Jannik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 30th

There are only a few women’s matches on Tuesday in Madrid, but the entire Round of 16 takes place on the ATP side of things.

Let’s look at Jannik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov in a match that may be more competitive than you’d expect.

Khachanov’s win probability is only 20% while Sinner is favoured to win at 1.18 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Our Sinner vs Khachanov prediction is for Khachanov to win.

In this article:

• Jannik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov Prediction
• Jannik Sinner Recent Form
• Karen Khachanov Recent Form
• Jannik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

Jannik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov (Mutua Madrid Open) Prediction: 

• Prediction: Khachanov to win
• Best Odds: 5.00
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 1/10

Odds as at 12:45 am UK Time on April 30th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

The second week of these Masters are going to be a lot tougher to find nice bets for. Not only do we get players that the oddsmakers and market know very well and have ample data on, but the news coverage around tournaments like the Mutua Madrid Open means markets adjust more quickly and to more efficient numbers.

With that said, I still think a minimal stake on Khachanov to win the match at a bookmaker that will pay out if Sinner retires anytime after the first set is complete is a decent bet at these odds.

We have to acknowledge that when he looked at his box and made it clear he was in pain in his last match against Pavel Kotov may have been a smaller issue than many are making it out to be and some work on his hip after the match, along with some pre-match work may mean that Sinner is fine Tuesday, but if his movement is limited, Khachanov has served pretty well this week and any kind of reduced movement should reduce the effectiveness of Sinner’s return game, making this a much closer match.

More previews from a big day of Round of 16 action from the Spanish capital can be found over on the expert insights page.

Jannik Sinner Recent Form

In terms of his overall form, there is no questioning that Sinner has risen to be one of the best players in the world in recent months.

He’s lost just twice in 2024. Once to Carlos Alcaraz (another phenom) and once to Stefanos Tsitsipas (in three sets on clay, where Tsitsipas is still an elite player).

The second set against Kotov, however, does have many people wondering if he’s in line for his third loss on Tuesday. He may not be taking on someone at the absolute top of the sport, but Khachanov is still a very good player and can push some of the best when his game is clicking.

This one feels as though it comes down to what exactly is going on with Sinner’s hip. That uncertainty can be intimidating when betting, but it can also serve as a great equaliser against the bookmakers and the rest of the market. With news not likely to bring much clarity barring a withdrawal (which only results in refunds of bets), I do think a small bet opposing Sinner here is worth a shot at a valuation of 20%.

Karen Khachanov Recent Form

What an opportunity for Khachanov, who probably would’ve given himself a chance under the 10% mark to win this had Sinner not been feeling it physically in Monday’s match.

I do think that potential hip problem, along with his own stellar play on Monday, means that he’ll back himself a lot more to pull off this upset. Khachanov played another young Italian in the third round in Flavio Cobolli and put in a dominant performance that saw him win nearly 90% of his first serve points and avoid facing a break point all match. That’s only a one match sample, but along with his win over Roberto Bautista Agut, I think we can safely say that his strong serve has been playing up in the altitude of Madrid.

Khachanov can also dictate play from the baseline and is pretty athletic for a fairly big guy. His toughest stretches of play this season have actually come from playing a bit too passively, rather than just from error-strewn patches.

If he can stay aggressive and look to spread the court with his power, he should be able to exploit the physical issue of his opponent and come away with a big quarterfinal appearance as a result.

Jannik Sinner vs Karen Khachanov H2H – Stat of the Match

Sinner leads Khachanov 4-1 in their previous five encounters. The only one in the last three years came at this year’s Australian Open, where Sinner won in straight sets, though Khachanov was able to keep things close for the most part in each set.

We haven’t seen Sinner dominate the Russian in the past, and the injury here isn’t likely to help. It should also be noted though that this will be the first match they contest off of a hard court.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.