Oleksii Krutykh vs Gerard Campana Lee Del Monte Lisboa Belém Open Expert Tip: Young Clay Courter One to Watch Tuesday

Oleksii Krutykh vs Gerard Campana Lee (Del Monte Lisboa Belém Open): Tuesday, October 3rd

The Joao Lucas Reis da Silva bet looked promising for the first set and early in the second, as he had a break point for a set and break lead, before falling apart and losing in a rather lopsided fashion down the stretch.

For Tuesday, it’s another clay-court underdog that I’m looking to back on the ATP Challenger Tour, but this time at the Del Monte Lisboa Belém Open. Let’s delve into Oleksii Krutykh vs Gerard Campana Lee.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Oleksii Krutykh vs Gerard Campana Lee Expert Tip
• Oleksii Krutykh Recent Form
• Gerard Campana Lee Recent Form
• Oleksii Krutykh vs Gerard Campana Lee H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Oleksii Krutykh vs Gerard Campana Lee Expert Tip

Simply put, I’m backing the player I think is more natural on clay in this one, as the 19-year-old Campana Lee is far more comfortable on the dirt, while Krutykh is probably more used to playing on hard courts – which his record this year on each surface reflects.

Krutykh can extend points and grind players down, which can work on clay, but the footwork, movement and the way he hits the ball are lagging relative to those that have played on the surface for longer periods.

Campana Lee may represent South Korea, but he does have ties to Portugal and has played almost exclusively this season on clay as well.

Finally, if you think crowd support may help players, this is going to be one of the featured matches of the day, as it’s last on the second court at the venue (with a potential court change if things drag on in the matches scheduled ahead of time). I’d expect the fans on hand at the venue to congregate on Court Lisboa to round out the day and support the teenager.

Expert Tip: Campana Lee to win at 2.75 with Bet365, using 4/10 stakes. Note: Available at 2.80 with Pinnacle.

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on October 3rd, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Oleksii Krutykh Recent Form

Prior to qualifying for this main draw, the clay courts had not been kind to Krutykh prior to this week.

With his first serve being somewhat neutralised for the most part and the flatter hitting not being the most effective strategy on clay, he was just 9-13 on the pro circuit prior to this week. Wins against a Portuguese player that was only playing thanks to the event being on home soil and Carlos Taberner, who hasn’t been right since returning from an injury absence and still generated 12 break point opportunities in that match, don’t do a whole heck of a lot to convince me he’s finding himself on the surface either.

I’m actually pretty surprised that Krutykh didn’t sign up to play in Alicante or Mouilleron-le-Captif on hard courts. They’re both in Europe, so it’s not like he’d be paying for travel to North America to get onto the hard courts, and his game would be more effective there.

Gerard Campana Lee Recent Form

Since putting together a stretch of three really impressive ITF runs on the dirt (title, semifinal appearance, finalist) and reaching the semifinals in Liberec at the Challenger level, we’ve seen a bit of a dip in the form for the 19-year-old.

Perhaps it’s the rigours of a long season, but I don’t think the recent losses would justify the implied probabilities of just over 35% that we’re seeing in the market at the moment.

He’s a natural on the surface, can hit with a decently heavy ball, dictate play and has enough consistency to hang around in long exchanges.

Even his losses of late have been at the hands of perennial tour-level player Fabio Fognini (in three sets), Gauthier Onclin (who is having the best year of his young career in 2023) and Oriol Roca Batalla (an underpowered, but extremely tricky wall from the baseline and clay-court specialist).

I’m not ready to write his 2023 campaign off just yet.

Oleksii Krutykh vs Gerard Campana Lee H2H – Stat of the Match

Much like our women’s preview for Tuesday, with Campana Lee being relatively new to professional tennis, these two have yet to meet at the pro level.

Statistically, Krutykh has slight leads in both his raw clay elo rating and his 2023 hold plus break percentage, but I don’t think either of those numbers would justify this big of a gap in pricing.

Further, I think that the pricing here only reflects the more quantitative side of things and fails to apply the more qualitative context, which is where our edge lies.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.