Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roman Safiullin Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, February 27th

For our second preview of the day, we’ll head to the second week of the Mexican hard court swing and the Abierto Mexicano Telcel to look at one of the biggest surface speed advantages we may see this season in Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roman Safiullin.

It’s the other ATP 500 tournament of the week, and it’ll happen much later in the day, so if you want to watch both tips, you’ll be able to!

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Our Tsitsipas vs Safiullin prediction is for Tsitsipas to cover the -3 game handicap.

In this article:

• Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roman Safiullin Prediction
• Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form
• Roman Safiullin Recent Form
• Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roman Safiullin H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roman Safiullin Prediction: Slow Courts are a Huge Advantage for World No. 12

• Prediction: Tsitsipas -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 5:15 am UK Time on February 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m not sure why the market hasn’t moved this to a clear -3.5 game handicap, but I’ll take the void insurance at a price that isn’t all that expensive relative to the most standard 1.91 handicaps.

If there are two players who prefer polar opposite court speeds on hard courts, Tsitsipas and Safiullin are the two. Safiullin prefers the lower-bouncing quick courts that reward his incredibly aggressive style. He’s not big into point construction and would prefer to just hit a sequence of powerful shots to beat his opposition.

Tsitsipas is the opposite. We know his best surface is clay and his optimal strike zone is well suited to higher bouncing courts.

Luckily for the Greek No. 1, these courts – much like last week in Los Cabos – are Solflex hard courts and in qualifying, they were as slow as they were last year and they certainly had a higher bounce.

That also means he’ll have more time to deal with the bigger hitting on the other side of the net, and his superior points construction and comfort at net give him a wider variety of ways to win points.

Read on for more expert insights.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

After not having seen Tsitsipas on tour since the Australian Open (he did play Davis Cup but in a lower division), I was anxious to see how he’d look in Los Cabos.

He may have failed to defend his title from July (they moved the tournament up by a few months this season), but he looked really good for two matches and lost by a one-break of serve margin to another top-tier slow court player in Casper Ruud.

I think he looked fine before that loss and will probably expect big things from himself this week.

Tsitsipas has the raw power on serve and in his forehand to hit through slower conditions, he’s shown the willingness to approach and play effectively at the net and it’ll be much tougher to rush his one-handed backhand – his most glaring weakness – when the courts eat up pace like this.

The bounce is perfect for where he likes to strike the ball as well, making these conditions optimal for him for anything off of clay.

Roman Safiullin Recent Form

Safiullin has struggled a bit since making a nice run in Brisbane to begin his 2024 season the way he left off his career year in 2023.

He hasn’t won since that week though, having lost to Tallon Griekspoor in Melbourne, Holger Rune in Rotterdam and Dan Evans in Los Cabos. Now, the first two losses were excusable. Griekspoor was a five-setter in conditions that made that match close. Rune in three sets is also a decent result considering the Dane’s talent.

The Evans loss, however, was indicative of how much Safiullin can struggle when he can’t hit his way through his opponents. It illustrated the struggles in slower conditions perfectly.

Now he steps up to play a tougher opponent who likes slow courts even more than the guy who beat him a week ago.

I’m not at all convinced that he can keep things close.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roman Safiullin H2H – Stat of the Match

The head-to-head, along with the overall hard court data that probably has not been adjusted for court speed, is the most likely reason that we’re seeing this matchup mispriced.

Safiullin beat Tsitsipas two years ago in Marseille (back when it played much more quickly than it does now). I was actually on Safiullin in that match, which kind of tells you how important court speed is in this specific matchup.

The other two matches they played were at the ITF level and around a decade ago. Needless to say, those are totally worthless in any handicap.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.