Maximilian Marterer vs Nuno Borges European Open Expert Tip: Big Serving Marterer a Great Pick to Reach Quarters

Maximilian Marterer vs Nuno Borges (European Open): Thursday, October 19th

Lovely stuff from Mark Lajal, who didn’t just keep things closer than expected, but generated eight times the break point chances compared to the heavy favourite, Arthur Fils. Sadly, he couldn’t convert any of them and played his worst when it mattered most in the tiebreaks, costing him a very close match.

For Thursday, we’ll stick with Antwerp and the European Open and take a look at Maximilian Marterer vs Nuno Borges for our ATP preview.

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In this article:

• Maximilian Marterer vs Nuno Borges Expert Tip
• Maximilian Marterer Recent Form
• Nuno Borges Recent Form
• Maximilian Marterer vs Nuno Borges H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Maximilian Marterer vs Nuno Borges Expert Tip

I am really big on Marterer’s prospects in this match for a multitude of reasons.

For starters, I think we’re seeing an overvaluation on Borges off a run at the Shenzhen Challenger last week against a fairly weak field.

That also means he had quite the travel spot back to Europe, with potential fatigue setting in at some point as well.

Next, his win over Dominik Koepfer was actually pretty impressive to watch, but it was far from dominant when all was said and done, and this was against an opponent who is underpowered and coming off an ankle injury that saw him retire in his last match at the U.S. Open.

Finally, Marterer has the perfect game to thrive in these conditions and he’s done just that through qualifying and his opening round match. What’s more impressive to me is that he’s managed to win every set by at least a break and hasn’t needed a tiebreak at any point along the way (which isn’t a common theme at this event on these quick courts).

To me, this was a candidate for a ladder style backing, where we back him on several different handicaps with increasing odds to jack up our potential returns. With Marterer proving he can win by margin and Borges not having the most potent game, I’m happy to do just that.

• Expert Tips: Marterer -1.5 Games at 1.83 with Bet365, using 4/10 stakes,
  -3 Games at 2.42 with Pinnacle, using 2/10 stakes and
  -3.5 Games at 2.70 with Unibet, using 2/10 stakes.

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on October 19th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Read on for more expert insights.

Maximilian Marterer Recent Form

In that same period since June that has seen Borges struggle, Marterer has been rebuilding his ranking, thanks to a qualifying for WImbledon and reaching the third round, winning the Amersfoort Challenger and making a pair of Challenger semifinals in Tulln, Austria and Alicante, Spain.

The big lefty has a huge serve, big forehand and is surprisingly fleet of foot for his height.

His added length also means that he should be able to square up a few more of Borges’ serves than his fellow German southpaw did on Wednesday.

He’s looked right at home in Antwerp so far this week, with the courts rewarding his massive serve and his athletic ability and length helping him return in conditions that aren’t exactly conducive to that part of the game.

He’s broken his opponents seven times through three matches, generating 15 break points. On serve? He’s yet to be broken, facing a grand total of five break points through six sets played.

Some incredibly impressive stuff, that.

Nuno Borges Recent Form

He may have had a really nice week in China prior to this event, but that’s about all the success the 26-year-old has had in recent times.

Prior to that run in Shenzhen at the Challenger level, Borges had just one win on the pro tour since mid-June (he did win twice for his country at the Davis Cup). That win? Against an ageing Mikhail Kukushkin that required a comeback from a set and break down.

Needless to say, he’s a bit underpowered for the main tour and to succeed, he’s needed to go up against players like Kukushkin and Koepfer, who can’t hit him off the court and who he can generate pressure in return games against.

Otherwise, what’s tended to happen is that he gets tangled up in serve-oriented matches, holds his own (quite literally), but can be tripped up by one poor service game and simply can’t wrestle the break back.

That’s exactly the kind of dynamic that should present itself in this matchup more often than not.

Maximilian Marterer vs Nuno Borges H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meeting between these two. Should be a fun matchup between two contrasting styles with Marterer surely looking to play more front foot tennis, while Borges will hope his serve plays up on these courts to find him some cheap points and then looking to counterpunch and outlast the German from the baseline.

In terms of hard-court prowess, Marterer has been far more capable of holding his own over the last year at tour level. His hold plus break percentage sits at 100%, which is decent, though not that notable.

Borges, on the other hand, comes in at just 89% – a well below average number and one that doesn’t inspire much confidence, considering the aforementioned matchup issues for the Portuguese.

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