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Horse Racing Wimbledon 2023: Women’s Futures Best Bet
Wimbledon Women’s Futures Best Bet: Friday, June 30th
The third and penultimate grand slam tournament of the season is upon us, as the All England Club is set to host the most prestigious event in tennis. Even the most casual and non-tennis fans of sport are likely to tune in at some point in the next few weeks.
Let’s dig into the singles draw for the Ladies event and see where the value lies.
In this article:
Top Half of the Draw
The top half of the draw features the world No. 1 in Iga Swiatek. While always a contender to win with her strong baseline play and underrated serve, this is easily the surface she’s most vulnerable on. Typically we look for a power player with a strong serve that can take away her ability to prolong points and get into baseline battles.
That player isn’t really present in her quarter. Belinda Bencic is a name that stands out as someone who could hurt her in the first quarter, but we haven’t seen the Swiss in quite some time, so there are questions regarding just how deep she’ll be able to go.
The second quarter is a little more open, with a few names that could certainly make an impression in the coming weeks.
Liudmilla Samsonova has a massive serve-and-forehand combination. The Russian has won Berlin in the past and will enter main draw action off a nice week in Bad Homburg as well. She finds Qinwen Zheng in her section, who has similar tools as Samsonova, but is probably more well-rounded and is a better mover to boot.
The fourth seed in American Jessica Pegula warrants a mention, but she can be overwhelmed on grass and is in pretty poor form heading into Wimbledon, having lost early in Rome, in the third round in Madrid and then in the quarters at her lone tuneup event for Wimbledon. You can’t count her out, but recent weeks haven’t inspired much confidence in her chances.
Finally, two more names to watch? Donna Vekic and Caroline Garcia. The former has performed decently this season and recently made the final in Berlin. The problem is, from a betting perspective, her odds have shortened from 100/1 a few months ago to 25/1 at the moment.
As for Garcia, her serve and forehand, along with her ability at net and decent movement for her height are all incredible strengths, but her return positioning is about as illogical as you’ll see on tour and she stubbornly refuses to change things up. For that reason, I’ve removed her from my list of contenders.
Bottom Half of the Draw
The bottom half is where things get fun. Last year’s final between Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur? That’s a potential quarterfinal this go around. I’m actually down on both their chances at the moment though. Rybakina is just far too overvalued in the betting markets to bet at this point. She wins far too many close matches for my liking against good players to take in an outright capacity. The Tunisian, on the other hand, has really struggled to string wins together since being injured earlier in the year.
My names to watch in the third quarter? Beatriz Haddad Maia and Jelena Ostapenko. The big-serving Brazilian is strong across surfaces and her well-rounded game has given top players fits in the past. Should she come up against Rybakina, she can stick with her on serve and is more well-rounded for my money. Ostapenko has a great career record on the grass and was incredible throughout the short 2023 grass season.
The primary concern for both is that they retired from their matches this week. It is the week before a grand slam, so grain of salt and all that, but if they’re hurt that could be an issue.
Wimbledon Futures Best Bets
As is usually the case for me with the women’s draw at a major event, I’m going to look at some longer prices for my bets.
The gap between the top of the women’s game and the second and third tiers is just so much smaller, and yet the names like Swiatek, Sabalenka and Rybakina are still priced as massive favourites.
That means other players that are strong on quick courts and have powerful games to find cheap points are going to be showing some value.
For me, the names to target are Keys, Zheng and Haddad Maia.
The American enters with form, has had success in Australia on the other grand slam played in quicker conditions and has the big power game for success. Zheng has been thoroughly disappointing this year, but let’s be real, the market just keeps posting prices that entice, considering she’s got the game to break out at any given moment and at any given event. Finally, Haddad Maia’s game works on all surfaces. Power, consistency, the lefty game, a big serve and decent movement. Was her retirement this past week a concern? Sure. At 61.00 odds, however, I’m willing to take the gamble. She has titles, deep runs and a win over Swiatek all in the last year or so.
I will say, the markets aren’t yet available, but playing all these women to win their quarters is also a decent proposition.
- Selection: Keys to win Wimbledon
- Best Odds: 51.00 (Bet365)
- Stake: 1/10
- Bonus: Haddad Maia to win Wimbledon at 61.00 with Unibet, using 0.5/10 stakes
- Bonus: Zheng to win Wimbledon at 91.00 with Unibet, using 0.5/10 stakes
Odds as at 2:00 pm on June 30th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
