Valentin Vacherot vs Alafia Ayeni Challenger Dove Men+Care Temuco Expert Tip: American Too Long in Betting Markets

Valentin Vacherot vs Alafia Ayeni (Challenger Dove Men+Care Temuco): Friday, December 1st

Absolutely lovely stuff from Nuno Borges, who was far too much for Enrico Dalla Valle to handle.

Our final ATP Challenger Tour preview of the week takes us back to the Challenger Dove Men+Care Temuco to preview a match between two unlikely quarterfinalists. It’s Valentin Vacherot vs Alafia Ayeni.

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In this article:

• Valentin Vacherot vs Alafia Ayeni Expert Tip
• Valentin Vacherot Recent Form
• Alafia Ayeni Recent Form
• Valentin Vacherot vs Alafia Ayeni H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Valentin Vacherot vs Alafia Ayeni Expert Tip

• Expert Tip: Ayeni to win
• Best Odds: 3.21
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 9:30 pm UK Time on November 30th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

If backing the volatile Dayana Yastremska in our women’s preview on Thursday seemed wild, this one is going to take it to a whole new level.

Ayeni is absolutely wild. He hits far too many double faults and his first serve percentage is a bit low, but there are some factors working in his favour in this matchup.

For starters, when he does manage to hit his first serve on quick courts, he wins the vast majority of those points. Second, he’s playing at a bit of altitude which should help and he’s playing a poor returner – particularly on hard courts – in Vacherot, which should also help him shore up his serve.

He’s also the more natural hard court player of the two, so to have him as a pretty big underdog in the betting markets seems like a mistake to me.

Read on for more expert insights.

Valentin Vacherot Recent Form

Vacherot is another player who doesn’t mind altitude, with a big serve of his own.

I would say that he’s more of a clay courter, however, as he’s played far more tennis on clay since the start of 2022 than he has on hard courts.

That said, his lone Challenger title did come on hard courts in Nonthaburi.

His game is heavily predicated on his serve and his ability to back it up with a strong forehand. The altitude should help him as well in that regard, but in terms of his backhand and his movement, the hard courts and quicker conditions are not his friends.

Friday marks just his fifth match on hard courts on the pro circuit since February though, and he’s beaten some unknown players and escaped disaster on Thursday against Gustavo Heide, who absolutely dominated the match until the final stages of the second set when he fell apart.

The form this week hasn’t been inspiring enough for me to buy into him being a favourite who is expected to win at the rate the market expects.

Alafia Ayeni Recent Form

Ayeni’s form hasn’t been anything to write home about either of late.

Though he’s into the quarterfinals in Temuco, he had to come back from a set down against two out-and-out clay courters (though he did cruise in the second and third sets in each of those matches).

The signature wins aren’t there for him, and the losses haven’t come to the highest-quality players either, but this matchup in particular is one he should be able to keep close.

Minimising his double faults and landing even 55% of his first serves against a poor returner in elevated conditions should garner him four or five holds each set, and if he can do that, he’s into a position where this match will come down to who plays better at the margins.

In those instances, a higher-odds underdog provides some nice value.

Valentin Vacherot vs Alafia Ayeni H2H – Stat of the Match

No previous meeting between these two. It feels like this match will come down to who can serve more effectively and minimise mistakes.

That will likely determine who sneaks through the tiebreaks, or who is able to find a break of serve.

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