Ilia Simakin to win
Simakin might have an edge over Uchiyama in today's outdoor match due to recent form. Uchiyama's performance has been less consistent with a 43% win rate in his last 20 matches, while Simakin's specific stats aren't detailed but his upcoming match suggests he's in competitive shape. Uchiyama's poor breakpoint conversion at 15% could be a deciding factor against him.