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Horse Racing Rebecca Peterson vs Andreea Mitu Open Angers Arena Loire Expert Tip: Talented Hard Courter to Be Too Much for Romanian
Rebecca Peterson vs Andreea Mitu (Open Angers Arena Loire): Wednesday, December 6th
Lovely win from Ylena In Albon, who ended up closing at -4 games, proving just how wrong the -3 we bet was. I still think -4 games was the incorrect handicap, but we take a nice straight-sets, max-stakes win and move on!
Wednesday it’s another large edge on the betting markets, as we head back to the Open Angers Arena Loire to preview Rebecca Peterson vs Andreea Mitu for our WTA preview!
For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.
In this article:
- Rebecca Peterson vs Andreea Mitu Expert Tip
- Rebecca Peterson Recent Form
- Andreea Mitu Recent Form
- Rebecca Peterson vs Andreea Mitu H2H Stat of the Match
- Gamble Responsibly
Rebecca Peterson vs Andreea Mitu Expert Tip
Much like yesterday, this is an incredibly poor handicap for the surface that these two are playing on. Yesterday we backed a red clay courter who is used to much better competition taking on a hard courter and today we’re doing the exact same thing, but backing a hard court player against a more clay-centric opponent. The other funny part? We’re once again backing the player who has typically played against much tougher competition!
This time of the year provides some excellent opportunities for qualitative bettors in terms of value, and I’m not going to take the max stakes winner and play it safe the rest of the week. I’m looking to attack yet another sub 4-game handicap that should be closer to -4.5 or -5 games by my numbers.
Odds as at 3:30 am UK Time on December 6th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Read on for more expert insights.
Rebecca Peterson Recent Form
It’s been a tough few years injury wise for the veteran from Sweden. It’s a shame too, because for the few months she’s been healthy in the last 24 months or so, she put on quite the display earlier this year when she went to a big ITF final, qualified and reached the final in Merida at the WTA Tour level and then qualified and made the second week at Indian Wells, losing only to Coco Gauff.
She’s a hard courter by nature and when healthy and playing her best, is a top-50 talent in the world. She has a decent serve, can dictate with her forehand and isn’t particularly error prone.
Now, I know someone that is perennially injured has to have that factor priced into their matches in the betting markets. In a WTA 250 first round tilt with a decent hard courter, I’d understand the hesitation and -3.5 game handicap. In this spot, however, I think we’re seeing a huge overreaction.
She did come back last week and lost in three sets against Elsa Jacquemot in Andorra, but that was her first match since the U.S. Open. It was also against a better server, player overall and a rapidly improving hard courter in the Frenchwoman.
With her legs now under her a bit more and against a clay court ITF player, I’m happy to back her to get the job done this time around.
Andreea Mitu Recent Form
What is there to say about Mitu other than she’s ranked outside of the top-200 and has played about four times as many matches on clay courts as she has on indoor hard courts so far this year?
That itself should really help clarify why I think that this handicap is off, but let’s dig a bit more into her season.
Her most recent hard court events have seen her beat Renata Jamrichova in three sets. The Slovakian is very talented, but still just 16 years old. She followed that up with a resounding defeat at the hands of Elena Milovanovic – a 22-year-old that had a good week, but is still emerging on tour and shouldn’t be beating a nearly top-200 player by seven games.
Prior to that, she’d been racking up wins at lower level ITF events to improve her ranking, beating some relatively no name opposition.
Even earlier in the season, there are no noteworthy victories on hard courts for her, other than a win against Clara Tauson in a match she was being dominated in before Tauson picked up a physical issue and retired in the deciding set.
I’ll gladly oppose a journeywoman clay courter here on a surface that should be awful for her.
Rebecca Peterson vs Andreea Mitu H2H – Stat of the Match
I’m wondering if somehow, some way, the market has elected to let this head-to-head record factor into the price. If so, it would be an incredibly irresponsible move, considering these two haven’t played in eight years and the two matches they have played were both on clay courts.
That would flip the tables in terms of who would have the surface advantage and help neutralise Peterson’s talent advantage. Mitu won both encounters, but I can’t think of a less relevant pair of matches to evaluate.
Give me the player with the raw hard court elo rating that is nearly 400 points higher.
SAFER GAMBLING
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