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Horse Racing Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP French Open, Casper Ruud vs Holger Rune
Casper Ruud vs Holger Rune Best Bet: Wednesday, June 7th
Nice stuff from Karen Khachanov, who was incredible and used his big groundstrokes to win the opening set and use that lead and a second-set tiebreak to ensure that the handicap got across the line.
Wednesday features the final matches from the quarterfinal round, and it’s the night match I want to focus on as Casper Ruud and Holger Rune renew their rivalry for the second time in the last month.
In this article:
Casper Ruud vs Holger Rune Preview
June 7th, 19:15 (UK Time)
This was a one-sided rivalry before their meeting in Rome a few weeks ago.
Even that one looked as if it was going to go Ruud’s way before Rune mustered a much higher level and came back from a set and break down to earn the win.
While the previous four meetings could be explained by Rune’s relative youth and lack of a serve for a while, that near loss in Rome was a bit more confounding.
Rune, by my estimation, has the better overall game. I like his serve just as much, his forehand doesn’t have the incredible spin rate of Ruud’s, but it isn’t weak and he can hit it with pop, and his backhand is by far and away the better of the two. In terms of other parts of his game, I do believe he moves around the court better and he does more in terms of mixing in drop shots relative to Ruud who is more content in baseline exchanges.
The key here is how the Dane looked at the end of his last match. Playing Francisco Cerundolo, Rune looked to be in trouble in the deciding fifth set on the scoreboard and on the court where he was hunched over and looked to be cracking physically. He came away with the win in a super tiebreak, but the fatigue concerns are running rampant in the betting markets, where he’s been bet from the slightest of favourites to clear underdog. I think there are a few ways to approach this match from a betting perspective, so let’s get into those below.
Casper Ruud vs Holger Rune Best Bet
I think I alluded to the fact that I don’t agree with Rune being the underdog in this matchup, despite the potential physical concerns.
Should that impact that price? Sure. Does that take him from being a favourite to an underdog for me? Absolutely not. Especially with a day off between matches, a strong recovery process and the fact that he’s still a kid. Yet, I do think this is a close enough match to believe it could go long. That makes me partial to backing him to win over 19.5 games. Should this go four or five sets, we aren’t worried about him fading physically, and if he loses in straight sets, neither his moneyline nor games over bets would win. This gives us the chance to back him to keep things close, potentially win in four or five sets and even cash should he lose in four sets. The only way this doesn’t come in is if he wins in a straightforward fashion.
Another angle I like here is to take the over 8.5 breaks prop. There are a few reasons I like this one. For starters, I’m not sure this one is done in straight sets. If one believes a match is ending in straights, there is obviously much less value in this prop. After all, more sets (generally) means more games. That means more chances for breaks to occur and more importantly, you need a lower break percentage in the match to cash your bet. With this one likely to go at least four sets, it looks to be a decent option.
Secondly, these are data-heavy markets. First serve win percentage on the surface, second serve win percentage and then hold and break percentages on clay are what drive these numbers. With Ruud and Rune both possessing pretty strong service numbers on clay this season, I believe this number is depressed. They’ve both looked somewhat vulnerable on serve at this event, and the data also doesn’t take into account the fact that Rune won a title at altitude in Munich and then played a few more matches at altitude in Madrid, nor that Ruud played a few strong matches on serve in the altitude in Geneva.
That’s an important context to consider, and I’m happy to take the over 8.5 breaks prop here as well.
- Selection: Rune to win over 19.5 games
- Best Odds: 1.96 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 2/10
- Bonus: Over 8.5 breaks combined in the match at 1.88 with Unibet, using 2/10 stakes.
Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on June 7th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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