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Boxing Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Nottingham, Viktorija Golubic vs Heather Watson
Viktorija Golubic vs Heather Watson Best Bet: Friday, June 16th
Poor display Thursday from Caty McNally, who went from being in total control in the first set, to losing the second due to error-prone play and then blowing a 3-0 lead in the deciding sets.
For Friday, we’ll pop over to the event in Nottingham, England and take a look at the match between Viktorija Golubic and Heather Watson.
In this article:
Viktorija Golubic vs Heather Watson Preview
June 16th, 14:00 (UK Time)
It’s amazing what a pair of decent victories can do for the market’s confidence in a player. Watson has been rather poor on the whole for quite some time now. In fact, the former top-40 player is just barely inside the top-200 at the moment (though she’ll climb more in next week’s rankings with this quarterfinal appearance).
She’s been toiling on the ITF Tour at 31 years old, without many signature wins or the game to inspire confidence in a return to the top-50 or top-75. The errors come too frequently and she doesn’t have the requisite weapons to end points quickly on her own terms. Her qualifying wins this week were nothing to write home about, and beating Jule Niemeier (who hasn’t been in good form this year either) and Tatjana Maria are impressive wins, but don’t change the fact that she should still be considered a major underdog.
The advantage she has over many is her comfort on grass courts, being a Brit, she’s had the chance to play on grass far more often than most. That advantage simply isn’t present against someone like Golubic.
As I wrote about for Tuesday’s preview, Golubic’s game is perfectly suited to the grass. She can flatten out her shots to take time away from opponents, she takes the ball early and when she’s up against a player with a power game, she’s able to time up her shots and redirect the pace with aplomb. Her touch and feel, as well as point construction also serve her well in prolonged rallies.
While on Tuesday, it was the surface that gave her the advantage over a player that had a similar amount of talent, this time, with both players equally comfortable on grass, her advantage is in the fact that she’s a much better player on the whole at this point than Watson.
Viktorija Golubic vs Heather Watson Best Bet
I would have actually passed at the original price that Pinnacle had listed. They opened with Golubic to win priced up at 1.53, or with an expected win percentage of 65%. The market has moved this all the way to 1.69 though, which is a move of just over 6% and enough for me to get involved.
I’ll back the Swiss here, with no scheduling concerns to be had. If Golubic were playing qualifying on Saturday for one of the bigger 500-level events in either Birmingham or Berlin, I would understand at least some of the movement. That isn’t the case though, as she’s listed as playing the high-level ITF event in Ilkley – just a two hour drive from Nottingham. Not to mention, no one is bowing out of a 250 event to conserve energy for one that offers fewer points and prize money.
- Selection: Golubic to win
- Best Odds: 1.70 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 5/10
Odds as at 3:30 am UK Time on June 16th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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