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Boxing Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Budapest, Kaja Juvan vs Maria Timofeeva
Kaja Juvan vs Maria Timofeeva Best Bet: Friday, July 21st
Ana Bogdan led 5-0 and had set points for a 6-0 set AND a 6-1 set. Anyone want to venture a guess at what happened? Game collapsed. Bet lost. Same old story as every other article. The most fun part is that she ended up winning the third set 6-1, as a reminder she was the superior player by a wide margin. Love to see it.
It’s once again a reminder about sample sizes. Luckily the rest of my bets continue to overcome the mental fragility of the players I write about (you can find those bets @TidbitsTennis on Twitter).
Let’s see whose chances we can destroy on Friday, as we preview the match between Kaja Juvan and Maria Timofeeva from Budapest.
In this article:
Kaja Juvan vs Maria Timofeeva Preview
Fri, July 21st, 10:00 (UK Time)
Well, Juvan did well for us earlier this week, and we’re once again seeing some value in backing her as a favourite in the quarterfinal round.
It seems as though the early-season struggles are well and truly in the rearview mirror for the 22-year-old, as her last month of results has seen her qualify for Wimbledon, win a round in the main draw and fall only to a top-30 player on tour. She’s backed that up this week in the Hungarian capital by reaching the final eight as a qualifier – racking up five sets won by a double break along the way.
Formerly ranked inside the top-60, Juvan has been through a lot in recent times and is looking to climb back into the top-100 (she would be on the precipice of doing so if she were to win the title this week). She’s got a strong game from the baseline off both wings, with the ability to produce some offensive play, while also remaining rather consistent.
The serve isn’t really able to generate many free points, but it’s not exactly a liability either.
After having beaten Astra Sharma already this week, Juvan has another chance to attack a somewhat favourable draw, with another hard courter waiting in Timofeeva.
The 19-year-old is one of the surprise packages of the week in Hungary to this point. She’s not really shown this kind of prowess on clay courts in the past, and she’s fortunate to even be in this position, considering she lost in qualifying.
Her second-round win was a stunning one, having beaten the impressive Diana Shnaider on her favourite surface, but the 6-1, 6-1 scoreline makes one wonder if that’s at least somewhat of an outlier result. Not only was Timofeeva hitting an unsustainable amount of lower-margin shots, but Shnaider looked sluggish throughout and landed fewer than 40% of her first serves in the second set.
If she can repeat that performance on Friday, then good on her. In terms of likelihoods, however, I’m going to side with the much more talented player and natural clay courter to get the job done here.
Kaja Juvan vs Maria Timofeeva Best Bet
I once again have the Slovenian as a larger favourite on the handicap than the market does. I have Juvan between five and 5.5 games better than her Russian counterpart heading into this, while the market has presented us with a 4.5-game handicap. It’s a tad bit expensive, but certainly worth playing.
- Selection: Juvan -4.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.84 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on July 21st, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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