring goals. That’s clear to see. However, Pedro Neto edged towards the form that saw plenty of admirers amongst the bigger European clubs. Unfortunately for him, an injury scuppered any chance of a move, and it looks like injury may derail this season, too. Regardless, it’s clear that Gary O’Neil has the tools to fire Wolves to safety in 2023/24.
The Cherries have a superb manager under Adoni Iraola, formerly of Rayo Vallecano fame. It will take some time to get the squad singing off the same hymn sheet, though a bottom-three finish feels a touch below what is expected if the Spaniard can get his team and their high-intensity press ticking how it should.
It is all rather fascinating down there, isn’t it?
Newly-promoted teams analysis: Ante-post PL Relegation Odds Betting landscape in recent seasons
It’s not easy remaining as a Premier League club awash with obscene financial clout and plucky underdogs from the below division coming up and taking a swipe at any institution seen faltering. Leicester City, Leeds United and Southampton, three clubs edging towards the realms of established Premier League outfits – one a recent former PL champion, will tell you as much. Now, all fighting it out in a 46-game Championship season, it goes to show how the drop from England’s leading league doesn’t discriminate.
The data below outlines how often those who come up go straight back down. And if not in the first season when the club is on a high, they’re often found out and dangle perilously over a cliff face in the second. See for yourself, below outlines the number of teams which have come up and then flirted too closely with the bottom three relegations spots in the following two campaigns:
| Season Promoted | Season One | Season Two |
|---|---|---|
| 2010/11 | 0 | 1 |
| 2011/12 | 1 | 0 |
| 2012/13 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013/14 | 2 | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 1 | 0 |
| 2015/16 | 2 | 0 |
| 2016/17 | 0 | 1 |
| 2018/19 | 1 | 1 |
| 2019/20 | 2 | 0 |
| 2020/21 | 2 | 0 |
| 2021/22 | 0 | N/A |
Of course, there will always be outliers. Just look at how Brighton and Brentford secured promotion and have never once looked back. Both clubs feel like established Premier League clubs now. And for The Seagulls, well, their European status says it all. Their fans travelling to Amsterdam, Marseille and Athens in their first-ever European campaign suggest the undesired allure of the Championship won’t come calling for a while yet – if ever, under Tony Bloom’s stewardship.
It’s the same for the Bees. Matthew Benham, their forward-thinking owner, shares similarities with Bloom, the gambling world where they made their fortunes, and the data behind their club’s success.
Shrewd decisions in a transfer market so bloated for Premier League clubs, astute acquisitions in the dugout, and a sustainable long-term plan can be attributed to the success of the two in question. Yet, for those who don’t have that, who get to the land of the Premier League without doing their due diligence, it will end in disaster. And you’ll end up front and centre in one of these Premier League relegation odds betting articles – what a grim thought.
Frequently Asked Questions: PL Relegation Odds
What is relegation in football?
What is relegation in football? That may seem like a pretty straightforward question for most, especially if you find yourself somewhere in Europe. But for our friends across the pond in America, it’s not so familiar there.
Put simply, a football team is relegated if, come the end of the season, they occupy one of the three Premier League relegation spots (18th, 19th, or 20th). The amount of points a team collects determines if you end up in the bottom three, following the points-awarding process, which is three points for a win, one point for a draw, and zero points if a team loses a game.
How many points do you need to avoid relegation in football?
So, how many points do you need to avoid relegation in football? Again, it’s a good question but not an easy one. There’s not one golden number which all clubs down there are striving towards. Their manager may aim for the ‘40-point mark’, which they believe may welcome them to safety.
For example, in the last ten years in the Premier League (earliest first), it would have taken the following points haul to remain in the top flight: 35, 36, 29, 35, 35, 35, 35, 38, 36, and 34.
SAFER GAMBLING
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