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Horse Racing Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Rolex Shanghai Masters Expert Tip: Can Zhang Back Up Dominant Open Round Win?
Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Rolex Shanghai Masters): Friday, October 6th
A nice comeback win from Diego Schwartzman, who trailed by a set and a break and then again in the third set by a break before storming back for the win.
Friday brings us to the second round at the Rolex Shanghai Masters, as 14 matches take the court at one of the last ATP Masters events of the season. Let’s take a look at Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
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In this article:
- Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Expert Tip
- Zhizhen Zhang Recent Form
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry Recent Form
- Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry H2H Stat of the Match
- Gamble Responsibly
Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Expert Tip
It’s pretty shocking to see Zhang to be a cheaper favourite to back in this match than in his last one against the veteran Richard Gasquet, who is more proven on hard courts at this level and I thought actually matched up decently.
Now, that is not to say that Zhang will win in dominant fashion like that again, especially considering Gasquet’s movement looked hampered from the start, but it is to say that he’s gone from getting a lot of respect in the markets to getting very little against a relatively new player to quick conditions and courts.
Etcheverry has weapons and can certainly back up his serve, but timing wise and comfort wise, he’s certainly at a big disadvantage here. Throw in the narrative-based home crowd (which can be tough, since the home crowds have been cheering everything down to missed serves against their home players this week) and I think there is certainly value to be had in this price.
Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on October 6th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Read on for more expert insights.
Zhizhen Zhang Recent Form
When it comes to Zhang, form can be a huge indicator for his success. This is simply because he plays such a low margin for error game and his timing and feel is so crucial, that when things aren’t clicking it can be disastrous. Conversely, when things are clicking, watch out.
It’s been the latter of late for him, as being back on quicker courts that reward his aggressive, powerful game and limit the length or rallies – thus the chance for unforced errors – has served him well.
After reaching the third round at the U.S. Open, Zhang headed back to Asia, where he won the gold medal for China at the Asian games. He extended that win streak in the opening round, losing just three games against Richard Gasquet.
There’s no reason to stop believing in him with the way he’s been playing and how well his game is suited to the conditions on offer.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry Recent Form
I don’t think anyone that believes Etcheverry is improving on hard courts would be too far off base, but to believe that he’s at the level where he’s ready to compete seriously against tour-level pros on a consistent basis might be a bit of a reach.
While he did find a win against Otto Virtanen (though he did not cover the handicap), he lost to an ageing Stanislas Wawrinka at the U.S. Open. He followed that up with a win against a borderline ITF player and doubles guy in Luke Saville and then underpowered clay court young gun in Zhuhai before being trounced by Sebastian Korda and in Beijing he snuck past a still-improving Lloyd Harris and couldn’t finish off Casper Ruud, who has been far from good on hard courts in 2023.
The serve will certainly play. As will the forehand. That doesn’t necessarily make Etcheverry ready to win matches like this all that often though, and I’m happy to oppose him in this spot where I think he’s pretty overvalued.
Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry H2H – Stat of the Match
With both of these guys having played on the Challenger Tour for the last few years and both emerging onto the main tour in 2023, I’m relatively surprised that we haven’t seen them play before – especially since Zhang is no stranger to playing on clay.
Statistically, if we control for tour-level matches played on hard courts this season, we find that Zhang has the lead by a few percentage points in the hold plus break percentage department.
Not just that, but the most eye-catching number is Etcheverry’s relatively low break rate. That doesn’t surprise me all that much, considering the theme of the article has been that he can serve and hit well when he has time behind his serve, but in quicker conditions, dealing with pace coming at him can be a difficult adjustment.
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