Pedro Martinez vs Francesco Passaro Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, February 26th

Three tournaments are on offer this week on the ATP Tour. That means a lot to choose from for our previews this week.

Let’s start off with a Monday preview from South America at the Movistar Chile Open, with Pedro Martinez vs Francesco Passaro.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Our Martinez vs Passaro prediction is for Passaro to win.

In this article:

• Pedro Martinez vs Francesco Passaro Prediction
• Pedro Martinez Recent Form
• Francesco Passaro Recent Form
• Pedro Martinez vs Francesco Passaro H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

Pedro Martinez vs Francesco Passaro (Movistar Chile Open) Prediction

• Prediction: Passaro to win
• Best Odds: 2.46
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:15 am UK Time on February 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I can’t pass up the chance to back the underdog here for two primary reasons. First, Martinez is a very hot and cold player and we know he can no-show against much worse players than Passaro.

I understand his pedigree and overall results in the past would suggest he deserves to be the favourite, but when we’re talking probabilities, he struggles far too often for me to believe he wins this well over 60% of the time.

The other reason is that Passaro is one of the many young Italians who’s shown the ability to play some really strong tennis. He has a natural feel for clay and can play an incredibly aggressive game. It certainly requires a bit of refinement, but the talent is absolutely there for him to compete with and beat someone like Martinez.

Read on for more expert insights.

Pedro Martinez Recent Form

Martinez’s penchant for being streaky (both with winning and losing) isn’t a new concept in 2024, but it has certainly been another start to a season that’s followed that script.

He reached the final in Tenerife at a Challenger tournament without dropping a set in late January, but in his other three tournaments this season, he’s won just one match (a close two-set win against a clay courter on an indoor hard court) and has been beaten routinely in each of the three losses.

Perhaps it’s because even when he’s on his game and not committing a lot of unforced errors he may not have the match on his racquet, but when he is struggling to find the court from the baseline, he finds himself in deep trouble.

That was evident in Australia when Passaro took the match to him and beat him by seven games, and if he’s not careful that could very well take place once more on Monday.

Francesco Passaro Recent Form

We actually haven’t seen the 23-year-old in over a month. He started his season by playing a Challenger in Thailand, making his way to Australia to qualify at Melbourne Park for the “Happy Slam” and then going back to Nonthaburi, Thailand (just outside of Bangkok) to play the final of the three Challenger tournaments staged there.

His results were a mixed bag. He lost three very close matches to some decent Challenger level competition, and those were all quick conditions, where his explosiveness can be a strength, but his timing can be rushed and forced into errors.

This match should avoid the latter concerns for a few reasons. For starters, despite the altitude, the clay courts in Santiago won’t play nearly as fast as those in Nonthaburi or Melbourne.

The other key is that unlike Valentin Vacherot or Oliver Crawford (on a hard court) or even Nicolas Moreno de Alboran, Martinez – on a clay court, no less – isn’t really able to generate the kind of pace that can rush the Italian’s groundstrokes.

Now, can Passaro still play tennis that is far too erratic and hand the match over? Of course, it’s one of the things he still needs to clean up if he hopes to get back near his career-high ranking, but the likelihood of him committing errors decreases dramatically given the conditions and his opponent.

The odds here simply don’t reflect that, and that’s where we find our edge.

Pedro Martinez vs Francesco Passaro H2H – Stat of the Match

As I mentioned earlier, evaluating the raw talent of these two guys would certainly lead you to believe that Passaro actually has the more innate ability to dictate points.

That was on full display in Australia just over a month ago, when Passaro won in straight sets and by a dominant seven-game margin of victory against the Spaniard.

That was on hard courts, and past results aren’t necessarily predictive – especially for somewhat erratic players like Passaro – but it does reinforce the point I made about him being the better of the two if they’re both playing at the top of their games.

He could absolutely have a tough time out there on Monday and spray errors in the slight elevation of the Chilean capital. With a break-even percentage hovering around the 40% mark, however, my numbers have this as a smart bet to make.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.