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Boxing Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Milos Raonic vs Jordan Thompson
Milos Raonic vs Jordan Thompson Best Bet: Thursday, June 15th
Well, unless something changes soon, Albert Ramos Vinolas’ career may be just about done. He no longer constructs points like he used to, he’s late to balls, rendering his defensive play less useful and he’s getting up there in age.
For Thursday, it’s back to the grass-court events at tour level and the match featuring Milos Raonic and Jordan Thompson for our Thursday preview from the men’s action.
In this article:
Milos Raonic vs Jordan Thompson Preview
June 15th, 15:30 (UK Time)
What a great story to see the big Canadian back on the pro circuit after nearly two years without playing. Not to mention, he’s making his return on the grass – where his most memorable moments have happened.
Armed with a huge serve and powerful groundstrokes, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the 32-year-old has been pretty strong on the slice green courts.
Thing is, he’s still played just one pro match in several years. The player he beat? Miomir Kecmanovic. Someone who doesn’t typically fare well above the 250 level, has had a poor year and doesn’t really have the power or grass court chops to be as dominant as you’d expect a player of his rank to be when taking on someone who has been away from the game for so long.
Enter Jordan Thompson, a more natural grass courter, with a better pedigree than Kecmanovic, more weapons and who appreciates the slicker courts that lead to lower bouncing balls much more.
This is a much better test for Raonic to see if he has come back and jumped right back into being competitive.
I’m not so sure this great story will continue beyond Thursday.
Milos Raonic vs Jordan Thompson Best Bet
There are two reasons I’m seeing a decent amount of value in backing the Australian to get this done.
Forget that he matches up far better than Kecmanovic in this spot, but just in terms of breakeven percentage and implied probabilities, is Jordan Thompson really only expected to win this match in this particular situation just 43.5% of the time? I find that hard to believe.
Further, think about where this would have been priced had it been Raonic’s first match back. Thompson would be the overwhelming favourite. Now, we certainly have to credit Raonic for being more prepared than anticipated, but I think by any reasonable metric, this price point is a pretty strong overreaction to a win against an out-of-form player without many weapons off of his favourite surface.
As much as I’d love to see my fellow Canadian succeed, the value is squarely on the side of his counterpart from down under in this one.
- Selection: Thompson to win
- Best Odds: 2.3 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 6/10
Odds as at 6:00 am UK Time on June 15th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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