Tennis Picks Today for January 3rd: Free Tennis Picks for Dimitrov vs Altmaier and Gauff vs Fruhvirtova

Tennis Picks Today: January 3rd

• Dimitrov vs Altamaier: Over 21 Games
• Gauff vs Fruhitova: Fruhvirtova +6.5 Games

After splitting our opening plays of the 2024 tennis season, we’re back to business on Wednesday with a pair of plays that are showing some value.

To start, we’ll look at Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniel Altmaier at the Brisbane International from the ATP side of things.

Then, we’ll move on to the WTA’s ASB Classic to preview the Coco Gauff vs Brenda Fruhvirtova match.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniel Altmaier Free Pick
• Grigor Dimitrov Recent Form
• Daniel Altmaier Recent Form
• Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniel Altmaier H2H Stat of the Match
• Coco Gauff vs Brenda Fruhvirtova Expert Tip
• Coco Gauff Recent Form
• Brenda Fruhvirtova Recent Form
• Coco Gauff vs Brenda Fruhvirtova H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniel Altmaier (Brisbane International) Free Pick: Big Serving German to Keep Match Close

• Pick: Over 21 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:30 am UK Time on January 3rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

While Dimitrov is coming off one of the best seasons of his career and Altmaier is more comfortable on clay courts than hard courts, it’s really hard not to take the big head start here on the handicap with a server like Altmaier.

Brisbane – like almost all venues in Australia in January – tends to be among the quickest surfaces on tour, and Altmaier showcased just how far a big serve can take you in his opening match.

Dimitrov hasn’t really been known for his returning prowess, and in a match of two one-handed backhands that can be liabilities on return, I can’t have this total being below the 22.5-game number.

Read on for more expert insights.

Grigor Dimitrov Recent Form

Dimitrov quietly put together one of his best seasons in 2023, and much of that was thanks to his strong runs in Beijing (quarterfinals), Shanghai (semifinals) and Paris (final).

Worth noting, however, is the fact that in those tournaments – two of which are some of the quicker conditions on tour – Dimitrov played a slew of tiebreaks and a few three-set matches for good measure.

While trends aren’t indicative of future results, it does speak to the fact that his game is very serve-oriented in its own right and that on quicker courts, he can struggle to generate much pressure on return.

His opening round against Andy Murray also saw a tight match before Murray buckled physically and he was able to run away with the third set.

I think Dimitrov should be a favourite to win the match for good reason, but the notion that he should dominate and win with ease fails to take into account the court speeds and his opponent’s strengths.

Daniel Altmaier Recent Form

Altmaier’s record on hard courts hasn’t been great in recent years as he’s played more and more ATP Tour level tournaments, but one thing worth noting is that he has kept plenty of his losses to more natural hard court players fairly close.

In 2023, he took sets off the likes of Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Alexander Zverev and Adrian Mannarino in losses. All of those players are players near the top of the game, and all those matches went over the designated total.

While they certainly did happen, lopsided sets weren’t exactly a regularity in his contests either. That speaks to his ability to keep things relatively close thanks to his strong first serve and first forehand combination.

Finally, his opening match against Li Tu saw him win in a pair of tiebreaks, with the German winning three-quarters of his first serve points and two-thirds of points behind his second delivery.

Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniel Altmaier H2H – Stat of the Match

Dimitrov has won both prior meetings between the two. The first was on a slower hard court years ago when Altmaier wasn’t nearly as strong of a player as he is now.

The second is the more concerning loss, considering it came on clay, where Altmaier should have been more competitive than he was in the third round of the French Open last summer.

Either way, his serving numbers are good enough for me to trust him in this match, nonetheless.

Coco Gauff vs Brenda Fruhvirtova ASB Classic Free Pick: Fruhvirtova to Trouble Rising American Star

• Pick: Fruhvirtova +6.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.99
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds available as of January 3rd 2024. odds may now differ. 

The two play a fairly similar game as well, which could also make this a fun contest.

For me, Fruhvirtova has impressed this week, while Gauff has tended to be a tad overvalued in her recent matches according to my numbers.

That combination means I’m looking to back the Czech prodigy on a fairly high handicap.

Read on for more expert insights.

Coco Gauff Recent Form

There is no arguing with the results that Gauff has put up in recent months. From winning a trio of titles in a four-tournament span in Washington, D.C., Cincinnati and the U.S. Open, a run to the semifinals in Beijing and the WTA year-end finals, Gauff really did take a big step forward down the stretch in 2023.

That said, the forehand is still a relative weakness, and she did look pretty poor in her losses to Jessica Pegula and Iga Swiatek later in the year.

While I still think she’s an exceptional player, I do believe that those results indicated a sort of regression to her actual level of play.

The market is now pricing her up on hard courts in the same sphere as Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka – the top two players in the world by a wide margin in my books – and that’s a bit too much.

6.5-game handicaps and prices in the 1.05 to 1.10 region against strong competition have almost exclusively been reserved for those two.

Gauff just isn’t in their realm just yet, though she may one day reach the dominant level of her peers. She is listed at 9.00 odds to win the 2024 Australian Open. 

Brenda Fruhvirtova Recent Form

The 16-year-old Czech prospect has been one of two most talked about teenagers since Gauff herself burst onto the scene a few years ago at the All England Club.

While Fruhvirtova hasn’t really made as much noise on the WTA Tour, relative to fellow prodigious talent Mirra Andreeva, she has raced up the rankings to No. 117 in the world.

Now, with much of that built on wins against lesser competition at the ITF Tour level, and coming on clay, I was still sceptical about how she’d fare in the quicker conditions in Auckland.

It’s worth keeping in mind that she did qualify for the Australian Open last year (though she did need a miraculous comeback to do so), so we have a bit of a reference point for her success in this region.

Ultimately, however, having watched her play in the first round and in one of her qualifying matches, I’ve been surprised by the improvement behind her first serve. The once defence-centric game of Fruhvirtova has added a bit more offensive firepower, adding dynamism to her game.

With a backhand that can stick with Gauff and the overvaluation since the summer on the American, I’ll gladly take her to keep this one relatively close.

Coco Gauff vs Brenda Fruhvirtova H2H – Stat of the Match

No previous meeting between these two competitors.

It is fun though that they’re both young stars, with great backhands, great athleticism and a still-improving forehand.

The question is, does this make them closer competitors than the odds would suggest, or is Gauff just better at everything and will end up cruising to victory?

With the quicker conditions on offer, I’m more inclined to believe it’ll be a tougher match than Gauff may anticipate.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.