Stan Wawrinka vs Alexander Shevchenko Swiss Indoors Basel Expert Tip: Can Young Upstart Topple Swiss Legend?

Stan Wawrinka vs Alexander Shevchenko (Swiss Indoors Basel): Tuesday, October 24th

Nice win for Botic van de Zandschulp on Monday against Roberto Bautista Agut, though he took the scenic route to get there. He generated plenty of pressure on return, but converting break points was a struggle at times.

Tuesday, we’ll stick with the Swiss Indoors Basel for our men’s preview from the ATP side of things. Let’s take a look at Stan Wawrinka vs Alexander Shevchenko.

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In this article:

• Stan Wawrinka vs Alexander Shevchenko Expert Tip
• Stan Wawrinka Recent Form
• Alexander Shevchenko Recent Form
• Stan Wawrinka vs Alexander Shevchenko H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Stan Wawrinka vs Alexander Shevchenko Expert Tip

Much like a week ago, I’m still not sold on the Swiss veteran’s return game enough to make me believe he should be a big favourite against talented players.

This time, he’s an even bigger favourite against Shevchenko than he was against Borna Gojo. That’s a bit odd to me, considering I rate Shevchenko more highly in terms of talent than the Croatian.

Now, he has nasty spells of inconsistency and seems to mentally implode on court on occasion, but there is no doubting the young gun’s talent.

He’s the more athletic player for me here, better returner and still has plenty of power behind his serve and from the baseline.

I can understand why Wawrinka is the favourite, but having Shevchenko as a 33% chance to win? I don’t think that’s right.

I have this as a large position on the Russian, but having watched plenty of tape on him, I know the volatility in his game makes that somewhat risky. So I’m going to go ahead and diversify the risk by going for both Shevchenko to win a set, as well as pull off the upset.

• Expert Tips: Shevchenko +1.5 sets at 1.70 with Unibet (available at 1.78 with Pinnacle), using 3/10 stakes.
  Shevchenko to win at 3.00 with Bet365, using 2/10 stakes.

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on October 24th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Stan Wawrinka Recent Form

As much as Wawrinka has really found his groove again in terms of his serve and hitting from the baseline when it comes to power, his return game still isn’t the most imposing, and that has resulted in a lot of close matches that have seen him pick up a few wins in Cincinnati and at the U.S. Open, but since then, he’s found himself on the losing end of some very close matches as well.

That’s the danger of playing a style that lends itself to matches decided at the margins – losses are going to happen almost as often as the wins.

After beating Gojo last week, he had an underwhelming performance against Tomas Machac. In Shanghai, he lost outright as a large favourite to Dusan Lajovic and in Astana, he lost to Marcos Giron in a match that featured zero breaks of serve.

If his opponent here was somewhat underpowered, then I could understand the gulf in their odds to win. With his own serve being strong, playing someone with less power would afford him more time for his shots and allow him to apply more pressure on return.

That’s not the case with Shevchenko and this should be a much closer match than many would expect.

Alexander Shevchenko Recent Form

Shevchenko’s form has been a bit of a head scratcher of late.

He has some strong wins against the likes of Botic van de Zandschulp and Benjamin Bonzi as a high-priced underdog, but he’s also lost from a set up on hard courts to underpowered guys that prefer clay like Juan Pablo Varillas and Chun Hsin Tseng.

Those losses also featured really strong first sets – particularly on serve – and then a complete meltdown, with Shevchenko taking his foot off the gas and playing into his opponents’ hands.

That kind of volatility on court is why I prefer to just back him as an underdog at this point. He’s shown he has the talent to pull off wins at higher odds, which means there’s certainly the potential for very profitable matches from a betting point of view, but he’s also shown the inconsistency that makes him unreliable as a favourite.

Understanding what matchups to back him in is key.

Stan Wawrinka vs Alexander Shevchenko H2H – Stat of the Match

This is another contest we haven’t seen before, so there’s no tape to look back on to see how each player approached the match and who was more tactically aware (though I would venture to say that in terms of on-court IQ and tactics, the veteran Wawrinka does have the edge).

I’m anxious to see how Wawrinka approaches this match on return, if he can do anything to take Shevchenko out of rhythm and most importantly, how the 23-year-old handles the home crowd. As someone who can be emotional on court and let that affect his game, that will be key for him.

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