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Horse Racing Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Santiago, Sebastian Baez vs Cristian Garin
Sebastian Baez vs Cristian Garin Best Bet: Thursday, March 2nd
Well that match couldn’t have gone any better, as the first set went to a tiebreak and Lorenzo Sonego clinched that tiebreak to ensure at least one of our two bets would land. He actually managed to win outright, in straight sets, with the over getting home. Always love when a match plays out the same way the value in the betting markets is pointing.
On Thursday, we’ll break down the matchup between
In this article:
Sebastian Baez vs Cristian Garin Preview
March 2nd, Time TBD (UK Time)
Well, at South American events, I do believe that home-court advantage can provide a boost to certain players and should be considered when evaluating prices in the betting markets.
To see Garin get this kind of boost, however, is a little much. The Chilean has won a grand total of four tour-level matches since Wimbledon in July. it’s even worse contextually. His only two wins at tour-level this season came against a completely out-of-form Pedro Martinez and a Dominic Thiem who is still struggling to find his former top level since coming back from injury.
Now he takes on a Sebastian Baez who – back on clay – already has a title to his name this Golden Swing (he had a few clay-court titles at this level last season as well).
Garin has a decent game, but looks more underpowered than ever, and against a returner like Baez, even a few hundred metres of altitude likely isn’t enough to find a high number of free or cheap points behind his first serve.
Now 6-2 on the season on the dirt, Baez has only lost to Dusan Lajoivc (playing decently, and that was Baez’s first singles match off a long, gruelling week in Cordoba. He also led by a set and break in that one) and Nicolas Jarry, who has big weapons and made the semifinals – nearly beating Carlos Alcaraz – at the 500 in Rio de Janeiro.
Not to mention, he’s rock solid from the baseline, has an undervalued first serve and he can really dictate with his forehand. The latter two should also play up thanks to the thin air.
Sebastian Baez vs Cristian Garin Best Bet
The metrics also favour the Argentinian here. His blended clay-court elo rating is just 70 points higher, but – as bad as Garin has been overall – because Baez was so poor on hard courts when taking into account the raw clay elo rating? Baez is nearly 150 points ahead.
As for hold plus break? Whether you want to look at data from the last 52 weeks on clay or just 2023 data, Baez has a healthy lead in that category as well.
I respect Garin potentially looking to have a big week in front of his home country (he could certainly use it with the way his ranking has plummeted the last few months), but I think that narrative is being factored in a bit too much here, and am happy to oppose him with a quality dirtballer in Baez at the price on offer.
- Selection: Baez to win
- Best Odds: 1.69 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 3/10
- Bonus: Baez -3 games at 2.12 odds with Pinnacle, using 2/10 stakes.
Odds as at 4:00 pm on March 1st, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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