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Horse Racing Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Paris, Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur
Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Best Bet: Wednesday, November 2nd
How about that performance from Jack Draper? As expected, his edge in athleticism and versatility, combined with his improved abilities on return saw him dominate against Arthur Rinderknech to move on. He converted two of his seven break points and didn’t face a single one until his final service game of the match when his first serve abandoned him.
Onto Wednesday, as we look to keep a nice week handicapping the Paris Masters going. We’ll look at the match between Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur to figure out where the value lies.
In this article:
Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Preview
November 2nd, 11:30 UK Time
Coming off a title in Vienna a week ago, the early stages of the draw in Paris look pretty favourable for Medvedev. First, he was able to enjoy a first-round bye as one of the higher-seeded players, giving him a few days off before his first match coming off a long week.
Now, he plays Alex de Minaur, who he should match up against extremely well – especially considering the fact that the match will be played on centre court, which is playing slower than the two outer courts.
A few key reasons I believe Medvedev should be able to win this one in convincing fashion.
For starters, while he typically enjoys quicker conditions himself, de Minaur also struggles a bit more on slower courts, and the dropoff in his game is more significant. Without a big serve or weapon from the baseline, it all comes down to his hustle and defensive abilities. That doesn’t bode well against someone like Medvedev, who himself is an absolute wall and can play those longer exchanges without too many problems.
Then there’s the fact that Medvedev himself has a massive first serve that allows him to find his fair share of cheap points via aces, unreturned serves or serves returned into the service box that are relatively easy to put away.
In terms of form, Medvedev has re-established himself as an elite hard courter, winning Vienna last week (and absolutely dominating players along the way), while he made the semifinals in Astana, where he split the first two sets with Novak Djokovic before retiring.
Finally, the player profile of a baseline grinder? Has not fared well against the Russian of late. He absolutely rocked Roberto Bautista Agut in recent weeks, and if you aren’t going to come to net effectively and take time away from him, you’re going to be in trouble. De Minaur is someone far more comfortable trying to beat you from the baseline. The problem? He doesn’t have the weapons of Medvedev, and the consistency and defensive abilities are a wash.
Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Best Bet
With de Minaur struggling to find cheap points behind his serve in the best of times and this match being played in slower conditions against a strong returner and elite baseliner, de Minaur is likely to be vulnerable consistently on serve.
That is going to force him to find plenty of opportunities on return in his own right, something that is easier said than done against the big first serve of the tall Medvedev.
One other factor to consider? De Minaur played well into the night on Monday in Paris against Sebastian Korda. He had Tuesday off, but with a match finishing in the wee hours and then a recovery process and transport back to the hotel, who knows what time he was able to settle and go to sleep. That lengthy matchup late at night from the first round could very well come into play here, as well.
Higher game handicaps can be nerve-wracking on the ATP Tour, but I’m more than happy to back Medvedev in this spot, in a matchup that favours him in a big way.
- Selection: Medvedev -4.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.83 (Bet365)
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds as at 12:15 am on November 2nd, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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