Madison Keys vs Marketa Vondrousova U.S. Open Preview and Expert Tip: Keys to Please Home Crowd on Wednesday Night

Madison Keys vs Marketa Vondrousova (U.S. Open) Wednesday, September 6th

Good lord, that was a beatdown. Luckily, it was for minimal stakes. Jelena Ostapenko didn’t show up and then in press complained about the scheduling. Poor look, to say the least.

For our Wednesday preview from the WTA side of things, it’s day 2 of the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open. Let’s break down Madison Keys vs Marketa Vondrousova.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Madison Keys vs Marketa Vondrousova Expert Tip
• Madison Keys Recent Form
• Marketa Vondrousova Recent Form
• Madison Keys vs Marketa Vondrousova H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

Madison Keys vs Marketa Vondrousova Expert Tip

Well, in our tournament futures preview, we picked this exact quarter to target with a few higher-odds numbers. Wouldn’t you know, we get both of our selections into the quarterfinal, ensuring we put at least one of the two into the semifinals. Can’t complain about that! Some strong price evaluation there.

As for the tip for the match itself, I’m going with Keys here for a few reasons. First, she has the match on her racquet. Yes, Vondrousova can elicit unforced errors with the best of them, but with Keys’ power, if she can keep the ball in the court consistently, it’s her match to lose.

Secondly, the Czech ended up withdrawing from her doubles match on Tuesday and was in tears over letting her partner down (Barbora Strycova is playing in her last major tournament in New York). Her left arm was not 100% and she wanted her off day in singles to help ensure she can get it back as close to healthy as possible. That’s key (no pun intended), because she’s a lefty, and if that newly-improved serve isn’t firing, Keys is going to have far too many chances to break, considering how strong her serve is.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tips: Keys to win at 1.79 with Pinnacle, using 2/10 stakes.

Madison Keys Recent Form

It’s been a strong summer for the big-serving American, who has probably somehow flown a bit under the radar. For instance, she was about 50/1 to win the tournament prior to it getting underway, despite having a title on the grass in Eastbourne, a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon and losses on hard courts only to Elise Mertens (not great, in all honesty) and Maria Sakkari (a pretty darn good player).

Now she has another four wins under her belt in New York City, will surely have the crowd on her side on Arthur Ashe Stadium, is on her preferred hard courts and has made a final in New York before, losing to compatriot Sloane Stephens.

I don’t see any reason to be overly concerned with Keys here and on a hard court, with her reputation and incredibly powerful game, I’ll back her to move on more often than not when she’s playing someone that can’t match her top level.

Marketa Vondrousova Recent Form

Speaking of strong summers, how about Vondrousova?

After returning at the start of the year with a deflated ranking, the 24-year-old has stormed into the top-10. She won Wimbledon in July and her only losses this summer were to world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and the surging Coco Gauff, who herself is still alive.

Her game has always been about solidity from both wings, the ability to hit both her forehand and backhand anywhere on the court and generate angles that pull her opponents off court and sets up her next shot with a lot of open space.

2023 has seen her add a bit more potency to her first serve though, and now she’s able to find some cheaper points behind that as well.

The potential injury to her serving arm does concern me though, and the fact that she can’t find cheap points nearly as easily as Keys has me concerned that her serve will be under pressure far more often, which isn’t exactly a recipe for success.

Madison Keys vs Marketa Vondrousova Head to Head – Stat of the Match

Surprisingly, we’ve yet to see this matchup before on the professional tour. It should be a fun first meeting if Vondrousova is close to healthy, as it does provide an excellent contrast in styles.

My stat of the match for this one has to be the hold rates for each of these women through four rounds. Madison Keys has been on a blistering pace, holding her serve nearly 95% of the time. That is an incredibly high number. Vondrousova is probably the best returner she’ll have played to this point, but even a reduction of 10% should still be enough to get her over the line.

For a return-oriented player, a hold rate of 76% isn’t actually the worst for the Czech. It simply doesn’t hold a candle to Keys however, and if she isn’t capable of finding ways into return games, I simply don’t see how there is a path to victory for her here.

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on September 6th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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