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Horse Racing Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Rome, Paula Badosa vs Jelena Ostapenko
Paula Badosa vs Jelena Ostapenko Best Bet: Wednesday, May 17th
Not to be the second time around as Beatriz Haddad Maia and Anhelina Kalinina played what may be the match of the tournament. Incredible stuff from Kalinina who hit flat, low-margin backhands into small targets and rarely missed, while running everything down. Hard to beat a player just redlining that way.
For Wednesday, it’s the quarterfinal matchup between Paula Badosa and Jelena Ostapenko that we’ll take a deeper look at!
In this article:
Paula Badosa vs Jelena Ostapenko Preview
May 16th, 14:00 (UK Time)
While Ostapenko is a tough opponent with her raw power for anyone, she’ll be in trouble if Badosa plays the way she did on Tuesday in her three-set victory over Karolina Muchova.
Ultimately, Muchova was a tough opponent for the Spaniard, simply because she possesses more dynamism to her game than Ostapenko. The latter plays a fairly straightforward “swing as hard as possible from the baseline style,” where Muchova kept Badosa on her feet and had a strong blend of power, serving, slicing, drop-shots and net play. Against someone as strong as Badosa, not possessing more tools could spell trouble.
Her lack of consistent breaks of serve in her last match against an underpowered Daria Kasatkina was also a concern. She generated plenty of break-point chances, but her situational play lacked and Kasatkina was easily able to outmanoeuvre her tactically and at one point fought off nine consecutive break points.
That’s another part of the game where I simply don’t believe Badosa will leave her as many openings.
As for Badosa, she has an incredibly well-rounded game. She can find free points behind her serve (something Ostapenko doesn’t do as well, as her power is more pronounced in baseline rallies than on her serve), moves well and will take the ball early to hit through an open court if she has her opposition out of position on slower courts. Badosa is also the more steady and consistent player in this tilt to add to her advantage.
Paula Badosa vs Jelena Ostapenko Best Bet
Just because of the way Badosa matches up against Ostapenko, I have her as a larger favourite. There are just far too many things that she is better at than her Latvian counterpart.
I have this closer to four games on the handicap, even with Badosa’s three-hour match on Tuesday factored in (Ostapenko had the day).
I’m happy to give up the three-game head start to back the world No. 35 in this one.
- Selection: Badosa -3 Games
- Best Odds: 1.88 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on May 17th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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