Rebeka Masarova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Ningbo Open Expert Tip: Masarova in Favourable Matchup to Advance

Rebeka Masarova vs Linda Fruhvirtova (Ningbo Open): Monday, September 25th

Another week brings us another pair of events from the WTA Tour. After Maria Sakkari was able to lift a much-needed trophy in Guadalajara and Xiyu Wang won in Guangzhou, this week we have a 500-level event in Tokyo, as well as the 250 Ningbo Open in China.

It’s the latter that brings us our Monday preview, as the night session match features Rebeka Masarova vs Linda Fruhvirtova.

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In this article:

• Rebeka Masarova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Expert Tip
• Rebeka Masarova Recent Form
• Linda Fruhvirtova Recent Form
• Rebeka Masarova H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Rebeka Masarova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Expert Tip

Tough not to oppose Fruhvirtova in this matchup for a few reasons.

First and foremost, the standout teenager from late last year and earlier this year has been in dreadful form entering this event.

The second big reason is the difference between the serves for each player. While Masarova has one of the bigger serves you’ll see on a quicker hard-court at this relatively low level tournament, Fruhvirtova’s serve has been downright awful.

Between the form and the vulnerabilities in that department, it’s hard to have Fruhvirtova as an underdog of fewer than five games and even then it should be a relatively expensive -5.

• Expert Tip: Masarova -4.5 Games at 2.00 with Bet365, using 4/10 stakes.
  Note: Also available at 2.02 odds with Pinnacle.

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on September 25th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Rebeka Masarova Recent Form

It’s been a pretty nice 2023 season for the Spaniard, who is currently at a career-high ranking of 64, with several high-level ITF runs and some WTA success over the course of the last eight months or so.

She got her Asian hard-court swing underway last week in Guangzhou, where she lost to the eventual finalist in Magda Linette, keeping the Pole within her grasp in both sets.

She added a pair of victories along the way there, and should be feeling like she has momentum on her side as she kicks off her quest for a successful showing in Ningbo.

Equipped with an incredibly powerful serve and strong flat forehand, her game is perfectly suited for success in these conditions, where bigger hitters tend to thrive.

Linda Fruhvirtova Recent Form

It’s amazing what one year can change in the world of tennis for a player.

Around this time last year, the youngster from the Czech Republic was flying high after winning the title in Chennai, India, turning heads among the commentary class and cementing herself as one of the better young players in the game.

Fast forward to late September 2023 and we’ve heard very little about the 18-year-old in recent months.

That’s because she’s won just five matches at tour level since March, with a few of them being in qualifying draws. It’s been a miserable summer for the elder Fruhvirtova, and the pressure will only mount in the coming months.

Now out of the top-100 after dropping those points from Chennai, she will be forced to defend fourth round points in January come the Australian Open.

Needless to say, she could use a strong showing this fall.

Now, let’s take a look at why the wins have been few and far between. For me, it all comes down to the serve. To say it’s a weakness would be an understatement. In fact, among the top-150, it may be one of the more vulnerable serves on tour.

It’s not just that she lacks pace – plenty of women in the top-100 have that issue – it’s more that she does very little to protect the lack of pace, and even worse, she hits a slew of double faults which only compounds the issue.

Throw in not being able to hit a flatter ball, and the serve can be punished on clay due to its lack of pace and her groundstrokes on hard courts because she can’t take time away from her opponents.

Rebeka Masarova vs Linda Fruhvirtova H2H – Stat of the Match

The only saving graces for the teen in this one? A lead in the head-to-head of 2-0 (though her game last year to this year is vastly different) and her only success since March came on quicker grass courts. With the courts in this region playing pretty quickly, perhaps her serve won’t be as poor as it has been for the last several months.

That said, I still expect an uphill battle for Fruhvirtova. As previously mentioned, this may be one of the larger discrepancies in service effectiveness you’ll find at a WTA 250 tournament.

Not only from an eye test standpoint, but even statistically, the mismatch is sizable. Over the last 52 weeks on hard courts at the main tour level, Masarova’s hold rate has an edge of over 20%, she double faults just over half as often and wins nearly 9% more points on serve than Fruhvirtova. Those are significant gaps.

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