Sebastian Baez vs Jurij Rodionov Astana Open Expert Tip: Baez to Use Consistent Style to Emerge Victorious

Sebastian Baez vs Jurij Rodionov (Astana Open): Friday, September 29th

Dominic Thiem may have stumbled over the line, but he managed to cash the tip on Thursday, nonetheless.

We’ll stick with the Astana Open for Friday’s ATP Tour tip and look at Sebastian Baez vs Jurij Rodionov.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Sebastian Baez vs Jurij Rodionov Expert Tip
• Sebastian Baez Recent Form
• Jurij Rodionov Recent Form
• Sebastian Baez vs Jurij Rodionov H2H
• Gamble Responsibly

Sebastian Baez vs Jurij Rodionov Expert Tip

Give me the tour-level pro here with a huge consistency advantage. The conditions may not be the worst for the Austrian, but I’m not convinced he’s in a good position in this matchup stylistically, nor does he have the experience at the ATP level.

Baez struggled mightily in hard-court matches for the longest time, but showed a bit more promise this summer and has a sneaky strong first serve.

While Rodionov can certainly pummel the ball, there’s a reason he has struggled to really break onto the main tour in recent years.

• Expert Tip: Baez to win at 1.68 with Unibet, using 2/10 stakes.
  Note: Also available at 1.72 with Pinnacle for grading purposes.

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on September 29th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Sebastian Baez Recent Form

This may be the most encouraging part of the handicap.

After years of futility on hard courts, Baez found some success this summer. Now, that success came in the 250s that featured weaker fields, but welcome to Astana, where that’s the exact situation. It’s actually a really intelligent scheduling move for Baez.

He has a bye through the first round and now takes on a Challenger Tour calibre opponent that coughs up errors on a consistent basis – exactly what someone like Baez is looking for.

His title at a comparable event like Winston Salem is certainly encouraging, as are the several wins he picked up at the U.S. Open, before falling to one of the elite hard courters in the game today in Daniil Medvedev.

I’ll take him both quality-wise and matchup-wise in this one.

Jurij Rodionov Recent Form

Rodionov has managed three wins to reach this point in Kazakhstan, but none have really been all that impressive. Beating a declining Evgeny Donskoy and barely scraping by against Rubin Statham in qualifying aren’t results to hang one’s hat on, while his first-round victory against Gregoire Barrere was by the slimmest of margins and against an opponent who has struggled mightily in recent times.

He does have a serve that should be able to take advantage of the slight altitude, but in any prolonged baseline exchanges that come about thanks to the somewhat slow courts, he’s likely at a big disadvantage.

His erratic play is also exploitable against one of the more consistent players inside the world’s top 30.

I’ve been a big fan of his game for a while, but I’m not sure he’s ready to take on a rock-solid baseliner with ATP Tour-level pedigree like Baez.

Sebastian Baez vs Jurij Rodionov H2H

With Rodionov primarily playing in Challenger Tour events and Baez already being a main tour staple in his early 20s, it shouldn’t be a surprise these two have yet to play each other.

Even without that sample, I’m happy to back Baez in this spot. As mentioned, his first serve is undervalued, his form is pretty decent and matchup-wise he’s well-positioned to exploit Rodionov’s erratic play.

SAFER GAMBLING

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