Daria Kasatkina vs Yulia Putintseva Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 29th

Here we look at the WTA draw which features what should be a war of attrition on court with Daria Kasatkina vs Yulia Putintseva.

Putintseva’s win probability is only 44% while Kasatkina is favoured to win at 1.70 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 21.5.

We have more previews up for the Mutua Madrid Open over on the expert insights page.

Our Kasatkina vs Putintseva prediction is for Kasatkina to win.

In this article:

• Daria Kasatkina vs Yulia Putintseva Prediction
• Daria Kasatkina Recent Form
• Yulia Putintseva Recent Form
• Daria Kasatkina vs Yulia Putintseva H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

Daria Kasatkina vs Yulia Putintseva (Mutua Madrid Open) Prediction: Kasatkina to Win Match of Expectedly Long Points

• Prediction: Kasatkina to win
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on April 29th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As well as Putintseva has played since Indian Wells, I’m a little sceptical about her price here in a matchup that doesn’t bode all that well for her.

There’s very little, if anything, that the Kazakh does better than Kasatkina. They ply their trade in a similar way, but Kasatkina is far more effective at executing that consistency-based brand of tennis.

Normally in a match that should feature a lot of long points, I’d lean towards it being a close one and tend to side with the underdog. In this case, however, the talent gap is larger than the implied probabilities would indicate.

Daria Kasatkina Recent Form

Kasatkina is also playing some strong tennis at the moment. I’d make the case that her form of going to the Charleston final and now Madrid’s second week means she’s not even behind Putintseva in the form department.

She won’t blow you off the court, but the matches she misses many shots are few and far between. She extends points well and can move the ball around the court with aplomb. She’s not one to wear down in physical battles and though she probably underutilises her aggression, it’s a part of her game she has certainly improved when she feels the need to draw on it.

Wins in recent tournaments have come against players one would expect her to beat, as well as players that she was an underdog against that are ranked near the top of the game.

I’m happy to back the better player who’s in form and that comes in around the 1.70 odds mark.

Yulia Putintseva Recent Form

I think the play of Putintseva of late has been impressive and the fact she’s racked up the wins in 1000 level events will serve her well when maintaining her ranking for at least the next year.

That said, I still find her to be a tad underpowered, and when a player relies as heavily as she does on opposition mistakes, this isn’t the type of match I’d want to back her, especially at this price point.

Her best wins between Indian Wells, Miami and Madrid have come against Ekaterina Alexandrova, Madison Keys and Qinwen Zheng. All tend to overhit and commit unforced errors at a decent rate and play with lower margin for error styles. The Zheng win also came via retirement, suggesting she wasn’t at her best.

She’s yet to drop a set this week, so I can see why the market believes in her here, and I’ll be more impressed if she does pull off this win, but I’m not there just yet.

Daria Kasatkina vs Yulia Putintseva H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone match came too long ago to really matter, but Kasatkina did come away with a dominant straight-sets win at Wimbledon in 2018.

A 130-point gap in blended clay elo ratings also suggests that the market has been a bit premature to value Putintseva as much as it does.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.