Brest vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction - Champions League
Xabi Alonso’s Bundesliga outfit rocks up to France during the week as Sam Ingram oversees a Brest vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. Can Brest’s startling run to their first ever Champions League campaign continue on Matchday 3? The jury is out, as 1.45 favourites, Bayer Leverkusen, also eye three wins from three.
Brest vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction 1: Visitors a real handful
Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, October 23rd, 17:45 (UK)
At 4-0 in Brest’s previous outing away from home, I wouldn’t say that they got lucky. That can’t really apply to a team that won 4-0 – not really. But, Salzburg scored an opener nine minutes in from a corner which was ruled out. That looked a bit suspect. Then it was all Salzburg all the way up to Brest’s first goal which was a breakaway goal taken really well by Sima for Brest.
Brest grew back into the game slightly, and then the home side took control again for twenty minutes before Brest scored another against the run of play. That was the sucker punch for Salzburg because two more goals then came in quick succession: 66th, 70th and 75th-minute goals.
So Brest played a blinder in that respect. But I felt a little bit sorry for Salzburg as they weren’t completely outplayed as that kind of scoreline usually suggests. Brest did win the xG battle 2.02 to 1.62 – the underlying data telling a bit of a different story there, much closer than how it ended up at 4-0.
Rub of the green to fall short
Now, welcoming Leverkusen to town, they might not get that rub of the green. Leverkusen likely takes the chances afforded to Salzburg. They take that stranglehold on the game in 15-20-minute periods of domination, and they really make it count. Above all, we should trust Xabi Alonso to devise a game plan to get past a side like Brest – he’d have had the international break with this fixture and Frankfurt on his mind for a fortnight.
Both Brest and Frankfurt pose a similar test. Frankfurt will look to absorb pressure and hit Leverkusen on the counter with Ekitike and Marmoush – they’ve been devastating this season. Brest will do similar, like they did against Salzburg.
Brest’s start in this competition – 2-1 and 4-0 wins – there will be belief in camp that they might be able to bloody the nose. Thoroughly deserved to beat Sturm Graz. They’re tricky opponents in Ligue 1, finding the net against PSG in each of the last five meetings, which is the biggest litmus test there is in France. They scored 9 of 10 against Marseille and 9 in 10 against Lyon.
Leverkusen haven’t kept a clean sheet in six Bundesliga matches this season. The 12 goals conceded is the most of any team in the top flight in Germany. They look suspect defensively. Two goals and 1.65xG conceded to Holstein Keil on the weekend – if you’re not a fan of the Bundesliga and have never heard of them, then that tells you all you need to know – newly promoted and without a win in six, they should be right down there this season.
The Germans looked impressive in attack, just like last season. But there’s an evident vulnerability at the other end. The overlapping runs of Grimaldo on the left and Frimpong on the right – the two wing backs in a 3-4-3, presents a numerical advantage in the final third and they use that to their advantage by getting bodies in the box.
No Wirtz, No Problem?
Florian Wirtz might miss out here. He’s injured. He might be back just in time. Regardless, Martin Terrier is a fine replacement. He’ll work with Victor Boniface up top, who is a physical specimen – loves to chuck himself about, and that itself unsettles defenders. If Wirtz is missing, his role becomes more important, and Leverkusen will rely on his hold-up play and movement more so than usual.
We should see Alonso instruct his side to press high and aggressively, recovering the ball in Brest’s half and working in that chaos with quick transitions and quick thinking. That’s where they are so effective, and that shouldn’t change here.
If the hosts can work through that press once or twice, Brest can contribute just like every Bundesliga side they’ve faced this season, then that Over 3.0 Goal Line looks reachable. And if they can’t contribute, maybe Leverkusen can do all the heavy lifting. Avoid Xabi Alonso’s side at 1.48 on its own – tagged onto a win and Over 2.5 at Evens; maybe that’s an option. The Asian Goal Line might be a touch safer in case this thing turns into a 2-2 or Brest does something memorable on Wednesday night.
- Brest vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction 1: Over 3.0 Asian Goal Line (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.01
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Brest vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:10, October 21th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Match OPTA Stats: The cleanest of sheets
- Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three matches in the UEFA Champions League. If they record a shutout against Brest here, it’ll be their longest ever run of clean sheets in the competition (4).
- Only three sides have a lower PPDA in the UEFA Champions League this season than Brest (8.6), while only four sides have created more big chances than the French side’s eight.
- The longest passing sequence by a team in the opening two matchdays of this season’s UEFA Champions League came in Bayer Leverkusen’s last game (versus Milan). At 1-0 up in the second half, Xabi Alonso’s side put together a sequence of 49 uninterrupted passes, which involved all 11 players and lasted for over two minutes (134 seconds).
- Both of Abdallah Sima’s goals for Brest in the UEFA Champions League this season have been assisted by Ludovic Ajorque, while across the first two matchdays, they were the only teammate duo to combine for multiple goals in the competition this term (both Ajorque assists for Sima).
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