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Horse Racing Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP French Open, Casper Ruud vs Nicolas Jarry
Casper Ruud vs Nicolas Jarry Best Bet: Monday, June 5th
Another loss at the margins, as Fabio Fognini goes five sets with Sebastian Ofner, but ultimately loses. Fun stuff, all these close losses. Would sure be nice to get some going the other way any time now.
For Monday, our preview takes a look at the rematch from Geneva between Casper Ruud and Nicolas Jarry.
In this article:
Casper Ruud vs Nicolas Jarry Preview
June 5th, 11:30 (UK Time)
What an incredible overreaction to that tight loss in Geneva, as Ruud moves from a favourite in the 1.30-1.35 odds region, all the way to 1.56 to win the match.
There are a few reasons to believe that this is a big-time overcorrection in the betting markets.
For starters, that match in Switzerland – in totally different conditions – saw Ruud up a set and lose two incredibly tight ones in the second and third sets.
Then, there are the conditions I alluded to. Geneva is about 400 metres above sea level, and that altitude is generally where we see the Chilean and his big serve and forehand combination thrive the most. In fact, he won an event on home soil in Santiago as well, in a somewhat similar elevation.
The French Open is played in much slower conditions, where Ruud’s weight of shot is incredibly effective and he should get a look at far more chances on return to break the big Jarry serve.
Finally, the best-of-five set format also favours the Norwegian, as beating someone in best-of-three is one thing, winning a third set against a player that is more talented and better in the conditions of the day is another.
Yet we actually get a much cheaper price to back Ruud, despite everything being more favourable to him.
Casper Ruud vs Nicolas Jarry Best Bet
I think it’s fairly obvious at this point that I’ll be backing Ruud in this spot.
He’s actually been pushed in his last two matches, with Zhizhen Zhang redlining his way to the opening set and Giulio Zeppieri snagging a close third set from him as well.
The difference? While those guys are both explosive like Jarry, they’re far more athletic than the big man from Chile.
It’s always tough to close good players out in straight sets, but I don’t think this handicap should be as low as three games. Jarry did face 15 break points against the best player he’s played to this point in Tommy Paul. Ruud should have his chances to avenge his loss in Geneva.
- Selection: Ruud -3 Games
- Best Odds: 1.90 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
- Bonus: Ruud -1.5 sets at 2.00 odds with Pinnacle, using 2/10 stakes.
Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on June 5th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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