Daniil Medvedev vs Dominik Koepfer Prediction, Odds, Player Stats, Form, H2H, 3/26/24

Leading off the day’s action on Stadium Court from the Miami Open, it’s our Medvedev vs Koepfer prediction. Let’s look more at the first match of the day at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament. Koepfer’s win probability is only 15.9% while Medvedev is favored to win at 1.15 odds. The handicap is five games and the total games line is 20. Our Medvedev vs Koepfer prediction is for Medvedev to cover the five-game handicap. 

Medvedev vs Koepfer Prediction: Medvedev to Keep Rolling in Title Defence

• Prediction: Medvedev -5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.92
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 2:30 am UK Time on March 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m not going to try to make the case that Medvedev at 87% is being undervalued by the betting markets, but I will say that I believe the correlation between his odds of winning the match and his handicap is a bit off. At least in this particular matchup. Perhaps if Koepfer had a dominant serve and big forehand to follow it up and win easy points I could understand why Medvedev is a five-game favorite, rather than 5.5 or six games.

Against someone who can’t generate many cheap points, it’s harder to see. Medvedev typically finds at least one lopsided set against opponents that don’t have many weapons, and Koepfer falls squarely into that category. My Medvedev vs Koepfer prediction is for the Russian to cover the 5-game handicap. 

Daniil Medvedev Form

For the third straight round, it’s a pretty good draw for the Russian No. 1, whose tennis is perfectly suited to playing against someone who can’t hit through him and is likely to wear down under his grueling defensive pressure and have too tough a time returning his cannon of a serve.

There’s a reason the world No. 4 is the defending champion here. The courts are now a bit quicker than they were in the past, which certainly plays to Medvedev’s comfort, while not being so quick that his ability to stand behind the baseline and grind to extend points until he forces a mistake from his opponent is neutralized.

The fact he doesn’t commit many errors from either his forehand or backhand means that if you don’t have the power to open space and then hit through it before he tracks the ball down with his incredible wingspan, you’re going to have to get creative to win points.

His last two opponents certainly didn’t possess that kind of power and were both dismissed with relative ease when all was said and done.

It’s telling that both faded as the match progressed as well, using up all their variety and tactics to keep him guessing early, while he was prepared for their tactics in the second sets, forcing them to play with less margin and make more mistakes. The result? A pair of lopsided second-set scorelines.

I’ll back him to do it again on Tuesday, against another lefty like Cam Norrie (his opponent last round), who can’t do all that much to stop him.

Dominik Koepfer Form

It’s tough to parse Koepfer’s season to this point. The No. 50 has racked up the wins, taking down one of the best fields of the year at the Challenger level in Canberra and making a pair of ATP quarters before this run to the second week in Miami, with a pair of come-from-behind wins against Marcos Giron and Ugo Humbert.

Now, Humbert was the big win for him, but with the way his fellow lefty can commit errors and plays with a lack of margin for error, it’s not really comparable to the tall task he has facing him on Tuesday.

He was able to target the backhand of Humbert with precise serves and run down enough balls to drag errors out of the Frenchman. Good luck targeting Medvedev’s backhand or hoping for him to cough up a slew of unforced errors.

He hasn’t lost by more than five games to this point in 2024, but I’d also posit that he hasn’t played anyone near Medvedev’s level other than Alexander Zverev who played some shaky tennis throughout that one.

Daniil Medvedev vs Dominik Koepfer H2H – Stat of the Match

The other two times these two met were both at the U.S. Open. Medvedev has won six of the seven sets they’ve played, with two-thirds of those being by a 6-3 score or better.

It’s been a few years since they have squared off, but there’s no doubt that since 2021, Medvedev has made far more strides than his German counterpart.

As for their elo ratings, even with Koepfer finding more success at tour level, he still trails by almost 400 points.

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