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Horse Racing Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Florence, Mikael Ymer vs Aslan Karatsev
Mikael Ymer vs Aslan Karatsev Best Bet: Wednesday, October 12th
Lovely comeback victory from Gabriel Diallo’s, who’s level for a set and a half was underwhelming, to say the least. Once he found his groove, however, the well-rounded game we had expected to see took over and we ended up with a nice big-stakes winner.
We’re back to the ATP Tour on Wednesday for our best bet, as we’ll take a look at the match between Mikael Ymer and Aslan Karatsev.
The Russian looks to reach his first quarterfinal and win just his third match since late July, while Ymer looks for his fourth win of the event already, having come through qualies. Let’s delve into it.
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Mikael Ymer vs Aslan Karatsev Preview
October 12th, 12:00 UK Time
Great opportunity here to oppose one of the players struggling the most at the moment on the ATP Tour, as Karatsev has won just two matches since a run to the quarterfinals of Hamburg in late July.
The wins came against Brandon Nakashima in Cincinnati (admittedly a pretty stunning result all things considered) and in the first round here in Florence against Tallon Griekspoor, who is mired in a run of terrible form himself. It was also a win via retirement, which means one can’t even be certain that the Dutchman was fit for that match.
That standalone-win does not make me think that the Russian has turned a corner, and I’m more than happy to back Ymer in this spot, coming off a dominant win over a strong server in Tim van Rijthoven.
Not only is Ymer in better form than Karatsev at the moment (that comes almost by default at this point), but he matches up really well to boot.
The power-focused Russian is also incredibly error-prone, and I can’t think of too many players more well-positioned to exploit that weakness by extending rallies and playing steady tennis from the baseline than the Swede.
Now with three matches under his belt in Florence, Ymer is certainly acclimated well to these courts, and with the exception of one match between Francesco Passaro and Zhizhen Zhang, this tournament has also seen plenty of breaks of serve. That, too, favours the defensively-minded Ymer, who should be able to create plenty of opportunities.
Mikael Ymer vs Aslan Karatsev Best Bet
When it comes down to it, the fact that Karatsev is 2-8 in his last 10 matches overall, with one of those wins coming via retirement and against someone else completely devoid of form, I can’t justify Ymer’s price being over 1.50 in this spot.
At that price point, he’d need to win two of every three meetings to break even and that seems more than reasonable between Karatsev’s form and his matchup advantages.
With the price over 1.60, I’m more than happy to get involved and back the Swede, even if he can disappear within matches from time to time.
- Selection: Ymer -2.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.89 (Coolbet)
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds as at 11:15 pm on October 11th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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