Roman Safiullin vs Alexander Bublik Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/4/24

The first preview from the ATP’s Rolex Shanghai Masters of the day comes from the Roman Safiullin vs Alexander Bublik

Bublik’s win probability is just above 40%, while Safiullin is favored to win at 1.60 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s prediction for Safiullin vs Bublik is that Bublik will win.

Roman Safiullin vs Alexander Bublik Prediction: Hard to Trust Bublik Worth a Bet

• Prediction: Bublik to win
• Best Odds: 2.46
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 9:30 pm UK Time on October 3rd, 2024. 

The only possible reason for the market betting against Bublik so heavily has to be the recent form of the big Kazakh. Now, I’d probably agree with the movement if he looked like there was a major lack of motivation in the last few months. 

That simply hasn’t been the case though. Several of his most recent losses have been close affairs and we’ll go over that a bit more in a second, but more importantly, almost all of the defeats during this stretch have come against players I rate more highly than Safiullin.

Slight underdog? I might pass here. Down near a 40% valuation, I’m happy to take a risk backing the mercurial world No. 26.

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Roman Safiullin Recent Form

As much as I mentioned Bublik’s struggles above, it’s not as though Safiullin has been setting the world on fire himself.

Since winning a Challenger in Cary, North Carolina before the U.S. Open he hasn’t been able to string together two wins, hasn’t beaten anyone anywhere near the level of Bublik in terms of talent, and has had some real clunker matches as well.

To make him a fairly clear favorite with all that taken into account is a mistake in my books and I’m happy to oppose him.

Ironically, two of his better matches have come against pretty tough opponents, with him having led both Jannik Sinner and Juncheng Shang by a set before allowing them to come back.

If Corentin Moutet or an aging Stan Wawrinka is your best win in a few months, however, I’m not going to be able to back you against someone as talented as Bublik at a price of around 1.60.

Alexander Bublik Recent Form

Okay, so I made mention of the struggles Bublik has experienced of late earlier. A lot of that simply has to do with some tough draws. Dating back to Wimbledon though, he’s lost tour matches to Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz (both top-15 players) at Wimbledon and the Olympics, Ben Shelton in Montreal, Jerry Shang twice (once in five sets, the other time by one break of serve in a week that Shang lifted the trophy) and Flavio Cobolli in a third set tiebreak. Emerging stars and established players. He also has a loss at Davis Cup as a massive favorite, but as one of the many Russian-born Kazakhs, there are questions about how seriously he takes international competition.

Now, Safiullin isn’t exactly a pushover if conditions are playing at medium or medium quick speeds, but he certainly isn’t as strong as any of the names mentioned above other than maybe Cobolli.

Bublik has a massive first serve, moves decently for his height, and even has some variety in his locker in the form of slices and the willingness (maybe to a fault) to implement the drop-shot.

I don’t think this is the typical “mail it in” end to the season from Bublik judging by his recent matches and think the 2.46 price is lovely.

Roman Safiullin vs Alexander Bublik H2H – Stat of the Match

There is no prior professional match to dissect between these two. They played an exhibition during the COVID shutdown in 2020 which Safiullin won. Again, that’s an exhibition and on clay, so I’m not going to consider that in my handicap in the least.

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